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When Will Home Values Return To Peak?

Interesting post with a national perspective from HW  Housing Wire’s Trey Garrison.

Home prices won’t return to peak levels until when?

Clear Capital sees 3-5% appreciation rate

 

Home prices are growing slowly but remain in line with inflation, Clear Capital reported in its Home Data Index, but at this pace it will be 2021 before they return to peak prices.

National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth. Home prices have typically gained between 3% and 5% a year.

At the current quarterly rate of national growth, peak prices won’t be reached until the year 2021.

“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as the point of reference, and back to current trends and forecasts,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms, given the current economic climate.”

“For new deals and investors without legacy assets, the new housing environment should be framed in terms of more typical, moderate rates of growth with tempered optimism for the ongoing housing recovery,” Villacorta said.

He added that Clear Capital sees a steady growth pattern, and no bubbles in housing.

“Nationally, we don’t see evidence of a price bubble forming again. Double digit gains over the last year, while similar to rates of growth in the run-up to the bubble, are off a much lower price floor. Phoenix and Las Vegas, however, are showing signs of overheating,” he said.

“These markets skyrocketed off very low price floors as their low-tier and distressed market segments exploded with demand,” Villacorta added. “Each market saw yearly gains top out around 30%, and now are seeing price gains cool substantially. Las Vegas has seen more than a 10 percentage point pull back in just three short months, even though prices remain 20.8% below 2000 levels, after adjusting for inflation. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s yearly gains are down to 19.8%, with prices now 1.9% above 2000 levels after adjusting for inflation. We’ll be watching these markets closely throughout the winter to see how demand holds up.”

Inflation adjusted home prices at the metro level show 46 out of 50 metro markets’ home price levels at pre-2003 levels, with 25 out of 50 metros reporting prices below 2000 levels.

Because the majority of markets remain far off peak values, the peak becomes a less relevant point of reference for new investors and homebuyers. Honolulu is the only metro out of the top 50 to see home prices within peak levels, with inflation adjusted home prices resting at levels last seen in 2005. This anomaly has, in part, been driven by very unique supply and demand, a benefit of being a highly desirable tropical island.

While prices remain far off peak values, current trends continue to moderate across the country.

National yearly gains cooled to 10.8%, a trend that should continue over the next several months. Yearly gains at the metro level are moderating as well, with Sacramento now seeing the highest yearly gain at 25.4%, down from a high of 28% in October. Las Vegas has seen substantial pull back in January with yearly gains of just 21.3%, down from 32.4% in October.

Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes is a granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.

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U.S Real Estate Is Cheaper Than Most!

 

Boy does this post put things in perspective. An interesting world view from Colin Robertson at The Truth About Mortgage! The post is a little long and wonky but gives us a needed perspective – like that the median price in Hong Kong is $4.024M!

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

 January 21, 2014

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

Believe it or not, real estate in the United States is actually really cheap, assuming you compare it to what others are paying in places like Asia, Europe, Canada, and Australia.

A new report released today by Demographia compared housing affordability in 360 markets worldwide and found that the U.S. was far and away more affordable than other countries.

In its 10th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey (which relied upon data from the third quarter of 2013), the company looked at median home prices and household incomes to determine if the dream of homeownership was within reach.

They took the median home price and divided it by the median gross household income to come up with different levels of affordability.

Historically, the median multiple has been similar across the nine nations surveyed, with median home prices typically three times (or less) median household income.

[The Home Price vs. Income Rule of Thumb]

Real Estate in Hong Kong Is Reserved for the Uber Rich

cheap and expensive

But times have changed…

Using that metric, Hong Kong was the least affordable major metropolitan area in the world with a staggering median multiple of 14.9.

In Hong Kong, which is a special administrative region of China, the median household income was $270,000 as of the third quarter.

While that sounds amazingly great, the median home price was $4,024,000. In other words, good luck.

For the record, Hong Kong was the most unaffordable major market (1,000,000+ population) in the world for the fourth year in a row.

Our neighbors to the north have a pretty expensive city of their own, with Vancouver coming in second place in terms of being largely unaffordable.

There, the median home price was only $670,300, but the median household income was just $65,000. That’s a multiple of 10.3, which makes it “severely unaffordable,” according to Demographia’s definition.

The third place you’ll never be able to afford a home is in San Francisco-Oakland, California. Hey, I didn’t say everything in the U.S. was affordable…

The Bay Area had a pretty sizable multiple of 9.2, with the median home price $705,000 and median income $76,300.

