Tag: Boston real estate

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Q1 Goode and Farmer Report Boston

 

The national real estate pundits are talking about the lack of available inventory and declining sales numbers. These first quarter results for downtown Boston condominium sales tell a different story. The average sales price for condos in downtown Boston neighborhoods increased 21%. Sale were up by 12%. Total sale volume was up by 35%.

The South End and Back Bay neighborhoods reflect the more  standard state of the real estate industry here in eastern MA. Prices are up because of buyer demand, but sales are down and volume is flat – the effect of the critically depressed inventory of available condos for sale.

 

Boston chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Boston is  standout neighborhood! Average sales price up 20%.  Sales up 41%. Volume up 71%…and interestingly enough the only neighborhood with an increase in days on market, a result of additional inventory.

The all important spring market will be very important in determining the state of the real estate market in Boston.

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Condos Sizzle

Interesting post by Scott.

Condos party like it’s 1989

 

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Condos haven’t sizzled like this since the crazy condo boom of the 1980s.

OK, I took a little liberty with the headline. After all, by 1989 the great 80s condo boom had already started to go bust, but you get the point.

Condo prices are on a tear, rising 18.4 percent during the first two months of 2014 compared to last year, reports The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

Even stranger still, condo prices have almost caught up with home values, which they traditionally lag by a considerable margin.

The median sale price for a condo in Massachusetts this February topped $281,000, just $4,000 below the median home price of $285,500, Warren Group numbers show.

So what’s going on here?

Well, for starters, the relentless decline in listings of homes for sale is doing more than just driving up Boston-area prices.

It also appears to be pushing some buyers into the condo market in search of affordable alternatives.

Of course, as more buyers switch to condos, that’s now having the unfortunate effect of driving up condo prices as well,

But we are also likely seeing the impact of empty-nesters moving into the condo market as well.

Remember all those Baby Boomers who wanted to downsize a few years ago, but couldn’t sell their homes? Well now they are finally making their move.

However, instead of buying another home, they are going condo

And, of course, let’s not forget all those luxury condos that are selling like hotcakes in downtown Boston – and skewing the median price upward.

“The 18.4 percent increase in condo median prices so far this year is an indicator that condominiums are increasingly popular and we have a strong mix of luxury condos in the sales totals,” said Tim Warren, chief executive of The Warren Group, in a statement.

“Empty-nesters are ready for a change in lifestyle and have the net worth to take the plunge,” he said.

 

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3 Reasons The Market Will Thrive In 2014

 

Another great and succinct post by the KCM gang!

3 Reasons the Housing Market Should Thrive in 2014

by 

three

Recently, HousingWire asked David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide, for his opinion on the near-term future of housing. Below are what Mr. Berson believes to be the three things you need to know about housing in 2014. We have included a quote from the article and a small comment from KCM for all three points.

Number 1: 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since before the Great Recession

“Most economists expect an improved job market in 2014, with employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate continuing to decline. That jobless rate drop will reflect more of a pickup in employment than further declines in the labor force participation rate. This will be the key factor improving housing demand this year, even if mortgage rates rise and affordability declines. While the housing market tends to do especially well when the job market improves and mortgage rates decline simultaneously, that combination of events occurs only rarely…People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.”

KCM Comment:

We agree that the job market will continue to improve and that rising interest rates will not be a detriment to the market in 2014. As Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist atFannie Mae, recently revealed:

“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track.”

Number 2: Demographics should start to favor housing activity

“If the economy expands at a faster pace this year, bringing a more rapid rate of job creation, that should translate into more households, raising housing demand. We won’t see all three million missing households return to the housing market at once. (That wouldn’t be a good thing for the housing market anyway, since that would be on top of the 1.2 million households that normally would develop this year; such a surge would swamp the existing housing supply). Beginning in 2014, the pace of household formations should accelerate to an above-trend pace for several years, pushing up housing demand.”

KCM Comment:

The Urban Land Institute recently released a report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014, projecting that 4.48 million new households will be formed over the next three years. Millennials will make up a large portion of these new households. With the economy improving, we believe they will finally be moving out of their parents’ homes and, after they compare renting versus buying, many will choose homeownership.

