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3 Reasons The Market Will Thrive In 2014

 

Another great and succinct post by the KCM gang!

3 Reasons the Housing Market Should Thrive in 2014

by 

three

Recently, HousingWire asked David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide, for his opinion on the near-term future of housing. Below are what Mr. Berson believes to be the three things you need to know about housing in 2014. We have included a quote from the article and a small comment from KCM for all three points.

Number 1: 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since before the Great Recession

“Most economists expect an improved job market in 2014, with employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate continuing to decline. That jobless rate drop will reflect more of a pickup in employment than further declines in the labor force participation rate. This will be the key factor improving housing demand this year, even if mortgage rates rise and affordability declines. While the housing market tends to do especially well when the job market improves and mortgage rates decline simultaneously, that combination of events occurs only rarely…People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.”

KCM Comment:

We agree that the job market will continue to improve and that rising interest rates will not be a detriment to the market in 2014. As Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist atFannie Mae, recently revealed:

“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track.”

Number 2: Demographics should start to favor housing activity

“If the economy expands at a faster pace this year, bringing a more rapid rate of job creation, that should translate into more households, raising housing demand. We won’t see all three million missing households return to the housing market at once. (That wouldn’t be a good thing for the housing market anyway, since that would be on top of the 1.2 million households that normally would develop this year; such a surge would swamp the existing housing supply). Beginning in 2014, the pace of household formations should accelerate to an above-trend pace for several years, pushing up housing demand.”

KCM Comment:

The Urban Land Institute recently released a report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014, projecting that 4.48 million new households will be formed over the next three years. Millennials will make up a large portion of these new households. With the economy improving, we believe they will finally be moving out of their parents’ homes and, after they compare renting versus buying, many will choose homeownership.

Number 3: Mortgage availability shouldn’t worsen and may improve

“The rise in mortgage rates already has reduced mortgage origination volumes as refinance activity declines. If mortgage rates rise further this year, as expected, then refinance activity will fall still more. In response, mortgage lenders probably will ease lending standards to the extent possible under the QM rules to boost lending activity by increasing purchase originations. As a result, the increase in new households expected to be created this year, spurred by a stronger job market, should find that qualifying for a mortgage loan will be somewhat easier in 2014 than in prior years.”

KCM Comment:

We also believe that, as the refinancing market begins to dry up, mortgage entities will be more aggressive in the purchase money market (mortgages necessary to purchase a home). There even seems to be recent evidence that lending standards are actually loosening.

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When Will Home Values Return To Peak?

Interesting post with a national perspective from HW  Housing Wire’s Trey Garrison.

Home prices won’t return to peak levels until when?

Clear Capital sees 3-5% appreciation rate

 

Home prices are growing slowly but remain in line with inflation, Clear Capital reported in its Home Data Index, but at this pace it will be 2021 before they return to peak prices.

National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth. Home prices have typically gained between 3% and 5% a year.

At the current quarterly rate of national growth, peak prices won’t be reached until the year 2021.

“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as the point of reference, and back to current trends and forecasts,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms, given the current economic climate.”

“For new deals and investors without legacy assets, the new housing environment should be framed in terms of more typical, moderate rates of growth with tempered optimism for the ongoing housing recovery,” Villacorta said.

He added that Clear Capital sees a steady growth pattern, and no bubbles in housing.

“Nationally, we don’t see evidence of a price bubble forming again. Double digit gains over the last year, while similar to rates of growth in the run-up to the bubble, are off a much lower price floor. Phoenix and Las Vegas, however, are showing signs of overheating,” he said.

“These markets skyrocketed off very low price floors as their low-tier and distressed market segments exploded with demand,” Villacorta added. “Each market saw yearly gains top out around 30%, and now are seeing price gains cool substantially. Las Vegas has seen more than a 10 percentage point pull back in just three short months, even though prices remain 20.8% below 2000 levels, after adjusting for inflation. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s yearly gains are down to 19.8%, with prices now 1.9% above 2000 levels after adjusting for inflation. We’ll be watching these markets closely throughout the winter to see how demand holds up.”

Inflation adjusted home prices at the metro level show 46 out of 50 metro markets’ home price levels at pre-2003 levels, with 25 out of 50 metros reporting prices below 2000 levels.

Because the majority of markets remain far off peak values, the peak becomes a less relevant point of reference for new investors and homebuyers. Honolulu is the only metro out of the top 50 to see home prices within peak levels, with inflation adjusted home prices resting at levels last seen in 2005. This anomaly has, in part, been driven by very unique supply and demand, a benefit of being a highly desirable tropical island.

