Tag: Boston condo sales volume

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Condo Prices Increasing Faster Than Single-Family Homes

The post below is from  Dan Stone and his blog The Mortgage Report Daily. He is based in Madison Wisconsin. It also provides a good top level review of mortgages for condos. In our local markets its all about condos so it is interesting to see his mid western viewpoint..i.e. “Getting a mortgage for a condo can sometimes be a challenge”. Regardless it is a good and informative post. Sometimes we need to see what the middle of the country is thinking and doing.

 Case-Shiller Index : U.S. Condos Increasing In Value Faster Than Comparable Single-Family Homes

August 9,  2013.

Case-Shiller Index shows home prices in U.S. condominiums and co-ops outpacing single-family residences

As the U.S. housing market gains, it’s taking the condominium market with it.

Home price growth in condos and co-ops is outpacing growth in single-family residences. This is a major shift for the housing market — condos were among the most distressed sectors of last decade’s housing market downturn.

Home sellers are getting higher prices for their condos.

Los Angeles Condos Jump 23%; Chicago Rises 12%

According to the most recent Case-Shiller Index, home values climbed 12.2 percent nationwide for the 12 months ending May 2013. This jump marks the biggest one-year increase in home valuation since the Case-Shiller Index launched 26 years ago.

Each of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked cities posted annual gains, led by the San Francisco Bay Area; Las Vegas, Nevada; and Phoenix, Arizona. Home valuations in the Las Vegas are up 23% since from 12 months ago, which claws back against the heavy losses sustained last decade.

The “last place” finisher in the May 2013 Case-Shiller Index? New York City.

As compared to one year ago, home values in the city’s five boroughs — Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island — rose just 3.3 percent, which is well below the U.S. national average.

However, the Case-Shiller headline figure tells just part of the story.

In New York City, the market is thick with condominiums and co-ops and it just so happens that the Case-Shiller Index ignores homes of these types. If we were to add back condos and co-ops to the Case-Shiller Index data, we’d actually see that New York City is performing quite well.

In New York, condo values are up nearly 10% since last year — well above the broader index’s reading of 3.3 percent.

The same is true in other Case-Shiller Index markets, too. Condos in the 4 other cities tracked by the Case-Shiller Condominium Index showed strong annual gains, and each outpaced its home city.

  • Los Angeles, California : Condos +23.1% annually (versus +19.2% for single-family homes)
  • San Francisco, California : Condos + 27.6% annually (versus +24.5% for single-family homes)
  • Chicago, Illinois : Condos + 11.9% annually (versus +8.5% for single-family homes)
  • Boston, Massachusetts : Condos +8.7% annually (versus +7.5% for single-family homes)
  • New York City, New York : Condos + 9.8% annually (versus +3.3% for single-family homes)

With tight supply and limited construction, buyers of condos and co-ops should expect higher home prices through the end of 2013 and into early-2014, at least.

Mortgages For Condominiums

Getting a mortgage for a condo can sometimes be a challenge. Last decade, lenders were burned on condos for a variety of reasons and so they’ve bounced back on condo loans a bit more cautious and a bit more wise.

Today’s buyers of condos have fewer financing choices as compared to buyers of single-family detached homes.

As one example, buyers using conventional mortgage financing via Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac pay a premium for all loans with less than 25% equity. For this reason, buyers of condos and co-ops are encouraged to cap loans at 75% loan-to-value (LTV).

Condo loans above 75% LTV remain acceptable and approvable, however, the accompanying mortgage rate and/or closing costs will likely be higher.

VA loans for condos are available, too. VA loans allow 100% financing with no mortgage insurance required. Mortgage rates tend to be relatively low with a VA loan because all VA loans are guaranteed by the government.

In nearly all cases, though, buyers of condominiums will want to verify a building’s warrantability.

“Warrantability” is a mortgage term whether mortgages in a given condo building are eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Non-warrantable condos are sometimes denied for funding, but not always.

A building’s warrantability is based on a host of traits, some of which include :

  1. No person owns more than 10% of the building units
  2. No more than 50% of the building’s units are active rental units
  3. No more than 20% of the building is dedicated to commercial/retail space

To determine whether a building is warrantable or non-warrantable, mortgage lenders will often use a “condominium questionnaire”, which addresses the lendability of a building.