Number 3: Mortgage availability shouldn’t worsen and may improve

“The rise in mortgage rates already has reduced mortgage origination volumes as refinance activity declines. If mortgage rates rise further this year, as expected, then refinance activity will fall still more. In response, mortgage lenders probably will ease lending standards to the extent possible under the QM rules to boost lending activity by increasing purchase originations. As a result, the increase in new households expected to be created this year, spurred by a stronger job market, should find that qualifying for a mortgage loan will be somewhat easier in 2014 than in prior years.”

KCM Comment:

We also believe that, as the refinancing market begins to dry up, mortgage entities will be more aggressive in the purchase money market (mortgages necessary to purchase a home). There even seems to be recent evidence that lending standards are actually loosening.

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When Will Home Values Return To Peak?

Interesting post with a national perspective from HW  Housing Wire’s Trey Garrison.

Home prices won’t return to peak levels until when?

Clear Capital sees 3-5% appreciation rate

 

Home prices are growing slowly but remain in line with inflation, Clear Capital reported in its Home Data Index, but at this pace it will be 2021 before they return to peak prices.

National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth. Home prices have typically gained between 3% and 5% a year.

At the current quarterly rate of national growth, peak prices won’t be reached until the year 2021.

“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as the point of reference, and back to current trends and forecasts,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms, given the current economic climate.”

“For new deals and investors without legacy assets, the new housing environment should be framed in terms of more typical, moderate rates of growth with tempered optimism for the ongoing housing recovery,” Villacorta said.

He added that Clear Capital sees a steady growth pattern, and no bubbles in housing.

“Nationally, we don’t see evidence of a price bubble forming again. Double digit gains over the last year, while similar to rates of growth in the run-up to the bubble, are off a much lower price floor. Phoenix and Las Vegas, however, are showing signs of overheating,” he said.

“These markets skyrocketed off very low price floors as their low-tier and distressed market segments exploded with demand,” Villacorta added. “Each market saw yearly gains top out around 30%, and now are seeing price gains cool substantially. Las Vegas has seen more than a 10 percentage point pull back in just three short months, even though prices remain 20.8% below 2000 levels, after adjusting for inflation. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s yearly gains are down to 19.8%, with prices now 1.9% above 2000 levels after adjusting for inflation. We’ll be watching these markets closely throughout the winter to see how demand holds up.”

Inflation adjusted home prices at the metro level show 46 out of 50 metro markets’ home price levels at pre-2003 levels, with 25 out of 50 metros reporting prices below 2000 levels.

Because the majority of markets remain far off peak values, the peak becomes a less relevant point of reference for new investors and homebuyers. Honolulu is the only metro out of the top 50 to see home prices within peak levels, with inflation adjusted home prices resting at levels last seen in 2005. This anomaly has, in part, been driven by very unique supply and demand, a benefit of being a highly desirable tropical island.

While prices remain far off peak values, current trends continue to moderate across the country.

National yearly gains cooled to 10.8%, a trend that should continue over the next several months. Yearly gains at the metro level are moderating as well, with Sacramento now seeing the highest yearly gain at 25.4%, down from a high of 28% in October. Las Vegas has seen substantial pull back in January with yearly gains of just 21.3%, down from 32.4% in October.

Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes is a granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.

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How Cool Is This Chart?

How far will a million bucks go in NYC?

$1 million will likely net more space in NYC versus San Francisco and Boston.


By Business Insider

According to Knight Frank data cited by CNBC’s Robert Frank, a million dollars goes a lot further in Cape Town than it would in Monaco.

But what about in the U.S.?

We looked at housing list price data from real estate brokerage Movoto.com and real estate marketplace Zillow.com. The diagram below shows the number of square feet of housing that you can buy for $1,000,000, based on the median price per square foot in each city:

city-real-estate-chart-corrected

With a median list price of $666 per square foot, San Francisco’s real estate boom limits a million dollars to buying about 1,500 square feet. On the other end of the spectrum, the median list price in beleaguered Detroit is just $12 per square foot — 55 times cheaper than in San Francisco.