The fourth spot was located down under, with Sydney boasting a multiple of 9.0 with a median $722,700 home price and $80,500 median income.

Rounding out the bottom five was San Jose, CA, with a multiple of 8.7. There, the median home price was $805,000 as of the third quarter, higher than SF. And the median income was a hefty $92,400.

Numbers six through 10 included Melbourne, Auckland, San Diego, Los Angeles, and London.  So again, lots of U.S. cities, but those are the outliers.

Unfortunately, it’s a mess that will likely never get better because severely unaffordable markets are also the most attractive to buyers looking to snag short-term profits and “extraordinary returns on investment.”

As a result, home prices in these sought-after regions rise further, thanks to what the report calls “urban containment,” or a lack of land aka supply. Then unsustainable prices in these very cities cause mass damage to the economic system.

The report also pointed out that for young households, the “California” dream requires moving to other states, such as Texas, Indiana or Georgia…

Ireland Is the Most Affordable Nation

affordability ratings

The U.S. also had 84 “affordable” markets, compared to just seven in Canada and four in Ireland. The other regions had ZERO.

Additionally, the U.S. had 100 “moderately affordable” markets, compared to just a handful in other regions of the world.

Overall, the U.S. multiple was 3.4, which is just above the affordable mark. And a lot of pricey regions like California and New York are probably skewing the data.

The only other country to beat us in terms of overall affordability was Ireland of all places. There, the multiple was a low 2.8.

The top 23 major markets were also all located in the United States, with Pittsburgh the most affordable with a 2.3 median multiple.

It was followed by Detroit with a multiple of 2.5, Grand Rapids and Rochester with multiples of 2.6, and Atlanta with a multiple of 2.7.

In all, the U.S. accounted for 40 of the 50 most affordable major markets in the world. So stop complaining! There are plenty of bargains to be had.

[Tips for First-Time Home Buyers]

Who Cares About Worldwide Home Prices?

Why should we care about housing affordability worldwide? Shouldn’t we just focus on local home prices to make real estate decisions?

Sure, it’s good to stay local. But knowing what’s going on in the world is important too.

For example, if home prices are cheap in the U.S. relative to other regions of the world, including places as close as Canada, there’s a good chance those foreigners will be looking to invest in our neighborhoods.

Assuming they do, the supply/demand picture will change, meaning home prices should get a boost. Of course, this could also make it more difficult to land that dream home too.

 

 

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High End, High Tide – The Two Most Expensive Listings In Provincetown

Not surprisingly the most expensive condo and single family property available in Provincetown are on the water.

February 7, 2014

There are 5 condos on the market in Provincetown with list prices over $1M.

The most expensive is a gorgeous waterfront condo  at 67 Commercial Street #4 offered at $1.899M.  This is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo with 969 sf which is quite literally on the water, as you can see from the pictures below.  It is located in one of the most desirable neighborhoods too! That enviable stretch of Commercial Street from Franklin Street west to the Red Inn.

 

67 C

67 C 2

67 C 3

67 Commercial 4

Following is a description direct form Cape and Islands MLS. Quintessential, waterfront, West End free standing 2 bedroom, 2 bath Cape home with spectacular views of the harbor & Long Point. This luxury home has been completely rebuilt with contemporary finishes yet true to its Cape roots. The main living area has wide plank Scandinavian bleached white oak floors, bead board wainscoting & ceiling & a glass door that opens to a private waterfront deck. Kitchen features custom modernist shaker cabinets with a resin pebble backsplash, a Sub Zero refrigerator & Miele appliances. On the second floor you will find the master bedroom with cathedral ceiling, private deck & a spacious en suite bath. The guest bedroom also has a cathedral ceiling and oculus window. Both the baths have river stone tiled showers with Waterworks nickel fixtures & custom glass enclosures. There is off site deeded parking for 2

There are 30 single family homes available with listing prices over $1M – fully 63 % of the 48 single family homes that are available. 

The most expensive single family offering is at 10 Harbour Drive. It is a 5 bedroom, 6 bath home with 4,233 square feet and is being offered at $3.995M. As you can see from the pictures beow and the MLS copy attached it is an exceptional property.

