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US Economy On Best Footing Since 2007

Interesting year in review article from Lou Barnes at INMAN.

US economy is on best footing since 2007 — maybe even 1998

Lou Barnes INMAN Contributor

As with all New Year look-aheads in this space, begin with Peter Drucker: “Nobody can predict the future. Stick with a firm grasp of the present.”

Thus a focus on where we are, and things to watch, not wild swings at the blue sky.

Then note that we focus on real estate, investors and owner-occupants, mortgages and credit. The stock market does affect the economy and interest rates from time to time, but its wanderings defy grasp, firm or otherwise.

Changing my mind is a painful process. An original hypothesis may have grown obsolete, but a new one can double the chance of error. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy is on a better footing and facing lighter headwinds than any time since 2007, and maybe since 1998.

On the turn of the century we labored in the goo of a blown stock bubble, and then splattered credit and housing bubbles all over our faces. The bulk of those messes is past. The most durable and stiff breeze against us, still: Since circa 1990 global competition has capped U.S. wages.

The table set, here follows the watch list:

Incomes

Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.”

Above all else, watch incomes, especially wages in the bottom two-thirds of the workforce. Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.

Inflation

Until incomes grow, a ramping of inflation is impossible. That was your dad’s — or granddad’s — problem.

The Fed

So long as incomes and inflation behave, the Fed can and will continue extreme stimulus. It has to pull back from QE and will, even if the economy slows.

Credit

Next to incomes the most important thing to watch. We cannot accelerate, or even get off Fed life support without it. My very smart friend, Paul Kasriel, has detected an acceleration in bank credit, one strong enough to offset the gradual end of QE. I can’t find it. I will look, early and often.

Regulation

Ow and ouch. Most folks have noticed the difficulty the administration has had with “Obamacare.” These are the same officials who have presided over implementation of Dodd-Frank. The nation has felt the chaos of “Obamacare” for two months. The same people have been rearranging the financial world for four years. It’s amazing that we make any loans at all. At banks the combined effects of new capital requirements and the Volcker Rule are incalculable, but none lead to more credit.

Mortgages

Under the heading “Everybody Gets Lucky,” the White House has at last succeeded in replacing the Fannie-Freddie regulator. The White House’s intentions (trying fitfully for three years): Find somebody who would make life easier on underwater households, specifically by forgiving loan balances, a very bad idea. Now they’ve got their guy, Mel Watt, but the foreclosure tide has receded to scattered puddles. However, he may be just the man to lift the dead hand choking mortgage credit. At the top of the we’ll-see list.

Housing

Will not lead a cyclical recovery. Not. See “incomes,” above. Also far too many households damaged by the Great Recession. Good jobs replaced by poor ones, savings exhausted, credit damaged. Hey, Mel Watt! Want to do something useful for foreclosed families and the nation? Shorten the punitive lock-out intervals for new mortgages. Housing will over time repair itself the old-fashioned way: As rents rise, a new generation will grasp the big benefit of homeownership: The monthly payment stays put, and the mortgage balance falls over time for the persistent and disciplined.

Wild cards

The whole friggin’ outside world! Which is today a lot bigger relative to us than it used to be. One major nation is in genuine recovery: the United Kingdom. Europe is a wreck with no structural political progress at all, financial and social stresses rising. Japan’s risks are internal, but we’d all get wet in the tsunami following implosion. China is an all-time black box. Makes us look well-governed. Perverse benefits: Trouble over there might help here, just as the U.K. looks safer for business than the Continent.

Rates

Oh, that. Mortgages will rise into the fives on the slope of GDP. Or not. :-)

 

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Happy New Year

winter 1

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Housing Prices Cool Down

Another repost from my new favorite writer with a national slant. Brena Swanson of Housing Wire.


Housing prices cool down amid winter freeze

Annual home price growth is not as robust: Clear Capital

Home prices dipped back down to 10.8% year-over-year growth, a meager decrease from last quarter’s 11% annual growth, the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index shows.