While prices remain far off peak values, current trends continue to moderate across the country.

National yearly gains cooled to 10.8%, a trend that should continue over the next several months. Yearly gains at the metro level are moderating as well, with Sacramento now seeing the highest yearly gain at 25.4%, down from a high of 28% in October. Las Vegas has seen substantial pull back in January with yearly gains of just 21.3%, down from 32.4% in October.

Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes is a granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.

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38 Essential Boston Eaterys

Blizzard here in Provincetown this morning.  It is crazy outside. A good day for thinking about food. I know this is a real estate website….but food matters!

WOW!  Rachel Leah Blumenthal is right that her post below is a must have for any foodie in Boston.  What a resource to keep handy. She writes for Eater.com/Boston. She is good!!!

I know this is a real estate website….but food matters!

 

The 38 Essential Boston Restaurants

January  2014, by Rachel Leah Blumenthal

22005_10_eater38logo.pngPresenting Boston’s updated Eater 38, your answer to any question that begins, “Can you recommend a restaurant?” This highly elite group covers the entire city, spans myriad cuisines, and collectively satisfies all of your restaurant needs. Every few months, we’ll be adding pertinent restaurants that were omitted, have newly become eligible (restaurants must be open at least six months), or have stepped up their game.

Your favorite restaurant isn’t on the list? There are certainly more than 38 fantastic restaurants around town — and probably about 38 million different opinions — so don’t hesitate to rip this list to shreds and say what you’d do differently in the comment section below. Please note that the numbers are not rankings; the list is geographically organized from north to south (roughly).