Non-warrantable condos can still be financed, it should be mentioned. Product availability, however, is limited and mortgage rates are sometimes higher.

The Case-Shiller Index reports rising values for today’s condos and co-ops. In many cases, condo prices have climbed more than for comparable single-family residences. Buyers of condos should expect rising prices.

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. You can also connect with Dan on Twitter and on Google+.

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Boston Prices Soar

Interesting fact from Trulia that Scott reported on Boston.com

Boston proces soar while the suburbs lag.

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis, Boston.com

Home and condo prices in Greater Boston’s suburbs rose a solid 6.1 percent over the first five months of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, real estate portal Trulia reports.

But Boston home and condo prices blew that number away, rising 10.1 percent during the same period.

While price increases in the cities are outpacing the suburbs around the country, Boston is in a league of its own, right along with New York, where prices are also on a tear.

“The difference makes it among the biggest gaps in the country,” Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist, commented in an email.

Yet despite or maybe because of the rising city prices, the suburbs are seeing markedly faster population growth.

While urban areas saw their overall population rise by .36 percent, the suburbs grew much faster, by .56 percent, Trulia reports.

Leading the upward charge in prices are “high-rise neighborhoods,” as well as ethnically diverse neighborhood and zip codes with a significant percentage of same sex couples.

Needless to say, such diversity is for the most part the monopoly of urban areas right now – a pattern particularly evident in Greater Boston. Our suburbs, for the most part, are the opposite of diverse.

Neighborhoods where no particular ethnic or racial group makes up the majority saw prices rise 14.3 percent. And in neighborhoods where same-sex couples account for more than 1 percent, prices rose a staggering 16.5 percent.

It does make you wonder whether the cities and suburbs are getting ready to change places now, with rising urban prices pushing anyone who can’t afford elevated prices and rents into the suburbs.

 

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Buy Now?

One of my new favorite real estate blogs is KCM.  A great post below clearly illustrates the simple reasons that buying now may not be a bad idea. Don’t you love the perfect nuclear family pictured? They don’t look particularly happy. Just saying! I don’t normally post “buy now”, “sell now” articles but occasionally they organize information and provide a bit of national context to our own micro market here.

Buying a House: Is Now the Time?

by THE KCM CREW 

bored

The real estate community is often criticized for always seeming to have a Pollyanna attitude about the housing market. Many believe that the industry’s current call ‘to buy now’ is nothing more than a scare tactic with the sole purpose of creating more commissions for the industry. Let’s take a look at whether or not that advice was good advice over the last year.

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. According to the most recent Case-Shiller Home Pricing Index, home values have risen over 10% in the last year. If we look at Freddie Mac’sWeekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the 30 year mortgage rate has increased from 3.67% to 3.91% during that same period.

The table below compares the cost of the same exact house over the last twelve months:

difference

We can see that the advice to buy a year ago made complete financial sense.

What About Moving Forward?

Most experts are not only calling for prices to continue to rise but are also upgrading their projections as the housing market is showing strong signs of recovering.

Regarding interest rates, the 30 year mortgage rate has soared by over a half point already this year and many believe that the increases will continue. Even those trying to be the voice of reason on this issue are projecting higher rates. For example, Polyana da Costa, senior mortgage analyst at Bankrate.com said:

“Rates are unlikely to keep going up so quickly and should remain below 5 percent.”

Bottom Line

The next time a real estate professional says that now is the time to buy they may not be giving you a ‘sales pitch’. They may be giving you nothing but excellent advice.

 

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Mass Home Prices Jump 14%

 

Mass. home prices jump 14%

By Jenifer B. McKim

MAY 29, 2013

 

The median price for single-family homes in Massachusetts rose to $313,000 in April, a near 14 percent increase compared to the same time last year as increased buyer demand and a tight housing inventory pushed up home values, new data released Wednesday shows.

April marked the seventh month in a row of rising home prices, according to the Warren Group, a Boston company that tracks local real estate. Between January and April, the median selling price climbed to $294,000, an 11 percent jump compared to the same time last year, according to Warren.

The steep price increase comes as home sales decline. Single-family home sales dropped to 3,504 in April, about 1 percent less than the same time in 2012.

”There is high demand and low inventory this spring, which is causing this pattern of rising prices and dropping sales volume,” said Timothy M. Warren Jr., chief executive of The Warren Group. “Low mortgage rates and steady home values are helping buoy consumer confidence.”