Considering all five boroughs, the median price per square foot in New York City is $424. Looking just at Manhattan however, that price jumps to an astronomical $1,538 per square foot, leading to $1,000,000 buying just 650 square feet.

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Buyers Feeling Blue

Another interesting post by Scott about buyer attitudes in Boston

Home buyers feeling blue

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Can’t look at one more fixer-upper? Tired of bidding wars on every half-decent home that comes on the market? Wondering when, if ever, prices will go down, or at least level off, in Greater Boston?

Wondering if we have gone from global warming to a new ice age?

If so, you’ve got a bad case of the home-buyer blues, with Boston area house hunters particularly vulnerable to this new malady, a new report finds.

Confidence in the housing market among Boston area buyers is falling, according to a newreport out by Zillow and is now somewhat below the national average.

Boston’s score on Zillow’s “housing confidence index” weighs in at 63.4, below the national average of 63.7.

Meanwhile, only 8 percent of Boston area renters want to buy in the next year, compared to 10 percent nationally.

By contrast, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Miami have the highest percentage of renters looking to buy.

Rising prices and a growing dearth of homes to actually look at are two likely suspects
here.

But Zillow is not the only one picking up on some increasingly negative vibes coming from home buyers as the spring market gets ready to kick off.

Only 25 percent of house hunters across the country think it is a good time to buy now, compared to 40 percent last year, Redfin reports.

OK, to borrow a popular line from Realtor trade groups, maybe it’s all the nasty weather out there that is getting buyers down.

However, while the wintry view outside the window doesn’t help, there is clearly much more to this story than that.

 

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Boston’s Best Selling Condo Buildings

Interesting post by  Tom Acitelli at CurbedBoston – with some surprising results.

 

Boston’s Best-Selling Condo Buildings

Tuesday, March 11, 2014, by Tom Acitelli

dorave141.jpg
[141 Dorchester Avenue]

‘Tis a busy, busy time in the Boston condo market, what with lightning-fast sales and super-low inventory (two not-unrelated phenomena). But which are the busiest of the busiest condo buildings in the city? Thanks to the crackerjack research of our pals at PropertyShark, we can give you a very good idea. Herewith the 10 Boston condos with the most sales in 2013. Some of the usual suspects are here—Harbor Towers, the W Boston—but also a few surprises (and surprise omissions, we think:paging Millennium Place?). A couple of caveats: The 10 cover closed deals in calendar year 2013, and only deals of at least $10,000.

42 EIGHTH STREET
Number of sales: 48
Median sales price: $380,000
Notable sale: a 1,295-square-foot 1-BR, 2-BA for $700,000
42 8TH STREET, BOSTON, MA 02129
141 DORCHESTER AVENUE
Number of sales: 46
Median sales price: $610,000
Notable sale: a 1,690-square-foot 2-BR, 2-BA for $845,000
141 DORCHESTER AVENUE, BOSTON, MA 02127
45 PROVINCE
Number of sales: 36
Median sales price: $1,262,500
Notable sale: a 2,628-square-foot 3-BR, 3-BA for $4,100,000
45 PROVINCE STREET, BOSTON, MA 02108
WHITTIER PLACE
34
$434,500
A 536-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $360,000
6 WHITTIER PLACE, BOSTON, MA 02114
ONE CHARLES BOSTON
29
$1,345,000
A 761-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $625,000
1 CHARLES STREET SOUTH, BOSTON, MA 02116
RESIDENCES AT RITZ-CARLTON
27
$747,000
A 2,667-square-foot 3-BR, 4.5-BA for $3,162,500.
1 AVERY STREET, BOSTON, MA 02111
W BOSTON
27
$1,730,000
A 427-square-foot studio for $530,000
110 STUART STREET, BOSTON, MA 02116
RESIDENCES AT THE INTERCONTINENTAL
23
$1,425,000
A 3,385-square-foot 3-BR, 4.5-BA for $3,223,000
500 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON, MA 02110
PORTER 156
22
$349,500
A 686-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $300,000
156 PORTER STREET, BOSTON, MA 02128
HARBOR TOWERS
22
$737,750
A 1,223-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $780,000
65 EAST INDIA ROW, BOSTON, MA 02110
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The Sky Is Not Falling

A perfect post by the incredible KCM crew. They do a great job highlighting assumptions around what is causing the national trend towards decreasing sales numbers, and then debunking them with Reality. We are seeing some of these dynamics in our local markets. This is a very good post with a broad national slant on the issues…for consumers and agent/brokers too.