The 38 Essential Boston Restaurants, January 2014

HIGHLAND KITCHEN
150 HIGHLAND AVE., SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 625-1131, WEBSITE
A regular haunt of practically everyone who has ever lived in Somerville’s Spring Hill or Union Square in the last few years, Highland Kitchen specializes in comfort food, a lively ambiance, and strong cocktails. Try the spicy goat stew and the house-made ginger beer (also spicy), or swing by on a Monday for fried chicken and tiki drink specials.
150 HIGHLAND AVE., SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 625-1131
Now open for just over a year, Giulia has racked up a number of highly positive reviews for its house-made pasta and warm staff. The pappardelle with wild boar is a popular choice.[Photo: Rachel Leah Blumenthal]
1682 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138
(617) 441-2800
Hidden off an alley in Somerville’s Union Square, Journeyman recently did away with its menu, which used to simply offer a few different sizes of tastings with dishes that changed weekly. Now, there’s no menu at all — pay $75; eat what is served. The focus is on delicate, artful preparations of local ingredients.
9 SANBORN CT, SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 718-2333
One of the hottest openings of 2013, Bronwyn is the second project from Tim and Bronywn Wiechmann of the acclaimed T.W. Food. The Union Square restaurant features German and Central European food, and the biergarten is always packed in pleasant weather.[Photo: Chris Coe]
255 WASHINGTON STREET, SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 776-9900
This romantic “Spanish Caribbean tapas” spot comes from a couple of architects, so the space is as beautiful as the menu items. You’ll feel like you’re dining in someone’s living room, which makes sense, since owners Alberto Cabré and Angelina Jockovich got their culinary start by throwing elaborate “underground” dinner parties.
253 WASHINGTON ST, SOMMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 764-2180
One of the most beautiful restaurants in town, Dali is always the right choice for a romantic night out. It’s lively, the tapas are delicious and meant to be shared, and it’ll make you think you’re in Barcelona. It’s such a landmark that many Somerville residents call the Washington/Beacon/Kirkland intersection the “Dali Corner.”
415 WASHINGTON ST, SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 661-3254
This 69-seat restaurant opened in 2010 and has helped pave the way for a new era of Somerville dining. The critics have praised Bergamot’s synthesis of relaxed attitude and serious skill. The team behind it reportedly has a new restaurant, Angel’s Share, slated for Inman Square.
118 BEACON ST., SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 576-7700
Yes, there’s amazing Italian food outside of the North End. This Eastie gem has recently received a huge amount of attention thanks to a Food Network appearance, but locals have always known that it’s the place to go for huge ravioli and excellent homemade pasta.
257 SARATOGA ST, BOSTON, MA 02128
(617) 567-7412
This cozy Somerville watering hole pairs hot dogs with classy cocktails in a retro lounge. The Monday “industry brunch” leaves diners happily full of chicken and waffles, homemade pop tarts, and Kool Aid du jour.
3 BEACON ST, SOMERVILLE, MA 02143
(617) 576-0006
James Beard winner Jody Adams’ Harvard Square flagship has been drawing crowds since opening nearly a decade ago, focusing on regional Italian cuisine and locally sourced ingredients. More recently, Adams opened up a new restaurant, TRADE, near South Station.
1 BENNETT ST, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138
(617) 661-5050
An intimate, Chinese-inspired small plates restaurant presided over by chef Phillip Tang, ExNE was named one of the “The Top 6 Places to Taste the New Asian Fusion” by Bon Appetit. In-house noodles, dumplings, and bao blow away the competition, of which there is little.
1128 CAMBRIDGE ST, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 876-0286
Santarpio’s in Eastie is the place to go to shut up your obnoxious New York friends when they claim there’s no good pizza in Boston. This classic joint is unassuming and rough around the edges, just the way it should be. Pizzeria Regina may win the classic duel for sheer expansion, but Santarpio’s pizza is unmatched.
111 CHELSEA ST, BOSTON, MA 02128
(617) 567-9871
One of the city’s few restaurants with a vegetarian tasting menu, let alone one that diners regularly rave about. Oleana serves omnivores as well, with chef Ana Sortun imparting her well-known Mediterranean accents in dishes like octopus with crispy Brussels sprouts. Sortun and Oleana chef de cuisine Cassie Piuma are days away from opening a new restaurant, Sarma, in Somerville.
134 HAMPSHIRE ST., CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 661-0505
Bondir has just blown everyone away, most notably by being named one of the ten Best New Restaurants in America in 2011 by Bon Appetit in addition to racking up about as many local accolades as you can get. It took what a lot of restaurants were already doing – the classed-up, local, rootsy thing – and managed to tighten the screws, add some flourishes, and still make it distinct and feel fresh. A Concord outpost opened up in fall 2013.
279A BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 661-0009
There are other restaurants that do local ingredients, French technique, or Southern recipes, but not under one roof. It’s amazing that shrimp and grits can taste this good so far north.
233 CARDINAL MEDEIROS AVE, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02141
(617) 499-0090
Since opening in late spring 2012, West Bridge quickly became the darling of Kendall Square, among many existing darlings. The French-inspired menu comes from Aquitaine Bistro alumni chef Matthew Gaudet. Don’t miss the egg in a jar.
1 KENDALL SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 899-6088
A local legend of the prodigal son and former chef de cuisine at Momofuku Ssam Bar, who came home to run dad’s diner and put lots of octopus on the menu. The junior Maslow now owns his own spot as well — Ribelle in Brookline.
93 SCHOOL ST, WATERTOWN, MA 02472
(617) 923-4330
Western Mediterranean accents appear on chef-owner Steve Johnson’s menu, which is enhanced by a rooftop herb garden (in season). Sit at the bar for the full cocktail experience.
502 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 576-1900
Craigie is known for making simple dishes like roasted chicken extraordinary by using advanced techniques and technology — and for serving dishes that are just plain extraordinary, like a shareable confit and roasted milk-fed pig’s head with spicy pumpkin sambal and boudin noir-hoisin sauce. Owner Tony Maws recently opened up a new, more casual restaurant, The Kirkland Tap & Trotter, on the edge of Somerville and Cambridge.