Tight inventory, however, did not hinder sales of condominiums, which climbed more than 8 percent in April compared to the same time last year, the Warren Group reported. Median prices for condos rose to $280,000, a near 1 percent jump compared to April, 2012.

Housing specialists worry that if more sellers don’t come to the table, the housing market could sputter. Inventory of single-family homes in April fell 27.1 percent compared to the same time last year, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, which also released data Wednesday. The number of condos for sale fell 32.4 percent last month, compared to the same time last year.

Providing some relief, new listings for both condos and single-family homes rose in the double digits in April.

“With home prices improving, sellers are finally gaining the confidence they need to list their home,” said association president Kimberly Allard-Moccia, owner of Century 21 Professionals in Braintree. “This should help move us closer to a more balanced market.”

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Core Logic Acquires Case-Shiller

Interesting development. The Case-Shiller guys regularly updated Boston realtors throughout my career in Boston. Nice to hear that they will now have an even broader platform.

by  in Economic News

CoreLogic revenue up, acquires Case-Shiller

The first quarter results are in, and CoreLogic not only reports revenues up by 10.9 percent, operating income is up 22.2 percent and their full-year common share repurchase target has been raised from 3 to 5 million shares. With healthy revenues, the company also unveiled that they have acquired Case-Shiller from Fiserv, Inc. for roughly $6.0 million.

Case-Shiller has long been one of the most widely accepted economic indicators in real estate, strengthening CoreLogic’s role as what they call a “leading residential property information, analytics and services provider.” The acquisition close don March 20, 2013 and was announced this week with the first quarter CoreLogic earnings results.

CoreLogic says they will continue to offer its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI), which they say “represents the most geographically comprehensive and current set of home price indexes available.”

What each will be called, how they will operate

The Case-Shiller Indexes will be renamed the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will retain their brand name. The CoreLogic HPI and the Case-Shiller Indexes are complementary measures of home price trends utilizing the same baseline methodology of repeat home sales.

Dr. David Stiff, Chief Economist for Case-Shiller, will continue to supervise the preparation of the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and comment on the findings of those indexes while Dr. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, will continue to supervise the preparation of the CoreLogic HPI reports and comment on the findings of those reports.

The company notes that the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes offer over 6,000 indexes covering states, counties, metros and ZIP codes across the U.S., and 30 year home price forecasts for all indexes which are used to track residential real estate trends, manage price risk, value loan portfolios, estimate default probabilities and loss severity within specific markets, and to determine firm capital sufficiency.

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Why Is Inventory So Low?

Excerpts taken from a great post by Mike Simonsen of Altos Research.

 Three Reasons Why Housing Inventory is So Low

 by MIKE SIMONSEN

There’s no question about it, the operative theme of the 2013 housing market isrestricted supply. Ever since the bubble burst in 2006, we’ve been hearing about the dangers of over supply, of the massive “shadow inventory” out there. Yet we’re living in a vastly different reality. There are 40% fewer homes on the market now than there have been during February in the last few years.

Percent of homes with Price ReductionsInventory of actively for sale homes. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of February 22, 2013. Source: Altos Research

Mid-January typically marks the seasonal low of available housing inventory. The fewest homes are on the market after the holidays. But pretty quickly they start coming on the market to prepare for spring. Inventory gets added until the first week of July, when people start looking forward to the Autumn.

Last week we commented about the rising prices that have resulted from this restricted supply. Imagine what would happen to the price of oil if Saudi Arabia, Russia, The US, China, Iran, and Canada were all offline.  It’s a, ahem, crude analogy, because housing is less a commodity than oil. But the fact is, we’re facing unprecedented few homes available for sale.

Why is that? What happened to all this “Shadow Inventory” that was going to dump on to the market?

You can boil the low-inventory reality down to three primary factors:

1-Under-Construction

Since 2007, new housing starts have been anemic. The long-term average construction rates are about 1.5MM homes per year. In the last six years, we’ve averaged well under 1MM. And since 2009, the average is closer to 500,000. Meanwhile population and household formation keeps on trucking. The over-construction that happened in the bubble is a distant memory. See the chart to the right. Construction volume under the orange line are “undersupplied” conditions. The homebuilders imploded so profoundly after the bubble, that we haven’t had this few new homes being built since 1959.

