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First Annual Decline For Existing Home Sales In Over 2 Years

Interesting INMAN post with a national perspective mirroring the issues we are seeing locally in both our primary and second home market.

Existing-home sales post first annual decline in more than 2 years

Higher mortgage rates, constrained inventories and tight credit slowed pace of sales in November.

The uptick in construction will help elevate the consistent inventory shortages we are seeing, and the lessening of negative equity will help as Zillow said that by 2014 U.S. homes will have recovered 44 percent of the total value they lost from 2007 to 2011.

Teke Wiggin Staff Writer, INMAN

Higher mortgage rates, constrained inventories and tight credit slowed the pace of existing-home sales for the third month in a row in November, producing the first annual decline in sales in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today.

Existing-home sales dropped 4.3 percent from October to November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9 million, and were down 1.2 percent from a year ago, marking the first time in 29 months that sales were below year-ago levels.

“There is a pent-up demand for both rental and owner-occupied housing as household formation will inevitably burst out, but the bottleneck is in limited housing supply, due to the slow recovery in new-home construction,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a statement.

Rents are rising at the fastest pace in five years, Yun said, and annual home prices are rising at the highest rate in eight years. The spike in mortgage rates that occurred in late spring of this year has hampered home sales over the last few months, Yun and others say.

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announced Wednesday that the Fed will finally begin to reduce its $85 billion-a-month purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities in January. The news did not immediately drive up mortgage rates, but a Fed pullback is still expected to nudge them up further.

If interest rates rise, that could further crimp existing-home sales. Market indicators suggest they are likely to decrease for at least another month. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index — a forward-looking indicator of sales — dropped for the fifth straight month in October. Purchase loan applications recently hit a one-year low.

Yun recently predicted that sales of existing homes will remain flat in 2014 due to headwinds including declining affordability, limited inventory and tight mortgage lending standards.

Despite declining home sales, the outlook for the housing recovery is by no means bleak. Other market barometers point towards improvement. Single-family housing starts jumped to their highest level in well over five years in November, increasing 20.8 percent month over month and 26 percent year over year, the U.S. Census Bureau reported.

The uptick in construction could alleviate an inventory shortage that many analysts say has constrained demand, perhaps boding well for home sales in the long term. Meanwhile, sales of new single-family homes skyrocketed in October, ending a three-month slump that began in July and providing evidence that elevated mortgage rates have not seriously hobbled the housing recovery, research firm Capital Economics said.

While the number of existing homes for sale at the end of November slipped 0.9 percent to 2.09 million, the amount of time it would take for those homes to clear at the current sales pace increased to 5.1 months, up from 4.9 months in October and 4.8 months a year ago, NAR reported.

The median price of an existing single-family home slid 0.6 percent from October to November, to $196,300, but was up 9.4 percent from a year ago. Elevated home prices have begun to chip away at buying power, analysts including Yun say.

But the price appreciation has also freed millions from the shackles of negative equity, making it possible for them to sell their homes without having to resort to a short sale. Zillow said that by 2014 U.S. homes will have recovered 44 percent of the total value they lost from 2007 to 2011.

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US Economy On Best Footing Since 2007

Interesting year in review article from Lou Barnes at INMAN.

US economy is on best footing since 2007 — maybe even 1998

Lou Barnes INMAN Contributor

As with all New Year look-aheads in this space, begin with Peter Drucker: “Nobody can predict the future. Stick with a firm grasp of the present.”

Thus a focus on where we are, and things to watch, not wild swings at the blue sky.

Then note that we focus on real estate, investors and owner-occupants, mortgages and credit. The stock market does affect the economy and interest rates from time to time, but its wanderings defy grasp, firm or otherwise.

Changing my mind is a painful process. An original hypothesis may have grown obsolete, but a new one can double the chance of error. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy is on a better footing and facing lighter headwinds than any time since 2007, and maybe since 1998.

On the turn of the century we labored in the goo of a blown stock bubble, and then splattered credit and housing bubbles all over our faces. The bulk of those messes is past. The most durable and stiff breeze against us, still: Since circa 1990 global competition has capped U.S. wages.

The table set, here follows the watch list:

Incomes

Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.”

