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The Goode and Farmer Report – Boston Q1 Update

Excellent news for Boston is that condominium sales rose in the first quarter when compared with last year. All Boston neighborhoods combined saw an 8% increase in sales from 572 last year to 616 this year. Increased sales meant increased dollar volume in most neighborhoods. South Boston leads the way  in percentage increase with a 32% increase from last year to $33M in sales volume. . All Boston neighborhoods combined saw a 5% increase in sales volume from $321M to $338M.

The average sales price for a condo in Back Bay decreased 4% to $1,263K but the number of units sold increased 6% to 72.

On Beacon Hill the average sales price for a condo decreased 10% to $860K but the number of condos sold increased wildly by 30% to 30. Interestingly total days on market decreased by 37% to 114 days versus 180 days last year.

In the South End the number of units sold increased by 21% to 78 condo properties, also a very strong but not surprising increase, given the demand we are seeing in the neighborhood.

As mentioned South Boston saw a 32% increase in sales volume representing 19% increase in sale units. The average sales price increased 8% to $410K from $379K last year. If this were a competition, South Boston takes first place with these numbers… and average days on market decreased by 30% which is yet another indication of the demand for South Boston properties.

In general with sales up everywhere, and inventory still very low, the supply and demand dynamic is firmly in place. We are in the key Spring selling season and inventory is needed to maintain the strong sales pace we have seen so far.

 

 

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The Goode and Farmer Report – Provincetown 1Q2012

The Provincetown market has been relatively stable year over year especially in the context of regional and national volatility being experienced in most markets.

First quarter figures for the Provincetown market are in and are great!  As in Boston the mild winter weather has kept buyers and sellers in the market and sales activity has been very strong. Keep in mind that the first quarter numbers in most markets in the northeast don’t show huge numbers so sampling is relatively small, but when compared with the first quarter last year  condo sales have increased by 40% to 28 properties and single family sales increased 71% from 7 to 12 properties in the first quarter. Not huge numbers but a positive indicator of interest and activity in Provincetown real estate

The average selling price of those condos sold was $405K, up 29% from last years average of $314K. On average it took 262 days to sell these properties, exactly what it took last year. The lowest selling price was $141K and the highest was $829K which was a beautiful 1754 square foot 2 bedroom, 2 bath penthouse in the East End on Commercial Street. (pic to left)

 

 

 

The average selling price of single family homes increased 6% to $807K from $762K     in 2011. Single family  home sales almost doubled from 7 to 12 sales in the first quarter. The lowest selling price was $212,500 for a sweet little  fixer upper home at 217 Bradford Street, and the highest selling price was $1.8M for a fabulous 4 bedroom waterfront home in the far East End on Winston Ave. (pic to left) There were no multi family properties sold in the first quarter.

 

 

There are currently 129 condominiums for sale with an average asking price of $447K. There are 55 single family homes for sale with an average asking price of $1,472K and 14 multi family homes for sale with an average asking price of $1,356K. These figures represent a terrific range of buying opportunities. Inventory is at a fairly balanced level and not necessarily weighted toward a buyers market or sellers market.

As the Outer Cape and Provincetown readies itself for the spring onslaught, meant in a very positive way… we will keep you posted week to week as to real estate activity of interest in Provincetown and on the Outer Cape.

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The Goode and Farmer Report March 2012

I will be posting regular market reports for Provincetown and Boston on my blog. Here is the first Goode and Farmer Report for year end 2011 with an update for March 2012.

 

 

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Real Estate This Week. Buyers Jump In!

The first full week of March. Continued low inventory and strong demand has created a dynamic where inventory is selling very quickly, many with multiple offers. Pending home sales increased  last month by 44% from last February as per the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. We usually start seeing an increase of market activity in early March culminating in May but this early activity is similar to what we see in a very busy mid spring market. Crazy for the first week in March.

Open houses on the last two Sundays were literally mobbed with 25 – 40 visitors at every open house. Very rarely have we seen 20 parties waiting to get into an open house on Sunday yet this scene was repeated in almost every neighborhood this past weekend.

While new proprieties are coming on the market they are selling just as quickly . The South End has 21% less condominiums available for sale than at the same time last year. Back Bay has 12% less.  Beacon Hill has 41% less. South Boston has 31% less condos for sale then at this time last year.

 

Our office put 11 properties under agreement in the last 10 days with a volume of $11M, and listed just 10. This is happening all over the city and does not allow for any appreciable and normal build up of inventory heading into the key spring Market. Those properties that went under agreement this weekend were 524 Massachusetts Ave #3, 94 Waltham St # 6 and 343 Commonwealth Ave.

 

There will be several new properties listed this week that were mentioned “around the table” in my sales meeting yesterday. This activity looks promising and hopefully will begin to build some listing momentum. All are very attractive, well priced properties with prices from $499K and up. Will they stick around long? I will let you know next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Boston Up 1.4% From Low

The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index released this week shows that Boston real estate prices are up 1.4% from  our low in September 2005. Most parts of the country seemed to bottom out in the summer of 2009 and from there began a slow recovery. Many markets have now fallen below that 2009 “bottom” too, but not Boston.  The Case Shiller composite of cities index shows prices decreasing 1.8% since that composite “bottom” in 2009. Hmm…so that really wasn’t the bottom in many markets.