Expect this trend to continue for several more years. It’s difficult to ramp up housing production quickly. And we’re a long way below normal.

Percent of homes with Price ReductionsInventory of actively for sale homes. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of January, 2013. Source Census Bureau viathemortgagereports.com

2-The Reverse Shadow Inventory Dynamic

Rising home prices have led to fewer, not more, existing  homes coming on the market. You might call this, ironically, the “Reverse Shadow Inventory” dynamic.

When the Shadow Inventory meme emerged during the bubble, the bearish argument followed: As soon as home price tick back up, there are going to be millions of people (and banks) who want to unload. Therefore supply will rise and prices will fall again.

In actuality, it seems the psychology has been reversed: As prices have climbed, those who (still) own their underwater homes finally see light at the end of the tunnel. The longer they hold, the closer they are to recovery. Why sell now if you don’t have to? Maybe you’ll make it out alive!

Banks are acting similarly. The owners of underwater mortgages have no incentive to unload quickly. Their assets are appreciating. Furthermore, as home prices increase, fewer and fewer people are at risk of default. The Shadow is shrinking in the noon-day sunshine of rapidly re-inflating home values.

3-Government Policy

Finally, it is no coincidence that essentially all housing policy, all programs, laws, and incentives have been focused on stimulating demand and restricting supply. The Fed is aggressively keeping interest rates low. HARP, HAMP and related mortgage crisis programs are designed to keep people in their homes. They have been successful. Politically, it’s near impossible to institute a program that might help home buyers. For whatever reason, the bureaucrats are much more fond of home owners. That’s unlikely to change.

We’re in a hangover of short supply after the burst bubble. Low new construction, low incentive for existing homes to sell, and a government that wants people to stay put. Like a good hangover, these are long, slow, painful conditions.  We’ll ease slowly out of the fog in the next few seasonal cycles.

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February MAR Report

 The Massachusetts Association of REALTORS® (MAR) reported today that February pending home sales were positive for the 22nd straight month compared to the year before, but winter weather kept gains modest. Pending sales figures (also called homes under agreement) are a leading indicator of actual housing sales in Massachusetts for the following 2-3 months.

“While we were still in positive territory, the combination of low inventory and several weekends snow storms, including a blizzard, kept buyer activity relatively minimal in February,” said 2013 MAR President-Elect Peter Ruffini, regional vice president at Jack Conway REALTORS® in Norwell. “After a ‘non-winter’ in 2012, the fact that pending home sales were still up in February is a good sign for the market.”
The number of single-family homes put under agreement in February was up 1.1 percent compared to the same time last year (3,041 homes in 2012 to 3,075 homes in 2013). This is the 22 nd straight month of year-over-year increases. On a month-to-month basis, single-family homes put under agreement were flat compared to 3,076 homes put under agreement in January 2013.
The number of condos put under agreement in February was up 11.9 percent compared to February 2012 (1,146 units in 2012 to 1,282 units in 2013). This is the 22nd straight month of year-over-year increases. On a month-to-month basis, condos put under agreement went UP 5 percent from 1,216 units in January 2013.

 

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Existing Home Sales At Highest

525 Commercial St SOLD $1.25M

My favorite Agent Genius Blogger Tara’s excellent national real estate analysis provides terrific context as  I begin to post year end local analysis. Anyone can use figures to come up with most any result but clearly consensus is that nationally we are on the road to a housing recovery…and locally  we are in  much better shape than most markets in the US.

by  in Real Estate & Housing News   

Existing home sales are up, prices are improving, inventory is tight, and housing is showing signs of improvement, but the sector has found its bottom and is not recovered, rather starting that long road toward a recovery.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales continued to improve in November with low inventory supply pressuring home prices, rising 5.9 percent for the month, spiking 14.5 percent compared to November 2011. NAR reports that sales are at the highest level since November 2009.

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is healthy market demand. “Momentum continues to build in the housing market from growing jobs and a bursting out of household formation. “With lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with still historically favorable affordability conditions, more people are buying homes. Areas impacted by Hurricane Sandy show storm-related disruptions but overall activity in the Northeast is up, offset by gains in unaffected areas.”

Median prices, and the impact of distressed properties

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent compared to November 2011, marking the ninth consecutive monthly year-over-year price gain, which has not happened since September 2005 to May 2006.