The HDI compares the most recent four months to the previous three months, with no fixed-start date to reduce time delay.

 

“As the year comes to a close, make no mistake, home prices across the country are cooling from the red-hot 2013 recovery,” said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “Though some market observers may take this as a sign of a deflating bubble, we see this as a natural, and welcomed evolution on the horizon of the new housing landscape.”

In addition, the quarter growth witnessed a more substantial tumble and fell to 1.8% from the previous quarter’s growth of 3.3%.

The Midwest and Northeast were the only two regions to experience small gains in yearly rates of growth over the previous quarter.

“Since the market trough in the fall of 2011, national prices are up 17%, undoubtedly a strong resurgence in overall prices. Yet, national prices today are back to where they were in 2003, indicating that overall the housing market is at pre-run-up norms,” Villacorta added.

Meanwhile, REO sales made up 21.6% of all national sales over the previous quarter, which is significantly lower than peak rates of 41% in 2011. However, distressed activity, as a portion of sale saturation, is expected to increase over winter as buyers prepare for a more active spring season.

For the first time, Phoenix was kicked out of its number one spot on the top 15 performing cities list, as the city was one of the first markets to experience a sustained recovery alongside its high levels of distressed sale saturation.

Understandably, many current home owners would like to see hot gains continue for some time to come. Market participants, however, are better served by a cooler and more sustainable recovery,” Villacorta said.  “Moderating gains will create a stable market, instilling confidence in a broader base of buyers.”

 

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Boston Is One Of The Healthiest Markets

I like Scott’s take on what constitutes a healthy real estate market.  A more balanced inventory picture certainly is part of it.

Greater Boston one of the “healthiest” markets?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

The Boston area has been anointed one of the “healthiest” real estate markets in the country by real estate website Zillow.

In fact, we weigh in at No. 6, behind only the top California markets and Denver, healthier than 75 percent of the hundreds of markets surveyed by Zillow.

And how did Zillow come to this conclusion? Apparently, we have a relatively low foreclosure rate – just one in every 10,000 was foreclosed on in October – while just 12 percent of homeowners in the Boston area are mired in the negative equity trap.

Overall, home values were up more than 9 percent in October to a median of $343,000.

I beg to differ.

Zillow’s metrics speak volumes about the health of the Greater Boston jobs market, one of the strongest in the country for some years now.

More high-paying jobs compared to other metro markets mean higher prices, less negative equity and fewer foreclosures. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that one.

But while Boston-area sellers are doing better now, this has to be one of the worst markets in the country for home buyers right now.

Listings of homes for sale are skidding along at all time lows and construction of new homes and condos remain mired in what has become a decades-long slump.

Some buyers have become desperate enough to resort to mass mailings in a hunt for potential homes to buy.

At least for buyers, the Boston area is hardly a healthy market. In fact, right now, it has to be one of the sickest housing markets in the country, if measured by buyer frustration.

So what’s your take? Is Greater Boston really one of the country’s healthiest housing markets? And frankly, what does “healthy” truly mean when we are talking real estate?

 

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Sellers No Longer Sitting So Pretty?

It is smart to pay attention to what the national market prognosticators are thinking and then digesting the information relative to our market. We need to pay attention to the NAR too. But when Lawrence Yun of NAR says, “…sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers…” we need to be a bit suspect. This doesn’t sound like a savvy sound bite from the leader of NAR, and it is not the case in our markets.  Whatever happened to the natural dynamic of the supply and demand curve Lawrence?

Substantial price jumps are unlikely

Brena Swanson of Housing Wire

As more inventory hits the housing market and buyers rebel against rising home prices, the real estate market is likely to shift from seller dominance to one that is more counterbalanced by buyer reluctance to acquire homes deemed too expensive.

The tighter inventory conditions of this recent spring and summer are going away as the spring months of next year start to approach, analysts say. Right now, builders are trying to make up for a lack of inventory with new homes,  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, claimed.

According to the latest Home Price Index report fromCoreLogic, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by only 0.2% in October when compared to September.