Above all else, watch incomes, especially wages in the bottom two-thirds of the workforce. Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.

Inflation

Until incomes grow, a ramping of inflation is impossible. That was your dad’s — or granddad’s — problem.

The Fed

So long as incomes and inflation behave, the Fed can and will continue extreme stimulus. It has to pull back from QE and will, even if the economy slows.

Credit

Next to incomes the most important thing to watch. We cannot accelerate, or even get off Fed life support without it. My very smart friend, Paul Kasriel, has detected an acceleration in bank credit, one strong enough to offset the gradual end of QE. I can’t find it. I will look, early and often.

Regulation

Ow and ouch. Most folks have noticed the difficulty the administration has had with “Obamacare.” These are the same officials who have presided over implementation of Dodd-Frank. The nation has felt the chaos of “Obamacare” for two months. The same people have been rearranging the financial world for four years. It’s amazing that we make any loans at all. At banks the combined effects of new capital requirements and the Volcker Rule are incalculable, but none lead to more credit.

Mortgages

Under the heading “Everybody Gets Lucky,” the White House has at last succeeded in replacing the Fannie-Freddie regulator. The White House’s intentions (trying fitfully for three years): Find somebody who would make life easier on underwater households, specifically by forgiving loan balances, a very bad idea. Now they’ve got their guy, Mel Watt, but the foreclosure tide has receded to scattered puddles. However, he may be just the man to lift the dead hand choking mortgage credit. At the top of the we’ll-see list.

Housing

Will not lead a cyclical recovery. Not. See “incomes,” above. Also far too many households damaged by the Great Recession. Good jobs replaced by poor ones, savings exhausted, credit damaged. Hey, Mel Watt! Want to do something useful for foreclosed families and the nation? Shorten the punitive lock-out intervals for new mortgages. Housing will over time repair itself the old-fashioned way: As rents rise, a new generation will grasp the big benefit of homeownership: The monthly payment stays put, and the mortgage balance falls over time for the persistent and disciplined.

Wild cards

The whole friggin’ outside world! Which is today a lot bigger relative to us than it used to be. One major nation is in genuine recovery: the United Kingdom. Europe is a wreck with no structural political progress at all, financial and social stresses rising. Japan’s risks are internal, but we’d all get wet in the tsunami following implosion. China is an all-time black box. Makes us look well-governed. Perverse benefits: Trouble over there might help here, just as the U.K. looks safer for business than the Continent.

Rates

Oh, that. Mortgages will rise into the fives on the slope of GDP. Or not. :-)

 

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Sellers No Longer Sitting So Pretty?

It is smart to pay attention to what the national market prognosticators are thinking and then digesting the information relative to our market. We need to pay attention to the NAR too. But when Lawrence Yun of NAR says, “…sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers…” we need to be a bit suspect. This doesn’t sound like a savvy sound bite from the leader of NAR, and it is not the case in our markets.  Whatever happened to the natural dynamic of the supply and demand curve Lawrence?

Substantial price jumps are unlikely

Brena Swanson of Housing Wire

As more inventory hits the housing market and buyers rebel against rising home prices, the real estate market is likely to shift from seller dominance to one that is more counterbalanced by buyer reluctance to acquire homes deemed too expensive.

The tighter inventory conditions of this recent spring and summer are going away as the spring months of next year start to approach, analysts say. Right now, builders are trying to make up for a lack of inventory with new homes,  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, claimed.

According to the latest Home Price Index report fromCoreLogic, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by only 0.2% in October when compared to September.

“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10% of their respective historical price peaks,” Fleming said.

The report comes with both good and bad news. It is good news certainly for the owners and home sellers who are getting the appreciation and housing equity increases, in addition to helping the economy in terms of consumer spending, Yun explained.

However, the report is not as positive for homebuyers. “There are still in my view a lot of potential homebuyers getting blocked out from buying due to rising home prices,” Yun said.

He added, “It is a clear signal that sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers. More housing inventory is coming into the market from new home construction, but it is still a sluggish pace.”

If prices increase, homebuyers may choose to step out of the market if sellers do not adjust their list prices.

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 12.5% annually in October, marking the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices.

“In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

“The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates,” Nallathambi added.