As we fortunate folks in Boston know, we fared much better than most. Atlanta has declined another 17.2% from its low in July 2007. Las Vegas has declined another 19.3% from its ow in August 2006. On the other end of the spectrum San Francisco has increased 8.7% since its low in in May 2006.

Here is some interesting context as we try to make sense of all this analysis and what it means  to us in our  specific neighborhoods. At 2005 year end, which was near Boston’s historic low, the average sales price for a condo in the South End was $527K. At year end 2011 the average sales price of a condo was $656K, an increase of 14.6%. At 2005 year end the average price of a Back Bay condo was $1,038K.  At year end in 2011 it was $1,045K, a .07% increase.

As you can imagine the 1.4% increase in prices from the low in Boston in 2005 represents an average of all neighborhoods.  This composite average price increase is a result of the incredible variety of prices, inventory type, location, condition, and of course supply dynamics in Boston, and drives home the huge variety of buying and selling opportunities that exists today.

 

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Sold At The First Open House!

I have posted at length about the lack of good inventory in all downtown neighborhoods but specifically in the South End,  of the frequencey of multiple offers, and the general need for inventory to keep the positive market momentum going.

This newly marketed  property offered for sale at $1,250K by listing agent Jamie Curtis went under agreement from the open house on Sunday. It is a beautifully designed parlor and street level duplex on Shawmut Avenue with great outdoor space.  There were 30+ folks at the open house.  Yes, it was a gorgeous weekend, which helped with the open house attendance…again no snow and bright sunshine, but the quality, condition and location of this property drove this sale.

                                                                                                                                                                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So far this selling season, as well priced inventory comes on the market it sells immediately, so inventory doesn’t have a chance to build up. There are still only 99 condos for sale in the South End, an 18% decrease from last year at this time. 38 condos went under agreement in the past month in the South End with an average list price of $721K.

Everyone assumes that there will be a slow build up of inventory as we move into March.  It always happens. We shall see..and I will keep you posted.

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Real Estate This Week. Two Words. Multiple offers!

The first full week of February. Still no snow! Still no inventory.

Once again the story around the table at our business meeting was the 92 condos on the market in the South End.  A 22% decrease from last year at the same time. As I have said before, historically inventory is usually at its lowest level in mid winter, but this is  a new low.  In the $400K price range in the South End there are 15 properties for sale, only  1.75 months supply!

Many of our under agreements were products of  multiple offers. Properties that are priced well are selling quickly. Properties that have been on the market for a while are getting a second looks and selling. This is the view from the street.

The real estate outlook is running parallel to the bigger economic picture.  There is some momentum to the market, but it needs inventory to  fuel a strong spring selling season. The general economic picture is looking a bit more positive too.  A few more months of decent employment numbers and we just might be on a roll.

So far this week  (it is Thursday) 6 under agreements have come in. Three in the South End, one in South Boston, one in Concord and one in the Leather District, with list prices from $459K to $1,285K.  Agents are busy with buyers and sellers, and with temps in the high 40’s and low 50’s this weekend, we should see some great activity. I will give you an update next week.

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Provincetown Market Report

Bill Farmer will be a regular contributor to my blog posting about everything real estate in Provincetown. Bill has recently moved full time to Provincetown after dividing his time between Boston and Provincetown for the last several years. He has joined Bob O’Malley at Beachfront Realty. Bob is a real estate “institution” in Provincetown selling real estate at Beachfront Realty for the last 27 years.

 

Stable yet dynamic, with a wide range of opportunities. The 2011 Provincetown market report compares Cape Cod MLS sales data from 2010 to 2011 and shows all these characteristics.

The Provincetown market is relatively stable year over year.  The median sales price for condos in 2011 was the same as 2010, $360K. Unit sales were down only 8% from 124 condos in 2010 ($49M volume) to 113 condos in 2011 ($42.5M). The average sale price for condos was down 5% from $395K to $376K.

Great news is that sales of single family homes increased 27% from 21 sales in 2010 ($25M volume) to 31 sales in 2011 ($23.4M volume). Sales of multi-family homes increased 87% from 8 ($5.7M volume) to 15 ($10.5M volume) !  What can we read into these crazy percentage increases? That demand remains very strong for property in our little fishing village.

The diversity of inventory and the opportunity it represents is incredible. The lowest price condo sold was $91K and the highest price was $926K. The lowest price single family sold was $278K while the highest price was $2.9M. These figures represent opportunities for everyone. All these figures speak to stability, consistency, and strength in the real estate market in Provincetown.