Be Quiet Chicken Little. The Sky is NOT Falling

by 

There has been much speculation about what is causing the falling sales numbers in the most recent Existing Home Sales Reports (EHS) from theNational Association of Realtors (NAR). Some have claimed that rising interest rates have scared buyers out of the market. Others have claimed that consumers are just losing confidence in the housing recovery fearing a new bubble may be forming. We want to look at the validity of these two assumptions.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

ASSUMPTION: Rising interest rates have forced buyers back onto the fence. Evidence offered up by those in this camp comes directly from the EHS Report from NAR. Three of the last four reports revealed that sales were below sales from the same month the previous year.

THE REALITY: Though it is true year-over-year sales have fallen nationally, a closer look at the report reveals major regional differences. Sales in the West Region are down 10.7% versus the same month last year. Sales in the Midwest Region are also down but by less than 1%. The Northeast Region is up 3.2% and the Southern Region is up 4.6%.

If the issue is interest rates, why is one region virtually unchanged and two of the remaining three regions up in sales? We don’t believe rates are the challenge.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE in REAL ESTATE is ERODING

ASSUMPTION: The pace of the recent price increases has caused many to fear the emergence of a new housing bubble. Similar to the first assumption, evidence offered up by those in this camp comes directly from the less than enthusiastic EHS Reports from NAR.

THE REALITY: As we mentioned before, sales in the Midwest Region are down but by less than 1%. The Northeast and the Southern Region have both shown increased sales as compared to the year before. Are only the consumers in the Western Region afraid of a possible bubble forming?

The fear of a new housing bubble is vastly overstated. Forty states have not yet returned to home values they experienced seven to nine years ago. Nineteen of those forty states still have home prices 15% or more below peak prices. We believe home values will continue to increase but just at a slower rate of appreciation.

It is not just us that believe this is the case. The over 100 housing experts recently surveyed by Pulsenomics revealed that they believe prices will continue to appreciate at historical annual numbers (3-4%) for at least the next five years.

THEN WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE?

If the lack of sales is not the result of increasing interest rates or decreasing consumer confidence, what actually is happening? We believe it can be broken down to three words: LACK of INVENTORY.

Inventories of foreclosure and short sale properties are falling like a rock in the vast majority of regions across the nation. These two categories of homes have driven the market for the last few years. As foreclosures and short sales sell, they are not being replaced because the economy has gotten better and more families have regained control of their finances. All fifty states have seen a decrease in the number of homeowners who are seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments with thirty nine states seeing the number shrink by over 20%.

This inventory has not yet begun to be replaced by the non-distressed properties in the country. Just this month, NAR revealed that the months’ inventory of homes for sale has dropped to only a 4 month supply. A normal market has between 5-6 months’ supply.

This is the main reason home sales are declining in certain regions – there are just not enough houses for sale.

BOTTOM LINE

With the economy improving and with homeowners gaining back some equity they lost when prices fell, we believe there will be many homes coming unto the market this spring. A recent survey revealed that 71% of homeowners are at least considering selling their home in 2014.

If you are thinking of selling, beating this increased competition to the market before spring might make sense – and might enable you to get the best price possible for your home.

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Existing Home Sales Take A Dive…

I haven’t reposted anything by Tara Steele of AG recently but this post tells a smart national perspective.

HOUSING NEWS

Existing home sales take a dip

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales dipped 5.1 percent in January from December’s revised sales numbers. This places sales at their lowest level since July 2012, which they blame squarely on the perpetual inventory shortages, which also serves to continue lifting prices, which is good news to some (homeowners) and bad news to others (buyers).