“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10% of their respective historical price peaks,” Fleming said.

The report comes with both good and bad news. It is good news certainly for the owners and home sellers who are getting the appreciation and housing equity increases, in addition to helping the economy in terms of consumer spending, Yun explained.

However, the report is not as positive for homebuyers. “There are still in my view a lot of potential homebuyers getting blocked out from buying due to rising home prices,” Yun said.

He added, “It is a clear signal that sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers. More housing inventory is coming into the market from new home construction, but it is still a sluggish pace.”

If prices increase, homebuyers may choose to step out of the market if sellers do not adjust their list prices.

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 12.5% annually in October, marking the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices.

In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

“The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates,” Nallathambi added.

Heading into 2014, sellers are still in fairly good shape with prices edging up, but they don’t have that much further to rise, CoreLogic suggests.

 

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Favorite New Listing Of The Week

 

This house has always been one of my favorites in the East End. It is in the gallery district next to the house with the huge front yard, and one house east of Ciro and Sals restaurant alley. MLS copy below.

$1.695M, 436 Commercial Street is being offered for $1.696M, 4 bedrooms, and 4 baths, with 3,620 sf and a 9,147 sf  lot. Famous Provincetown artist, Charles Hawthorne made his home here and built the grand Federal addition. This is a home for entertaining with its floor through design and separate suites. A large chefs kitchen dominates the back of the house with formal dinning area. Custom built in closets and cabinets were done in the period style along with wood work by fine craftsmen. There is a very large master bedroom suite with a deck overlooking the garden. Peeks of the water is an added bonus!

 

436 Commercial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a legal two family home giving the new owner condo possibilities.

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WA – Unique Opportunity – Commercial Condo For Sale

The home of  WA the most valuable commercial property in Provincetown is being offered for sale or lease. Located on a highly trafficked block of Commercial Street in the center of town, WA is a beautiful destination retail store with incredible street appeal with gardens in front and a spectacular Zen garden showcasing numerous water features in the rear. The store has multiple display windows and a flexible interior space housing close to 4,000 square feet of space including 2,400 sf showroom/store and a 1,600 sf storage/office area. This is an opportunity to own a turnkey commercial condo providing an immediate and substantial retail presence in Provincetown for an existing or new business.

WA front

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crossing the threshold one enters an environment diametrically opposite the busy street scene behind. Handicapped accessible, the red painted historic front doors beckon shoppers into an array of intriguing and beautiful merchandise.  The thoughtfully designed retail space includes shops within shops, an orderly arrangement of display spaces down the sides and the center of the space. With partially vaulted ceilings and additional skylights the interior space is attractive and bright. There is a separate office, and  3 storage spaces, and a  1/2 bath. There is central air conditioning, upgraded electric service, gas fired heat.  The space is newly remodeled and in very good condition.

 

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interior1

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The Wa gardens, which extend from the front of the store alongside the walkway into the shade filled Zen-like back gardens, exemplify the WA culture outdoors. Tom Rogers Wa’s creator designed a space that would stimulate all of ones senses.

 

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garden1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buy the commercial condo with or without the business or lease the store. WA has a solid 18 year track record and operation systems are solidly in place. This property is perfect for anyone looking to open a retail operation in a successful existing location,  relocating their existing business to Provincetown, or acquiring a very successful retail company and its real estate.

Call Bill or I if you have any questions about this unique opportunity.

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Commercial Street Redo

WOW!!!!  This is what was going on outside our office yesterday.  Construction is happening in earnest.  Digging up the street, laying down a deep layer of gravel and prepping for the first layer of asphalt. They have been preparing for weeks redoing drainage and installing new granite curbs.

YESTERDAY!

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View from the office

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THIS MORNING!

Had to get to the office this morning by walking the beach and climbing over the porch railings – there was no way I could come in the front on Commercial Street.

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THIS AFTERNOON! 

What a difference.  The worst is over.  The picture on the right shows the crews moving down from Pleasant Street towards Whorf’s Court and the Coast Guard Station.