853 MAIN ST, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139
(617) 497-5511
The North End is generally known for Italian, which makes it all the more impressive that a seafood restaurant has made its name as one of the neighborhood’s best places to eat. The lines are long, but the lobster rolls are beloved. Choose cold with mayo or hot with butter.
63 SALEM ST., BOSTON, MA 02113
(617) 742-3474
This instant industry-approved classic has helped revitalize Downtown Crossing dining with its small, meaty menu, adult milkshakes, late-night dining and blunt rules for patrons. Opening executive chef Sam Monsour put a creative twist on junk food until leaving in the end of 2013, and his sous chef Chris Bauers has stepped up to take his place, continuing the tradition. Diners who want something more upscale can sidle into Bogie’s Place, the tiny steakhouse hidden inside.
21 TEMPLE PLACE, BOSTON, MA 02111
(617) 338-5333
Lovely views of the common and proximity to a variety of theaters give Troquet an advantage location-wise, but the food is outstanding as well, and the wine list is deservedly award-winning. Plus, it’s probably the only place you’ll see servers scooping butter out of a giant basket that is completely full of butter.
140 BOYLSTON ST, BOSTON, MA 02116
(617) 695-9463
A favorite of food nerds ’round the city, Taiwan Cafe is an easy answer when a Chinatown first-timer is wondering where to go. The soup dumplings rival other options in the neighborhood, and the Szechuan fish is another must-try.[Photo: Official Site]
34 OXFORD ST, BOSTON, MA 02111
(617) 426-8181
Sushi lovers who have not yet embarked on O Ya’s grand omakase have not yet lived. And it’s not just the seafood — the wagyu beef is so tender that it may bring a tear to your eye. Hidden in the Leather District, this tiny spot has accumulated numerous awards, including a James Beard for chef Tim Cushman.
9 EAST ST, BOSTON, MA 02111
(617) 654-9900
Superbly executed Shanghai-style dishes like lion’s head meatball and xiao long bao manage to be just as flavorful as their Sichuan counterparts, minus the heat. Considered by many to be the city’s best Chinese — and it’s nowhere near Chinatown.
204 HARVARD AVE, ALLSTON, MA 02134
(617) 566-7344
Island Creek Oyster bar looks more slick than the restaurant you would expect an oyster farm to operate, but it’s no less legit. The seafood-centric menu straddles straightforward and fun. The team is opening up a new restaurant, Row 34, in Fort Point later this fall.
500 COMMONWEALTH AVE, BOSTON, MA 02215
(617) 532-5300
Since opening in January 2013, Asta has quietly built up a devoted following for its tasting menu-only format. The mysterious restaurant has a minimal website, little to no marketing or social media presence, and an amazing Zeus painted on the wall, salvaged from the restaurant formerly in the space.
47 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, BOSTON, MA 02115
(617) 585-9575
Going strong since 1978, with a few location moves over the years, L’Espalier is revered for chef/owner Frank McClelland’s hybrid of French and New England cuisine, which makes extensive use of local, seasonal ingredients. If money’s no object, let him take you on his Tasting Journey, “a unique menu inspired by the seasons of New England crafted for your table.” Or stop by for a Cheese Tuesday to eat cheese and sing along to classic hits like “Don’t Stop Blue Cheesing.”
774 BOYLSTON ST, BOSTON, MA 02199
(617) 262-3023
Perhaps the only Boston restaurant to serve elaborately prepared sunflower buds, Erbaluce is no stranger to the title of the city’s “best Italian restaurant.” Chef/owner Charles Draghi changes the menu nightly.
69 CHURCH ST, BOSTON, MA 02116
(617) 426-6969
Open just over a year, Shōjō has managed to create a wildly successful Asian fusion menu — in Chinatown, no less — in a time when “Asian fusion” is not always enthusiastically received. Diners will find dishes like a “pot o’kimchi” alongside a charcuterie board. And then there’s the duck fat fries with Sriracha aioli.
9 TYLER ST, BOSTON, MA 02111
The most approachable of Barbara Lynch’s local empire, where tagliatelle with bolognese rubs elbows with dishes like strozzapreti with braised rabbit. Lunch, dinner, and weekend brunch are served on a diner-like counter. Doubles as a bakery with early-morning hours, offering delicacies like cronuts and apple cider donuts as weekly specials, depending on the season.
348 CONGRESS ST, BOSTON, MA 02210
(617) 737-1234
One of the priciest seats in town, Menton is Barbara Lynch’s crown jewel, boasting Relais & Châteaux status. After Kristen Kish, chef de cuisine at Lynch’s demo kitchen Stir, won Top Chef, she was swiftly promoted to chef de cuisine at Menton.[Photo: Official Site]
354 CONGRESS ST, BOSTON, MA 02210
(617) 737-0099
A veteran of the dining scene for over 20 years, this restaurant stakes its reputation partly on its infamous roasted chicken. Over the years it has changed exactly as much as it should. President Obama has been known to eat here.
553 TREMONT ST, BOSTON, MA 02116
(617) 423-2700
What’s not to like? Some dishes are Chinese, some Thai, some Vietnamese, and some a fantasy amalgam of various nationalities, but no one would dare call Myers+Chang Pan-Asian. One of the city’s most vibrant restaurants, it has an atmosphere that seems buoyed by a sense of chef Joanne Chang’s other successes with Flour Bakery. The badass dragon on the window doesn’t hurt either.
1145 WASHINGTON ST., BOSTON, MA 02118
(617) 542-5200
Scotch egg, suckling pig tacos, and at least three kinds of poutine. The dark humor in the name and decor continues through the menu, where heirloom vegetables appear alongside oysters “Rockafella.”
1395 WASHINGTON ST, BOSTON, MA 02118
(617) 425-0200
TORO
Chef-owner Ken Oringer and chef Jamie Bissonnette team up for one of the city’s hardest-to-get-into restaurants. Toro serves modern and traditional tapas ranging from simple grilled corn to elaborate dishes pairing seafood and charcuterie with rich, bold flavors that keep the crowds lining up. And now they’re lining up in New York City as well — Oringer and Bissonnette recently opened a new location in Chelsea.
1704 WASHINGTON ST, BOSTON, MA 02118
(617) 536-4300
Helmed by David Punch of Ten Tables, Sycamore has been turning heads in Newton since opening a year ago thanks to its refined contemporary American cuisine and solid beverage program.[Photo: Facebook]
755 BEACON ST, NEWTON, MA 02459
(617) 244-4445
The flagship of an expanding mini-empire now in Cambridge, P-town, and the burger biz, this tiny space is where it all began. The $48 tasting menu rivals ones that cost at least twice as much.
597 CENTRE ST, JAMAICA PLAIN, MA 02130
(617) 524-8810