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, also stated that unusual weather is playing a role. “Disruptive and prolonged winter weather patterns across the country are impacting a wide range of economic activity, and housing is no exception. Some housing activity will be delayed until spring.”

“At the same time,” Dr. Yun added, “we can’t ignore the ongoing headwinds of tight credit, limited inventory, higher prices and higher mortgage interest rates. These issues will hinder home sales activity until the positive factors of job growth and new supply from higher housing starts begin to make an impact.”

Median existing home price

NAR reports that the median existing home price for all housing types was $188,900 in January, up a whopping 10.7 percent from January 2013.

Distressed homes accounted for 15 percent of sales (11 percent were foreclosures, and only 4 percent were short sales), down from 24 percent in January 2013. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value and short sales were discounted 13 percent.

Housing inventory levels

Although NAR cites ongoing inventory problems, housing inventory did rise 2.2 percent for the month, and rose 7.3 percent compared to January 2013. Inventory now represents a 4.9-month supply at the current sales pace.

The median time on market was 67 days in January, down from 72 days in December and 71 days on market in December 2013. Non-distressed homes sold in 66 days, foreclosures typically sold in 58 days, and short sales spent 150 days on the market. NAR reports that nearly one in three homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.

Who’s buying right now?

The number of first time buyers are slowly dwindling, hitting 26 percent of all sales in January, down from 27 percent in December and 30 percent in January 2013.

The trade group said in a statement, “This is the lowest market share for first-time buyers since NAR began monthly measurement in October 2008; normally, they should be closer to 40 percent.”

Fully 33 percent of sales were paid for with cash, up from 32 percent in December and 28 percent in January 2013. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in January, compared with 21 percent in December and 19 percent in January 2013. Seven out of 10 investors paid cash in January.

Regional performance varies

Existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 3.1 percent to an annual rate of 620,000 in January, and are also 3.1 percent below January 2013. The median price in the Northeast was $241,100, up 6.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 7.1 percent in January to a pace of 1.04 million, and are 8.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,300, which is 7.6 percent higher than January 2013.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 3.5 percent to an annual level of 1.95 million in January, but are 1.6 percent higher than January 2013. The median price in the South was $161,500, up 9.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dropped 7.3 percent to a pace of 1.01 million in January, and are 13.7 percent below a year ago. Sales in the West are attenuated by tight inventory in many areas, pushing the median price to $273,500, up 14.6 percent from January 2013.

 

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Condo Prices Shatter Record

 

Great post from Scott.

Mass condo prices shatter record

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis
Yes, condo prices are getting nutty again.

The median price of a condo in Massachusetts crossed the $300,000 threshold in January.

That’s the highest condo price ever for a January since The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, began tracking condo prices back in 1987.

It also represents a 24 percent increase from January 2013, when the median price for a condo in the Bay State was at a relatively more affordable $242,000.

By comparison, the median U.S. home price weighs in at $188,900. And that’s after a 10 percent increase in January.

Condo sales were also up by a pretty sizable 16 percent, with 1,144 units changing hands the first month of the year, The Warren Group reports.

What’s even more amazing, condo prices are not all that far behind single-family home prices in Massachusetts, with the median home price in January rising 16 percent, to $315,000.

Condos have long been a starter home alternative in pricey Greater Boston, but it’s not clear how much longer that’s going to last given current trends.

Certainly condo prices are out of sight now in Cambridge, Boston and the inner suburbs.

Of course, the price increases might be good news for sellers, but it’s hardly anything for buyers to cheer about. Even if you are trying to sell a house in order to move up into something grander, you are still going to be scrambling to keep up when prices are rising at double digits.

So what’s driving this price escalation? Some of it is due to pent-up demand, but low inventory – basically not enough listings for all the buyers out there – is the bigger problem right now.

The inventory of single-family homes dropped more than 20 percent in January compared to January 2013, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reports this morning. (There were 15,246 listings this past January, compared to 19,142 the year before.)

Condo inventory was down even more, by 27 percent, to 4,232, MAR reports.

Anyway, it should be an interesting spring market. At a time when sales and prices in many other parts of the country are starting to moderate, the market in Massachusetts kicking into high gear.