Current inventory is solid with buying opportunities in every price range. There are 63 single family homes on the market priced from $222K to $5,995M. There are 124 condominiums on the market priced from $125K to $1.795M and there are 12 multi-family properties on the market priced from $549K to $2.285M. I will keep you posted regularly on sales of interest and when new inventory comes on the market.

Bill Farmer 617-823-2444/[email protected].

 

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2012 Housing Outlook. Compare And Contrast

In its latest economic outlook, NAR released its forecast figures for 2012. In attempting to bring it all right back home to what it means to us, I will compare and contrast these national figures with those here at home.

I have used MLSPIN data including all Boston neighborhoods for this post. MLSPIN groups all Boston neighborhoods together from South Boston to Back Bay to Dorchester and the Waterfront. This  broad data representation compares more effectively with broad national and regional data, in other words apples to apples, vs a more micro comparison with core downtown neighborhoods, which I will do in future posts.

NAR projects that new-home sales fell 5.9 percent in 2011 to 303,000, but will rise 16.2 percent in 2012 to 352,000 and jump a whopping 53.4 percent in 2013 to 540,000. National new home sales figures have less to do with our local market in that they represent such a small portion of it, but national and regional new home sales figures do drive attitudes and consumer confidence in general.

Existing-home sales, which we will use as the figure better relating  to our marketplace, fell 3.7 percent in 2010 from 2009 to 4.18 million units, according to NAR’s rebenchmarked figures. In 2011, final sales figures are expected to rise 1.7 percent to 4.25 million. In 2012, NAR predicts sales will jump 4.7 percent to 4.45 million with a further 5.2 percent increase to 4.68 million in 2013. The total number of condominiums sold in Boston in 2011 was 3,519, a 5% decrease from 3,713 sold in 2010.  The consensus varies for unit sales increases projected for 2012 but an allover 5% increase in units while not a consensus figure seems realistic to me relative to NAR’s 4.7% projected increase.

This year’s median price for new-home sales was an estimated $222,800, a slight 0.8 percent rise from 2010. NAR expects the median will rise 1.9 percent to $227,000 in 2012 followed by a projected 3.3 percent increase to $234,500 in 2013.

NAR expects the median price for existing homes to drop 4.4 in 2011 to $165,200. Nevertheless, NAR predicts prices will subsequently rise 2 percent in 2012 to $168,500 and another 2 percent in 2013 to $171,800. Median price for condos sold in Boston in 2011 was $380,000, a 3% increase over $369,000 in 2010. The average sale price in Boston for condominiums in 2011 was $535,000 a 3% increase from $520,000 in 2010.

For the first time, NAR forecasts rent inflation, predicting rents have risen 2 percent from 2010 this year and will rise 3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in 2012 and 2013. We will hear more on this from Briggs Johnson my rental contributor in future posts.

 

 

 

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Inventory Scarce in The New Year

The buzz this past week in the market and in the office was of the extremely low inventory level of property for sale and in turn how this is effecting buyer engagement in the New Year. In stark contrast though there was lots of  buyer activity this past weekend. Plenty of buyers were out at open houses, showings were plentiful for what inventory there is and from all reports buyers were excited and and motivated. The challenge for agents and buyers alike is to keep engaged in the process as we wait for the inventory level to increase.

 

MLSPIN shows 94 condos on the market for sale in the South End on January 13. Last year at this time there were 102. In comparison, there were 133 condos for sale in January 2010 and 134 condos for sale in January 2009  in the South End.

For context the historically highest level of inventory we have seen in the South End was 268 condos for sale in May 2009, the height of the Spring selling season, and the historically lowest level of inventory is now. Today’s inventory level is approximately 1/3rd the inventory of May 2009. Unbelievable!

What has created this low inventory level? In the last 30 days we saw 16 properties expire out of MLSPIN. 32 went under agreement and in the same 30 day period 35 sold. This sustained level of activity created a 46% decrease in inventory in the last 90 days! From 173 condos for sale in mid October to 94 today. Currently there is just 2.3 months supply of inventory in the South End with similar conditions in other neighborhoods. There is 4.6 months of available inventory in the Back Bay, 3.2 months in Beacon Hill, and 3.3 months in both Charlestown and South Boston. A normal market, at least nationally,  balanced between a buyers and sellers market, is when between 6-8 months supply of inventory for sale exists.

This low inventory can usually be explained by the regularly lower inventory levels that are seen at the beginning of the year, and that is surely part of the answer, but I think there is more to it. There are many sellers who just aren’t putting their properties on the market because they see a new normal for price appreciation. On the other hand for those sellers who can see the opportunity in this rather unique historical perfect storm with lack of inventory and high demand for reasonably priced properties, there has been no better time in the last several years then now to market a property for sale. There is less inventory thus less competition, and demand is exaggerated by this lack of inventory. Interest rates are at an all time low too!

I am not playing the role of realtor cheerleader here, I am just relaying the facts. Although I may be an optimist I am a pragmatic optimist. Facts are facts and they all point to a market situation which is just begging for inventory.  I will keep you posted week by week as we see how the Spring Market of 2012 evolves.  It is sure to be interesting.