 

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How Cool Is This Chart?

How far will a million bucks go in NYC?

$1 million will likely net more space in NYC versus San Francisco and Boston.


By Business Insider

According to Knight Frank data cited by CNBC’s Robert Frank, a million dollars goes a lot further in Cape Town than it would in Monaco.

But what about in the U.S.?

We looked at housing list price data from real estate brokerage Movoto.com and real estate marketplace Zillow.com. The diagram below shows the number of square feet of housing that you can buy for $1,000,000, based on the median price per square foot in each city:

city-real-estate-chart-corrected

With a median list price of $666 per square foot, San Francisco’s real estate boom limits a million dollars to buying about 1,500 square feet. On the other end of the spectrum, the median list price in beleaguered Detroit is just $12 per square foot — 55 times cheaper than in San Francisco.

Considering all five boroughs, the median price per square foot in New York City is $424. Looking just at Manhattan however, that price jumps to an astronomical $1,538 per square foot, leading to $1,000,000 buying just 650 square feet.

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Buyers Feeling Blue

Another interesting post by Scott about buyer attitudes in Boston

Home buyers feeling blue

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Can’t look at one more fixer-upper? Tired of bidding wars on every half-decent home that comes on the market? Wondering when, if ever, prices will go down, or at least level off, in Greater Boston?

Wondering if we have gone from global warming to a new ice age?

If so, you’ve got a bad case of the home-buyer blues, with Boston area house hunters particularly vulnerable to this new malady, a new report finds.

Confidence in the housing market among Boston area buyers is falling, according to a newreport out by Zillow and is now somewhat below the national average.

Boston’s score on Zillow’s “housing confidence index” weighs in at 63.4, below the national average of 63.7.

Meanwhile, only 8 percent of Boston area renters want to buy in the next year, compared to 10 percent nationally.

By contrast, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Miami have the highest percentage of renters looking to buy.

Rising prices and a growing dearth of homes to actually look at are two likely suspects
here.

But Zillow is not the only one picking up on some increasingly negative vibes coming from home buyers as the spring market gets ready to kick off.

Only 25 percent of house hunters across the country think it is a good time to buy now, compared to 40 percent last year, Redfin reports.

OK, to borrow a popular line from Realtor trade groups, maybe it’s all the nasty weather out there that is getting buyers down.

However, while the wintry view outside the window doesn’t help, there is clearly much more to this story than that.

 

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The Sky Is Not Falling

A perfect post by the incredible KCM crew. They do a great job highlighting assumptions around what is causing the national trend towards decreasing sales numbers, and then debunking them with Reality. We are seeing some of these dynamics in our local markets. This is a very good post with a broad national slant on the issues…for consumers and agent/brokers too.

Be Quiet Chicken Little. The Sky is NOT Falling

by 

There has been much speculation about what is causing the falling sales numbers in the most recent Existing Home Sales Reports (EHS) from theNational Association of Realtors (NAR). Some have claimed that rising interest rates have scared buyers out of the market. Others have claimed that consumers are just losing confidence in the housing recovery fearing a new bubble may be forming. We want to look at the validity of these two assumptions.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

ASSUMPTION: Rising interest rates have forced buyers back onto the fence. Evidence offered up by those in this camp comes directly from the EHS Report from NAR. Three of the last four reports revealed that sales were below sales from the same month the previous year.