 

10 Harbour 3

10 Harbour 2

10 Harbour

10 Harbour 4
Following is a description direct from Cape and Islands MLS. Experience beachfront living with unparalleled privacy at Provincetown’s newest waterfront community. This newly built spectacular home at Bay Harbour is the largest waterfront home for sale in Provincetown, with over 4000 SF, 5 BR’s and 6 BA’s. Custom chef’s kitchen with WOLF and Subzero appliances. The view pours into the vast living room through the floor to ceiling wrap-around windows. A sumptuous master suite also faces the water and has a private deck,gas FP, WIC,and large bathroom with jacuzzi, steam shower. All bedrooms & the den have ensuite baths. Security, AC, lush grounds, basement, and 2 car garage.
Both are lovely properties and represent the luxury market in Provincetown beautifully.

 

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Goode & Farmer Report – Provincetown, Truro and Wellfleet Year End 2013

Goode & Farmer Report – Provincetown Truro and Wellfleet Year End 2013

Well, we all thought 2012 was a year filled with trepidation and anxiety. That was before we experienced 2013 – the year of the government shutdown, the Boston Marathon bombings, Washington DC gridlock and numerous other international diversions.

While not a record breaker relative to last year, 2013 was in fact a very strong year on the Outer Cape. Nationally, one of the biggest news stories was improving real estate markets as supported by the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showing home prices up 13.61% over last year – the largest gain in almost 8 years.

The strength of our local market is important as it has created equity for homeowners, boosted buyer confidence, and pulled many underwater homeowners into positive equity positions. Year-end results again seem to have surpassed what many in the industry expected. Total sales in Provincetown were down 12% from 229 units in 2012 to 201 units in 2013. Total volume closed was up 4% from $127M to $132M in 2013.

There were 124 condominium sales in 2013 totaling $56M vs. 166 condo sales in 2012 totaling $70M – a decrease of 25%. The average sale price for condominiums in Provincetown was up 8% over 2012 to an average sale price of $453K. The time on market for condos decreased by an average of 33 days this year. The average price per square foot for condos sold was $526.

Single-family home sales in Provincetown remained strong with 48 sales in 2013 totaling $49M vs. 52 sales for $47M in volume in 2012 – a 5% increase in volume. The average sale price for a single-family home was up 12% to an average sale price of $1.024M.

Provincetown leads the way on the Cape for positive real estate news and tends to follow the key downtown Boston neighborhoods in performance stats more than other towns on the Cape. Provincetown continues to attract buyers from cities and towns around the country and international buyers who have visited over the years that now want to have a home here on the Outer Cape.

This market dynamic continues to build the case for spring 2014 being another historically opportune time for those sellers who have been waiting on the sidelines to put their property on the market. This strong demand for Provincetown real estate by more confident buyers just may be the highest in many years.

 

PTOWN chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other towns on the Outer Cape did relatively well too. The number of single-family sales in Truro was down a moderate 9% to 48 from 53 in 2012. The average sales price was down 15% to $594K from $698K last year. The Truro market consists mostly of single-family homes.

In Wellfleet, the average sales price of single-family properties sold increased slightly to $536K from $532K last year. The number of sales decreased by 13% to 70 from 80 in 2012. Wellfleet is predominantly a single-family sales market as well.

 

TRURO WELLFLEET chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A very active real estate market is indeed back – along with improving prices! And nowhere is this more evident than in continued buyer confidence in Provincetown and the Outer Cape.

Buyers do need more choices though as inventory remains low. Positive buyer and seller attitudes coupled with a continuation of relatively low mortgage rates and an improving economy bode well for 2014 being a great year to jump in the market and own a piece of paradise.

Please call or stop in if you are considering selling or buying, or if you are just curious as to what your home is worth. Our business philosophy has always been that the best-informed buyers and sellers are most satisfied with their real estate results. And that’s what we do best!

 

 

 

 

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Favorite New Listing Of The Week

 

This house has always been one of my favorites in the East End. It is in the gallery district next to the house with the huge front yard, and one house east of Ciro and Sals restaurant alley. MLS copy below.

$1.695M, 436 Commercial Street is being offered for $1.696M, 4 bedrooms, and 4 baths, with 3,620 sf and a 9,147 sf  lot. Famous Provincetown artist, Charles Hawthorne made his home here and built the grand Federal addition. This is a home for entertaining with its floor through design and separate suites. A large chefs kitchen dominates the back of the house with formal dinning area. Custom built in closets and cabinets were done in the period style along with wood work by fine craftsmen. There is a very large master bedroom suite with a deck overlooking the garden. Peeks of the water is an added bonus!

