It’s that time of year again when our beloved restaurants and stores begin to open, our friends start readying their homes for another season and the extraordinary whales return here to swim in the welcoming waters of Provincetown.
As we move into our spring selling season, this year’s first quarter results are even more difficult than usual to analyze. We are experiencing an inventory drought like we haven’t seen before. Supply has been depleted from the buying surge that began as the pandemic hit in 2020. Heightened demand and absorption continued through 2021, prices continued to rise and unit sales decreased. Last year, Provincetown condo sales were down a total of 21%. In the first quarter of this year condo sales are down 34%. And the average sale price is up a staggering 67% to $1.046M! These numbers are enough to shock anyone, even the real estate obsessed like all of us.
As unit sales are down significantly for the first quarter, that gives us even less of a sample from which to derive trends. For example, only seven single-family properties were sold in Provincetown in Q1, and only two in Truro. There is simply not a lot of data to analyze, but I will do my best to provide insights as well as provide all the empirical data which is in the charts below.
PROVINCETOWN
Condominium sales in Provincetown were down 34% to 27, while the average sale price increased 64% to $1.022M. There are only eight condos on the market excluding four listings at Seashore Point, the over-55 residences. For some interesting context, 10 years ago in 2012, there were 131 available condominiums on the market!
Single-family home sales were down 36% to seven. The average sale price was up 15% to $1.988M. There are only five on the market as of April 15. Ten years ago, there were 51 single-family properties on the market.
TRURO & WELFLEET
In Truro, the average sales price of the two single-family homes sold was $3.070M. While a dramatic number and a crazy headline, don’t read too much into it. The average selling price will moderate as more homes become available for sale. But right now, as of mid-April, there are no single-family properties available for sale in Truro.
Condominiums sales in Truro were down 64% to four units from 11 last year. The average sales price was up 55% to $498K from $320K. There are only two condominiums available on the market!
Wellfleet is closest to a normal market, with the average price of single-family homes up 3% to $901K. Sales were down 36% to 14 from 22 last year. However, inventory here is low as well and there are only three single-family home available for sale.
AS THE SPRING MARKET BEGINS, ITS ALL ABOUT INVENTORY!
The message this quarter is all about inventory. There is little to none. Hopefully, this will change over the coming spring-summer selling season. However, we will continue to see a slow adjustment over the next several quarters. An inventory increase is predicated on sellers deciding to sell and in turn having someplace to buy. With interest rates hovering close to 5% and prices continuing their upward trajectory, fundamentals have to change in order to return to a more balanced market.
Even in this market, prepared buyers are finding their dream homes and sellers are taking advantage of the historically strong seller’s market. Patience, knowledge, preparedness and flexibility are key – whether buying or selling in these truly unusual times.
As always, my goal is to keep you engaged in this unprecedented outer Cape Real Estate market by providing you with news and market developments as they happens. Watch for interesting stories in your email and on social media at jon.goode.com. I hope to see you on the streets soon. Stay well.