THE REALITY: Though it is true year-over-year sales have fallen nationally, a closer look at the report reveals major regional differences. Sales in the West Region are down 10.7% versus the same month last year. Sales in the Midwest Region are also down but by less than 1%. The Northeast Region is up 3.2% and the Southern Region is up 4.6%.

If the issue is interest rates, why is one region virtually unchanged and two of the remaining three regions up in sales? We don’t believe rates are the challenge.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE in REAL ESTATE is ERODING

ASSUMPTION: The pace of the recent price increases has caused many to fear the emergence of a new housing bubble. Similar to the first assumption, evidence offered up by those in this camp comes directly from the less than enthusiastic EHS Reports from NAR.

THE REALITY: As we mentioned before, sales in the Midwest Region are down but by less than 1%. The Northeast and the Southern Region have both shown increased sales as compared to the year before. Are only the consumers in the Western Region afraid of a possible bubble forming?

The fear of a new housing bubble is vastly overstated. Forty states have not yet returned to home values they experienced seven to nine years ago. Nineteen of those forty states still have home prices 15% or more below peak prices. We believe home values will continue to increase but just at a slower rate of appreciation.

It is not just us that believe this is the case. The over 100 housing experts recently surveyed by Pulsenomics revealed that they believe prices will continue to appreciate at historical annual numbers (3-4%) for at least the next five years.

THEN WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE?

If the lack of sales is not the result of increasing interest rates or decreasing consumer confidence, what actually is happening? We believe it can be broken down to three words: LACK of INVENTORY.

Inventories of foreclosure and short sale properties are falling like a rock in the vast majority of regions across the nation. These two categories of homes have driven the market for the last few years. As foreclosures and short sales sell, they are not being replaced because the economy has gotten better and more families have regained control of their finances. All fifty states have seen a decrease in the number of homeowners who are seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments with thirty nine states seeing the number shrink by over 20%.

This inventory has not yet begun to be replaced by the non-distressed properties in the country. Just this month, NAR revealed that the months’ inventory of homes for sale has dropped to only a 4 month supply. A normal market has between 5-6 months’ supply.

This is the main reason home sales are declining in certain regions – there are just not enough houses for sale.

BOTTOM LINE

With the economy improving and with homeowners gaining back some equity they lost when prices fell, we believe there will be many homes coming unto the market this spring. A recent survey revealed that 71% of homeowners are at least considering selling their home in 2014.

If you are thinking of selling, beating this increased competition to the market before spring might make sense – and might enable you to get the best price possible for your home.

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Existing Home Sales Take A Dive…

I haven’t reposted anything by Tara Steele of AG recently but this post tells a smart national perspective.

HOUSING NEWS

Existing home sales take a dip

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales dipped 5.1 percent in January from December’s revised sales numbers. This places sales at their lowest level since July 2012, which they blame squarely on the perpetual inventory shortages, which also serves to continue lifting prices, which is good news to some (homeowners) and bad news to others (buyers).

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, also stated that unusual weather is playing a role. “Disruptive and prolonged winter weather patterns across the country are impacting a wide range of economic activity, and housing is no exception. Some housing activity will be delayed until spring.”

“At the same time,” Dr. Yun added, “we can’t ignore the ongoing headwinds of tight credit, limited inventory, higher prices and higher mortgage interest rates. These issues will hinder home sales activity until the positive factors of job growth and new supply from higher housing starts begin to make an impact.”

Median existing home price

NAR reports that the median existing home price for all housing types was $188,900 in January, up a whopping 10.7 percent from January 2013.

Distressed homes accounted for 15 percent of sales (11 percent were foreclosures, and only 4 percent were short sales), down from 24 percent in January 2013. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value and short sales were discounted 13 percent.

Housing inventory levels

Although NAR cites ongoing inventory problems, housing inventory did rise 2.2 percent for the month, and rose 7.3 percent compared to January 2013. Inventory now represents a 4.9-month supply at the current sales pace.

The median time on market was 67 days in January, down from 72 days in December and 71 days on market in December 2013. Non-distressed homes sold in 66 days, foreclosures typically sold in 58 days, and short sales spent 150 days on the market. NAR reports that nearly one in three homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.

Who’s buying right now?

The number of first time buyers are slowly dwindling, hitting 26 percent of all sales in January, down from 27 percent in December and 30 percent in January 2013.

The trade group said in a statement, “This is the lowest market share for first-time buyers since NAR began monthly measurement in October 2008; normally, they should be closer to 40 percent.”