 

436 Commercial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a legal two family home giving the new owner condo possibilities.

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Favorite New Listing Of The Week

8 Meadow Lane #2, $529K, is a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom condo with 954 square feet. Located in the West End, a short bike ride or walk to Herring Cove beach, this sunny and immaculate town home built in 2006 offers spacious living on three levels. The main floor is comprised of an open living and dining area and a kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances. The bedrooms have nice separation and privacy from one another, with a bedroom and full bath each on the top floor and the lower level. A deck off the kitchen and a french door from the lower level both lead to a lovely stone patio out back for outside living. The unit has pine floors throughout, air conditioning, a washer/dryer hookup and deeded parking.

529K

21310033_01

21310033_14

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a great condo in the West End near the bike shop in a well run condo association. The two bedrooms are separated by the living floor; there is a very private walk out garden and patio off the lower level bedroom; and there is tons of light from the oversize windows especially on the main floor.

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October Snapshot – Provincetown

October and November are historically the heaviest closing months in Provincetown and this October is no different. 11 single family properties closed and 18 condos closed. Thats 24% of all single family properties sold YTD and 17% of all condos sold YTD.  November looks to be a strong closing month as well.

The average price of a condo sold in October was $491K, and the average list to sale ratio was 97%. The average sale price for a single family property sold was $867K which was 93% of asking price.

Below are three of those condos that sold. 28 Conwell  Street was a very sweet 2 bed/1 bath 400 sf cottage  hidden behind charming white gates; 3 Carnes Lane was a really wonderful 2 bed/2 bath with close to 1500 square feet, and  21 Bradford Street Ext. #1 was a 3 bed/4 bath new construction condo at Herring Cove Village with 2,270 square feet. The average ppsf of condos sold in October was $644.

28 Conwell #3, $375K sold
28 Conwell #3, $375K        sold
3 Carnes Lane #2, $672K, sold
3 Carnes Lane #2, $672K,  sold
21 Bradford St Ext #1, $1.075M
21 Bradford St Ext #1, $1.075M, sold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Below are three single family properties that sold in October.  29 Tremont Street was a 3 bed/2 bath house with a separate private cottage in the West End; 11 Thistlemore was a 3 bed/3 bath contemporary with 2150 sf; 1 Pilgrims  Landing was a 3 bed/3 bath house with 4265 square feet that on a price per square foot basis was the deal of the month at $331 psf. The average ppsf of sold single family  properties in October was $542.

29 Tremont St $995K, sold
29 Tremont St $995K,        sold
1 Pilgrims Landing $1.415M, sold
1 Pilgrims Landing $1.415M, sold
11 Thistlemore Rd, $657K, sold
11 Thistlemore Rd, $657K, sold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Listing activity was robust as well with 15 condos coming on the market with an average price of $512K and 7 single family properties coming on there market with an average price listing price of $1.417M

The three newer listings below illustrate well the diversity of inventory in Provincetown. 95 Race Road #11 is a great value with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths and 1,310 square feet.  19 Tremont Street #1 is one of the nicest 2 bedroom 2 bath condos we have seen in a long time, with incredible outside space, a nice kitchen and a living room with fireplace and vaulted ceilings. It could already be under contract. 6 Cottage Street #1 is a large guest house that is being converted into two condominiums. Unit #1 is a 7 bedroom, 8 bath 3,126 square foot condo on the block between Commercial and Tremont with one of the best locations on town.

95 Race Road #11, $337K
95 Race Road #11, $337K
19 Tremont St #1, $649K
19 Tremont St #1, $649K
6 Cottage St #1.559M
6 Cottage St #1.559M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again showing broad diversity are the 3 newer  single family listings below. 78 West Vine Street is a news 2 bed/2 bath single with close to 1500 square feet. 81 Bayberry is one of the nicest 3 bed/2 bath singles we have seen in some time. 5 Dyer is a landmark 4 bedroom/3 bath house with 4661 square feet on what is arguably one of the best locations on town.

78 W Vine Sr $879K
78 W Vine St $879K
81 Bayberry Ave $885K
81 Bayberry Ave $885K
5 Dyer St $1.499M
5 Dyer St $1.499M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November is shaping up to be as busy as October was. We’ll keep you posted.