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A great improvement as many of you have seen how terrific downtown Commercial Street looks (once the pavement is in).

Wishing everyone a great Thanksgiving!

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As Prices Rise, Housing Bears See Red

Scott seems to know what real estate brokers feel like when we get push back for advocating around positive real estate news – and he makes some good points about the nature of our Boston Metro real estate market relative to the nation as a whole.

 As prices rise, housing bears see red

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  Boston.com Boston Real Estate

Maybe reading comprehension just isn’t what it used to be.

Not sure what it is, but every time this blog delves into rising home prices, an increasingly problematic aspect of life in the Boston area, some of our more vocal housing bears on this blog automatically cry foul.

In fact, they see nothing less than a real estate industry conspiracy intent on revving up the housing market!

Not that home prices need any help right now, but the idea is pretty absurd.

A case in point is the reaction on the comment board of this blog to Thursday’s post, “Hot fall market shatters records – and raises concerns.”

Here’s my argument, I’ve made it for years now, and, frankly, I don’t think it’s all that hard to grasp.

Housing prices are on a relentless, decades-long upward march inside I-495, increasingly pricing out ever greater numbers of working and middle class families.

Yes, things cooled a bit during the real estate downturn and Great Recession, but the price declines locally weren’t anything like what they saw out in Las Vegas or in Miami.

Is that because we are just so incredibly precious and special here?

No, increasingly restrictive zoning practices and NIMBY mindsets have put the home builders in a straightjacket, making it all but impossible for developers to truly meet demand for new housing.

Hence anemic levels of building going back more than two decades now and increasingly scarce listings.

Couple that with a local economy that is good at spinning off high-paying jobs in biotech and high-tech, but not much else, and you have a mismatch between rising demand and severely constrained supply.

Does that mean home prices will just keep going up forever? Of course not.

But all real estate is local, with each market driven by its own, peculiar dynamics.

Frankly, I am more worried about the increasingly number of buyers priced out of this market than the idea that we will someday see some sort of Las Vegas-style price implosion.

In fact, a steep plunge in home prices actually would be a good thing here and might truly make housing more affordable here. But you actually have to have lots of new homes getting built for that to happen, as happened in Las Vegas, Phoenix and other Sunbelt markets where the housing crash hit the hardest.

A little overbuilding might do us a world of good here in Greater Boston, but given current trends and attitudes, that’s not going to happen anytime soon.

 

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Homes Selling Faster, Confounding Experts

Recent post from Scott confirming what we are seeing on the ground. While low inventory is beginning to effect the volume of sales, the increase in the velocity of sales is surprising.

Homes selling faster, confounding experts

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis Boston.com Real Estate

So much for all the doom and gloom talk of a looming real estate slowdown.

Economists for the various real estate websites and brokerages out there have been talking up a storm about how the Fed, rising interest rates and the troubles in Washington were adding up to big trouble for home sales and prices.

Yet instead of a slowdown, we are seeing, if anything, acceleration, with homes in Greater Boston selling like hot cakes, according to a new Zillow survey.

Homes within the I-495 beltway that sold in September were on the market about 99 days before finding a buyer.

That’s down from an average of 107 days on market last year, or 7 percent faster, to be exact.

But sellers are making out even better in Boston and the western and northern suburbs of Middlesex County.

In both Boston in this big stretch of suburban towns, homes found buyers on average after just 77 days. The biggest drop came in Middlesex County, where days on market fell by nearly a quarter, from 101 last year, Zillow reports.

Meanwhile, the shortage of homes for sale doesn’t show any signs of improving anytime soon, with construction of new homes and condos still dragging along at anemic levels.

Homes are also selling faster in other markets across the country as well, with a dramatic boost in the speed with which sellers are to land a purchase and sales agreement.

Days on market nationally have fallen to 86, down a whole month from September 2012, when it took an average of 116 days for a house to sell.

Still, while Boston is beating the national average, we have nothing on San Francisco.

In the Bay Area, homes on average stay on the market just 48 days. Now that’s fast!