Heading into 2014, sellers are still in fairly good shape with prices edging up, but they don’t have that much further to rise, CoreLogic suggests.

 

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As Prices Rise, Housing Bears See Red

Scott seems to know what real estate brokers feel like when we get push back for advocating around positive real estate news – and he makes some good points about the nature of our Boston Metro real estate market relative to the nation as a whole.

 As prices rise, housing bears see red

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  Boston.com Boston Real Estate

Maybe reading comprehension just isn’t what it used to be.

Not sure what it is, but every time this blog delves into rising home prices, an increasingly problematic aspect of life in the Boston area, some of our more vocal housing bears on this blog automatically cry foul.

In fact, they see nothing less than a real estate industry conspiracy intent on revving up the housing market!

Not that home prices need any help right now, but the idea is pretty absurd.

A case in point is the reaction on the comment board of this blog to Thursday’s post, “Hot fall market shatters records – and raises concerns.”

Here’s my argument, I’ve made it for years now, and, frankly, I don’t think it’s all that hard to grasp.

Housing prices are on a relentless, decades-long upward march inside I-495, increasingly pricing out ever greater numbers of working and middle class families.

Yes, things cooled a bit during the real estate downturn and Great Recession, but the price declines locally weren’t anything like what they saw out in Las Vegas or in Miami.

Is that because we are just so incredibly precious and special here?

No, increasingly restrictive zoning practices and NIMBY mindsets have put the home builders in a straightjacket, making it all but impossible for developers to truly meet demand for new housing.

Hence anemic levels of building going back more than two decades now and increasingly scarce listings.

Couple that with a local economy that is good at spinning off high-paying jobs in biotech and high-tech, but not much else, and you have a mismatch between rising demand and severely constrained supply.

Does that mean home prices will just keep going up forever? Of course not.

But all real estate is local, with each market driven by its own, peculiar dynamics.

Frankly, I am more worried about the increasingly number of buyers priced out of this market than the idea that we will someday see some sort of Las Vegas-style price implosion.

In fact, a steep plunge in home prices actually would be a good thing here and might truly make housing more affordable here. But you actually have to have lots of new homes getting built for that to happen, as happened in Las Vegas, Phoenix and other Sunbelt markets where the housing crash hit the hardest.

A little overbuilding might do us a world of good here in Greater Boston, but given current trends and attitudes, that’s not going to happen anytime soon.

 

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Homes Selling Faster, Confounding Experts

Recent post from Scott confirming what we are seeing on the ground. While low inventory is beginning to effect the volume of sales, the increase in the velocity of sales is surprising.

Homes selling faster, confounding experts

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis Boston.com Real Estate

So much for all the doom and gloom talk of a looming real estate slowdown.

Economists for the various real estate websites and brokerages out there have been talking up a storm about how the Fed, rising interest rates and the troubles in Washington were adding up to big trouble for home sales and prices.

Yet instead of a slowdown, we are seeing, if anything, acceleration, with homes in Greater Boston selling like hot cakes, according to a new Zillow survey.

Homes within the I-495 beltway that sold in September were on the market about 99 days before finding a buyer.

That’s down from an average of 107 days on market last year, or 7 percent faster, to be exact.

But sellers are making out even better in Boston and the western and northern suburbs of Middlesex County.

In both Boston in this big stretch of suburban towns, homes found buyers on average after just 77 days. The biggest drop came in Middlesex County, where days on market fell by nearly a quarter, from 101 last year, Zillow reports.

Meanwhile, the shortage of homes for sale doesn’t show any signs of improving anytime soon, with construction of new homes and condos still dragging along at anemic levels.

Homes are also selling faster in other markets across the country as well, with a dramatic boost in the speed with which sellers are to land a purchase and sales agreement.

Days on market nationally have fallen to 86, down a whole month from September 2012, when it took an average of 116 days for a house to sell.

Still, while Boston is beating the national average, we have nothing on San Francisco.

In the Bay Area, homes on average stay on the market just 48 days. Now that’s fast!

 

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Housing Recovery Still On Track…NYT

Excellent article with the national perspective.