Fully 33 percent of sales were paid for with cash, up from 32 percent in December and 28 percent in January 2013. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in January, compared with 21 percent in December and 19 percent in January 2013. Seven out of 10 investors paid cash in January.

Regional performance varies

Existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 3.1 percent to an annual rate of 620,000 in January, and are also 3.1 percent below January 2013. The median price in the Northeast was $241,100, up 6.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 7.1 percent in January to a pace of 1.04 million, and are 8.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,300, which is 7.6 percent higher than January 2013.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 3.5 percent to an annual level of 1.95 million in January, but are 1.6 percent higher than January 2013. The median price in the South was $161,500, up 9.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dropped 7.3 percent to a pace of 1.01 million in January, and are 13.7 percent below a year ago. Sales in the West are attenuated by tight inventory in many areas, pushing the median price to $273,500, up 14.6 percent from January 2013.

 

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Condo Prices Shatter Record

 

Great post from Scott.

Mass condo prices shatter record

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis
Yes, condo prices are getting nutty again.

The median price of a condo in Massachusetts crossed the $300,000 threshold in January.

That’s the highest condo price ever for a January since The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, began tracking condo prices back in 1987.

It also represents a 24 percent increase from January 2013, when the median price for a condo in the Bay State was at a relatively more affordable $242,000.

By comparison, the median U.S. home price weighs in at $188,900. And that’s after a 10 percent increase in January.

Condo sales were also up by a pretty sizable 16 percent, with 1,144 units changing hands the first month of the year, The Warren Group reports.

What’s even more amazing, condo prices are not all that far behind single-family home prices in Massachusetts, with the median home price in January rising 16 percent, to $315,000.

Condos have long been a starter home alternative in pricey Greater Boston, but it’s not clear how much longer that’s going to last given current trends.

Certainly condo prices are out of sight now in Cambridge, Boston and the inner suburbs.

Of course, the price increases might be good news for sellers, but it’s hardly anything for buyers to cheer about. Even if you are trying to sell a house in order to move up into something grander, you are still going to be scrambling to keep up when prices are rising at double digits.

So what’s driving this price escalation? Some of it is due to pent-up demand, but low inventory – basically not enough listings for all the buyers out there – is the bigger problem right now.

The inventory of single-family homes dropped more than 20 percent in January compared to January 2013, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reports this morning. (There were 15,246 listings this past January, compared to 19,142 the year before.)

Condo inventory was down even more, by 27 percent, to 4,232, MAR reports.

Anyway, it should be an interesting spring market. At a time when sales and prices in many other parts of the country are starting to moderate, the market in Massachusetts kicking into high gear.

 

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U.S Real Estate Is Cheaper Than Most!

 

Boy does this post put things in perspective. An interesting world view from Colin Robertson at The Truth About Mortgage! The post is a little long and wonky but gives us a needed perspective – like that the median price in Hong Kong is $4.024M!

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

 January 21, 2014

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

Believe it or not, real estate in the United States is actually really cheap, assuming you compare it to what others are paying in places like Asia, Europe, Canada, and Australia.

A new report released today by Demographia compared housing affordability in 360 markets worldwide and found that the U.S. was far and away more affordable than other countries.

In its 10th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey (which relied upon data from the third quarter of 2013), the company looked at median home prices and household incomes to determine if the dream of homeownership was within reach.

They took the median home price and divided it by the median gross household income to come up with different levels of affordability.

Historically, the median multiple has been similar across the nine nations surveyed, with median home prices typically three times (or less) median household income.

[The Home Price vs. Income Rule of Thumb]

Real Estate in Hong Kong Is Reserved for the Uber Rich

cheap and expensive

But times have changed…

Using that metric, Hong Kong was the least affordable major metropolitan area in the world with a staggering median multiple of 14.9.

In Hong Kong, which is a special administrative region of China, the median household income was $270,000 as of the third quarter.

While that sounds amazingly great, the median home price was $4,024,000. In other words, good luck.

For the record, Hong Kong was the most unaffordable major market (1,000,000+ population) in the world for the fourth year in a row.

Our neighbors to the north have a pretty expensive city of their own, with Vancouver coming in second place in terms of being largely unaffordable.

There, the median home price was only $670,300, but the median household income was just $65,000. That’s a multiple of 10.3, which makes it “severely unaffordable,” according to Demographia’s definition.

The third place you’ll never be able to afford a home is in San Francisco-Oakland, California. Hey, I didn’t say everything in the U.S. was affordable…

The Bay Area had a pretty sizable multiple of 9.2, with the median home price $705,000 and median income $76,300.