Distressed home sales accounted for 22 percent of November sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), down from 24.0 percent in October and 29.0 percent in November 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20.0 percent below market value in November, while short sales were discounted 16 percent.

Dr. Yun said, “The market share of distressed property sales will fall into the teens next year based on a diminishing number of seriously delinquent mortgages.”

Inventory levels tightening

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 3.8 percent to 2.03 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace; it was 5.3 months in October, and is the lowest housing supply since September of 2005 when it was 4.6 months.

Listed inventory is 22.5 percent below a year ago when there was a 7.1-month supply. Raw unsold inventory is now at the lowest level since December 2001 when there were 1.89 million homes on the market.

The median time on market was 70 days in November, slightly below 71 days in October, but is 28.6 percent below 98 days in November 2011. Fully 32.0 percent of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month, while 20.0 percent were on the market for six months or longer; these findings are unchanged from October.

Buyer types in the market

First time buyers accounted for 30 percent of purchases in November, down from 31 percent in October and 35 percent in November 2011.

All-cash sales were at 30 percent of transactions in November, up slightly from 29 percent in October and 28 percent in November 2011. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 19 percent of homes in November, little changed from 20 percent in October; they were 19 percent in November 2011.

Single-family home sales rose 5.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million in November from 4.21 million in October, and are 12.4 percent higher than the 3.95 million-unit level in November 2011. The median existing single-family home price was $180,600 in November, up 10.1 percent from a year ago.

Regional performance varied

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 620,000 in November and are 14.8 percent above November 2011. The median price in the Northeast was $232,900, down 2.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 7.2 percent in November to a pace of 1.19 million and are 21.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $141,600, which is 7.0 percent above November 2011.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 7.9 percent to an annual level of 2.04 million in November and are 17.2 percent above November 2011. The median price in the South was $157,400, up 10.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 0.8 percent a pace of 1.19 million in November and are 4.4 percent higher than a year ago. With ongoing inventory constraints, the median price in the West was $248,300, which is 23.9 percent above November 2011.

existing home sales Existing home sales at highest level in four years

Exercising cautious optimism

As opposed to former eras, the NAR is approaching their future forecasting with cautious optimism. Dr. Yun said that the housing market recovery should “continue through coming years” unless the nation falls off of the “fiscal cliff,” and assuming that there are no further limitations on the availability of mortgage credit.

Dr. Yun pointed to improving existing and new home sales and housing starts as all seeing “notable gains this year in contrast with suppressed activity in the previous four years, and all of the major home price measures are showing sustained increases.”

Many economists agree that there are gains being made in housing, but we urge all to note that these signs of improvement are only signs of improvement, and not an actual recovery, as housing is just now moving past bottoming out and we’re finding signs of life which is hopeful, but not yet a recovery.

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Signs Of Recovery Even With The Cliff!

A repost of Jennifer McKim’s article in the Boston Globe follows. It shows significant evidence that we are in a real estate recovery even in the broader Massachusetts market.  We have been experiencing The Recovery in downtown Boston and on the outer Cape for months now, but this broader evidence is very welcome news as we enter the NewYear.

The pullquote below from the article states what we are hearing all aross the country. Good news especially as we deal with the ramifications of the possible Fiscal Cliff.

“It feels like a housing market that has now switched into the mode of helping drive a recovery,

The Boston Globe/December 28, 2012/Jennifer McKim GLOBE STAff

  • Analysts say prices remained stable, while the number of single­family units sold rose steeply
  • A surge in home sales in November and strengthening property values are adding to a growing sentiment in the real estate industry that 2012 will mark when the housing market in Massachusetts officially began its recovery.

SOURCE: The Warren Group
JAMES ABUNDIS/GLOBE STAFF With the supply of available properties still thin, homes are selling quickly and prices are edging up, prompting real estate specialists to predict that the days of bargain prices for residences are likely to be over soon.

“This year marks the shift in housing,” said John Ranco of Hammond Residential Real Estate in South Boston. “Over the next couple of years we will start to see prices heat up a little bit.”

Last month, 4,539 single-family properties traded owners — the best November for sales since the market peak in 2005, the Warren Group, a Boston company that tracks local real estate, reported Thursday.

The number of single-family home sales through the first 11 months of 2012 exceeded that of all of last year, and the year will probably be the strongest since 2006.