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My Favorite New Listing This Week

As the MLS copy says – “A gracious East End property”.  These wonderful single family properties with that extra private cottage are so Provincetown…and very much in demand. Some owners of properties like this renovate the main house while living in the cottage, and eventually have a guest cottage to rent out or to live in while renting the main house.  A true flexible use property.

side

beach access

rear

 

 

 

 

 

 

594 Commercial Street, being offered at $1.2M, is a 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2,451 sf property. This gracious East End property, in the same family for 75 years, is comprised of a large 4 bedroom, 2 bath home, and an adjacent charming artists cottage. The first floor of the main house has a large living room with wide pine floors, wood burning fireplace, and a rank of windows with original period trim. Left of the entry is a master bedroom, leading to a garden room with French doors to a patio. A formal dining room, a country kitchen, and a full bath complete the first floor. Upstairs are three bedrooms of varying size, and a second full bath. The artists cottage has a two-story living room, with palladian window and wide pine floors, a kitchen and a bath. Upstairs is a loft bedroom. There is a spacious lot with shrubs and trees. Across the street is deededed beach assess, with parking(2).

 

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$1,959 Per Square Foot…

 …and worth it!

While this freestanding condo may sound expensive it is one of those rare, new construction properties right on the water…in the West End.  It is a great property offering designed and built with what looks like great attention to quality and detail.

67 Commercial ST

67 Commercial St 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

67 Commercial Street #4, $1.899M, 2/2, 969 sf. (copy direct from MLS) Quintessential, waterfront, West End free standing 2 bedroom, 2 bath Cape home with spectacular views of the harbor & Long Point. This luxury home has been completely rebuilt with contemporary finishes yet true to its Cape roots. The main living area has wide plank Scandinavian bleached white oak floors, bead board wainscoting & ceiling & a glass door that opens to a private waterfront deck. Kitchen features custom modernist shaker cabinets with a resin pebble backsplash, a Sub Zero refrigerator & Miele appliances. On the second floor you will find the master bedroom with cathedral ceiling, private deck & a spacious en suite bath. The guest bedroom also has a cathedral ceiling and oculus window. Both the baths have river stone tiled showers with Waterworks nickel fixtures & custom glass enclosures. There is off site deeded parking for 2.

 

 

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$500K In Provincetown

Here are are few of my favorites that are available in Provincetown for close to $500K.

12 Atwood Ave #212 Atwood Ave #2. $535K, 1/1, 696 sf. A quintessential West End cottage, 12 Atwood Avenue is a charming wood-frame home set back from a private unpaved lane behind a flower-covered white picket fence. With 696 square feet of living space, this one bedroom, two-story cottage is the ultimate Provincetown retreat. The living room is at the front of the cottage and has an oversized wood-burning fireplace. There is a dining room/den next to the kitchen in the rear of the first floor. The entire second floor is a large bedroom and bath with multiple windows with wonderful sight lines to lovely Atwood Avenue. There is a bright private garden.

 

 

 

45 Commercial St #845 Commercial St #8, $499K, 2/2, 555 sf. This condo is in the Jones Locker complex on the water in the West End.  There is a large common deck to enjoy the sun and the bay. This spacious first floor 2 bed room and 2 full bath unit make a great second home and/or rental (approx. income for 2010 $32,000.00) Lots of windows and a peak of the water from the living room. Assigned Deeded off-site parking for one car.

 

 

 

 

 

49 Bradford St #1149 Bradford St 311. $509K, 2/1, 650 sf Ideal West End Location! Just a 2-minute walk to Commercial St in the West End near the Boatslip, this lovely freestanding, 2-level home offers an open floor plan with living/dining/kitchen, screened porch and full bath on the 1st level and master bedroom with slider to deck and 2nd bedroom on the 2nd level. Wood floors, central air, common laundry, additional storage, parking. Condo fee includes heat. Great rental history!

 

 

 

42 Franklin St #B42 Franklin St #B. $489K, 1/1, 626 sf. Built in 2008, this freestanding two level cottage in Provincetown’s west end is lovely inside and out. Open floor plan on the first floor with stainless and granite kitchen, dining and living area with hardwood floors throughout. There is spiral staircase to second level with tiled bath, laundry and bedroom. Large closet with built-in’s, solid wood doors, blackout shades, and balcony off the bedroom. The outdoor space is superb with upper level dining area, outdoor shower, basement for lots of extra storage, and a custom hardscaped patio with stone walls and fire pit. This would be an excellent rental and ideal Provincetown get-a-way!