The fourth spot was located down under, with Sydney boasting a multiple of 9.0 with a median $722,700 home price and $80,500 median income.

Rounding out the bottom five was San Jose, CA, with a multiple of 8.7. There, the median home price was $805,000 as of the third quarter, higher than SF. And the median income was a hefty $92,400.

Numbers six through 10 included Melbourne, Auckland, San Diego, Los Angeles, and London.  So again, lots of U.S. cities, but those are the outliers.

Unfortunately, it’s a mess that will likely never get better because severely unaffordable markets are also the most attractive to buyers looking to snag short-term profits and “extraordinary returns on investment.”

As a result, home prices in these sought-after regions rise further, thanks to what the report calls “urban containment,” or a lack of land aka supply. Then unsustainable prices in these very cities cause mass damage to the economic system.

The report also pointed out that for young households, the “California” dream requires moving to other states, such as Texas, Indiana or Georgia…

Ireland Is the Most Affordable Nation

affordability ratings

The U.S. also had 84 “affordable” markets, compared to just seven in Canada and four in Ireland. The other regions had ZERO.

Additionally, the U.S. had 100 “moderately affordable” markets, compared to just a handful in other regions of the world.

Overall, the U.S. multiple was 3.4, which is just above the affordable mark. And a lot of pricey regions like California and New York are probably skewing the data.

The only other country to beat us in terms of overall affordability was Ireland of all places. There, the multiple was a low 2.8.

The top 23 major markets were also all located in the United States, with Pittsburgh the most affordable with a 2.3 median multiple.

It was followed by Detroit with a multiple of 2.5, Grand Rapids and Rochester with multiples of 2.6, and Atlanta with a multiple of 2.7.

In all, the U.S. accounted for 40 of the 50 most affordable major markets in the world. So stop complaining! There are plenty of bargains to be had.

[Tips for First-Time Home Buyers]

Who Cares About Worldwide Home Prices?

Why should we care about housing affordability worldwide? Shouldn’t we just focus on local home prices to make real estate decisions?

Sure, it’s good to stay local. But knowing what’s going on in the world is important too.

For example, if home prices are cheap in the U.S. relative to other regions of the world, including places as close as Canada, there’s a good chance those foreigners will be looking to invest in our neighborhoods.

Assuming they do, the supply/demand picture will change, meaning home prices should get a boost. Of course, this could also make it more difficult to land that dream home too.

 

 

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Condos Soar

691 Mass Ave, #208, asking $570K. 1B/1B, 909 sf

Its always interesting to hear mixed reactions to condos, as our “local” markets, downtown Boston and Provincetown are very condo centric. A good statewide perspective though.

Condos soar as home sales stumble

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis
Are buyers turning to condos as they find themselves on the losing end of soaring single-family home prices?

It happened during the bubble years and in previous booms as well. And it looks like it may be happening again given the latest Massachusetts sales stats out this morning

Bay State condo sales jumped more than 15 percent in December compared to the year before, even as home sales slid –  by just under a percent –  for the fewest sales since April,The Warren Group reports.

Yet even as home sales faltered, home prices rose yet again in December amid a dearth of listings for buyers to look at, with the median price hitting $320,000, a 6.3 percent jump over 2012 and an increase over this November as well, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors finds.

And despite the stagnant sales numbers, demand still appears to be relatively strong, with the drop in sales driven by the sparse choices in the market as much as anything else.

Even as home sales stagnated in December, average days on market dropped to 99 days, down from 130 in December 2012, according to MAR.

By contrast, condo prices look a little more reasonable, though that window appears to be closing as well.

The median condo price rose 8 percent in December, to more than $305,000, MAR reports. The median condo price for all of 2013 – $300,000 – was the highest since 2004.

While generally less expensive, condos have the perception as being a riskier bet than singe-family homes. There’s more price volatility with condos the poster child, at least in New England, of the devastating early-1990s real estate collapse.

Many of those who snapped up condos during the greed-is-good 80s were stuck with them for years, unable to sell, period, let alone settling for a loss.

Developers during those heady boom times got the very dangerous idea they could turn any old building anywhere into overpriced condos and stuff their pockets with easy profits.

Bad bets include the downtown Haverhill condo next to a car dealership that one of my former newspaper colleagues was stuck with from his bachelor days.

He wound up renting it after he got married and bought a house – he may very well still be sitting on it, though I suspect he finally found a way to unload during the bubble years, circa 2003-2006.

Ready to go condo? Homes too expensive for you now?