Through the first 11 months of the year, home prices were about where they were for 2011 — at a median price of $288,000 — a trend that industry officials said represents a stabilized market.

In the more active market in Greater Boston, median prices were 1.1 percent above where they were in 2011, at $456,500 for single-family properties, according to the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. It’s been seven years since the housing market in Massachusetts first showed signs of slowing, and during the steepest period of the downturn values plunged 20 percent, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show. Prices have since rebounded modestly, though values have also bounced during the past three years.

But now, prices appear to be on the upswing — with Boston area home values up 1.6 percent in October, compared with the same month in 2011, according to Case-Shiller, which measures repeat sales and is largely considered the best marker of the housing industry.

“It is clear that the housing recovery is gaining strength,’’ said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

This good news comes despite uncertainty over the socalled fiscal cliff and possible changes in the mortgage interest deduction, which provides thousands of dollars in annual savings to many mortgage holders.

There are still many unknowns that could turn the market around.

However, Eric Belsky, managing director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, said he foresees a strong spring season, propelled by tight inventory and low mortgage rates. He also expects markets outside of Boston to strengthen.

“It feels like a housing market that has now switched into the mode of helping drive a recovery,” Belsky said.

Meanwhile, the condo market appears to be even stronger. The number of condos sold in November, 1,635, was 33 percent above the number a year earlier, according to the Warren Group. Year-to-date condo sales rose 27 percent, compared with a year earlier.

Prices are up, too. The median condo sales price was $275,000 in November, more than 7 percent higher than a year earlier.

Warren Group chief executive Timothy M. Warren Jr. said the condo market is thriving because young people and baby boomers are increasingly interested in living in the city, with all its amenities. “Urban living is gaining ground,” he said.

Both condos and single-family homes are selling faster this year, too. And so the supply of available properties is tightening: The number of single-family homes on the market last month was 25.9 percent fewer than in November 2011, with similar declines in the condo market.

Mary O’ Donaghue, president of the the Northeast Association of Realtors, said she expects that improving consumer confidence, low interest rates, and tight inventory will keep housing moving in the spring.

“We are entering a spring market with close to ideal conditions,” she said.

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Boston’s Fiscal (Listing) Cliff

Great post from Curbed Boston Blog!

Here is the latest installment of Bates By the Numbers, a weekly feature by broker David Bates that drills down into the Hub’s housing market to uncover those trends you would not otherwise see. This week, David looks at the effects of Boston’s absurdly low condo inventory on the city

Boston%20Inventory%20as%20of%2012-12.jpgMcDonald’s would never run out of hamburgers.

Amazon would never run out of books.

But could Greater Boston run out of reasonably priced condos?

Currently, the city’s on-market condominium inventory is scary low. It’s so low that if we were using actively marketed Boston condos as gas for our car, we might not make it to the closest station to fill up. A year ago, Boston had nearly twice as many condos on the market as it does today. Brookline had two-and-a-half times its current condo selection and South Boston was marketing more than three times the 46 condos currently being marketed. Put simply: Regardless of price, there are very few condos available to buy in Boston; and, when demand is high and supply is low, prices go up.

You might not realize how the pricing menu of Greater Boston condos has changed in just a year. A year ago (12/12/11), the median list price of an on-market condo in the South End was $575K. Today, the median is $749K. Which is more incredible: the $174K increase or the fact that 02118 now has a 90210 median list price?

In Greater Boston, rising median list prices are not relegated to the South End. Brookline’s median list price for on-market condos is $202K higher than it was a year ago, up from $538K to $740K. And a year ago in Back Bay, the median list price for on-market condos was a cool million—today it is a cool $1.47 million. That new median might get Robin Leach excited, but if you’re looking for modestly priced Boston condos to buy, it’s an indication you just might have a better chance of seeing the Jets win the Super Bowl this year.

When Boston housing prices spiraled out of control between 2001 and 2005, the Boston Foundation’s Housing Report Card stated that it contributed to 60,000 more people leaving the Hub than coming to it, many of them in the 20- to 34-year-old age demographic. FYI, back in 2005, when there was no marketing of condos after they had technically found buyers, the city had five times the amount of condos on the market as it does today and the median listing price of the on-market inventory was $390K. Today the median list price of Boston’s on-market available-to-purchase inventory is $483K, which provokes the request: Would the last hipster to leave the Hub please take the titanium spork with him?