By  New York Times
The housing market, one of the main drivers of the economic recovery, continues to gain strength despite the drag of rising mortgage rates and other economic headwinds, but some analysts are worried that it may slow in the months ahead.

For now, though, builders are building, sellers are selling and mortgage lenders are less nervous about extending credit to buyers.

The heady price increases in the first half of the year slowed a bit in July, according to data released on Tuesday.

But in the face of pent-up demand and emboldened consumers, home values were still heading upward at a healthy pace, rising 12.4 percent from July 2012 to July 2013, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case/Shiller home price index, which tracks sales in 20 cities.

A separate index of mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed an 8.8 percent gain in prices over the same time period.

Two national homebuilders, Lennar and KB Home, reported significant revenue growth and profits in the third quarter. Lennar said its third-quarter earnings rose 39 percent over the third quarter of last year, and KB said its profit had increased sevenfold.

“We still have a lot of young people that are going to start moving out and forming households and we’re going to have to find housing for them,” said Patrick Newport, the chief United States economist for IHS Global Insight. “There are shortages of homes just about everywhere.”

Higher home prices help the economy not just by strengthening the construction and real estate industries, but by making homeowners feel wealthier and more likely to spend.

While the number of Americans who lost the equity in their homes in the housing crash set records, rebounding prices have helped nudge more and more households back above water. According to CoreLogic, 2.5 million households regained equity in their homes in the second quarter.

Mr. Newport said the full effects of higher mortgage rates had probably not shown up in the numbers yet.

Rates increased from about 3.4 percent on 30-year fixed-rate loans in January to about 4.4 percent in July, according to a survey by Freddie Mac, and many loans were written at even higher rates this summer. But they remain well below typical rates in recent decades, and mortgage borrowing costs have already eased a bit from their recent peak now that the Federal Reserve opted last week not to begin a wind-down of stimulus measures.

Rising rates may not torpedo the housing market recovery, but they have made refinancing much less appealing.

The number of mortgage applications for purchases has climbed by 7 percent over the last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but refinance requests have fallen by 70 percent since early May.

As a result, banks have laid off thousands of workers in their mortgage units. Citigroup laid off 1,000 workers from its mortgage business, it said on Monday, following Wells Fargo and Bank of America, which have both done layoffs in recent months.

Refinancing also gave households more spending power as it lowered monthly payments.

Analysts offered a cornucopia of reasons for the continuing strength of the housing market: people rushing to buy before prices and interest rates increased further, a gradual relaxation of lending standards, an uptick in inventory, a smaller share of foreclosures in the sales stream and large-scale buying by investors looking to put houses on the rental market.

Still, some analysts questioned whether fundamental factors like job and wage growth would sustain the market and restore first-time buyers to the market. Others warned of a lurking shadow inventory.

“While recent results have been considerably better than those seen earlier in the cycle, and also better than we had anticipated, we have not given up on the argument that a large supply overhang of existing homes (factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,” Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist for MFR, wrote in a note to investors.

Once the backlog of demand is absorbed, continued strength will depend heavily on consumer confidence. That’s where politics, including a looming battle over federal spending and the debt ceiling, could stall improvement.

“The real test will come over the next few months, given the sharp drop in mortgage demand and the potential for a rollover in consumers’ confidence as Congress does its worst,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, reported that Americans’ confidence in the economy fell slightly in September from August, as many became less optimistic about hiring and pay increases over the next six months. The September reading dropped to 79.7, down from 81.8 the previous month, but remained only slightly below June’s reading of 82.1, the highest in five and a half years.

Year-over-year prices were up in all 20 cities tracked by Case/Shiller, but the gains varied widely, from 3.5 percent in New York and 3.9 percent in Cleveland on the low end to a frothy 24.8 percent in San Francisco and 27.5 percent in Las Vegas.

The month-to-month increase in the Case/Shiller index slowed to 0.6 percent, after gains of 1.7 percent in April, 0.9 percent in May and 0.9 percent in June.

Asked if the slowdown in growth was alarming, Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who helped develop the home price index, said no. “I’m not worried,” he said in an interview with CNBC. “I think that would be a good thing.”

His greater worry, he said, was “more about a bubble — in some cities, it’s looking bubbly now.”

Still, Mr. Shiller said, even the bubbliest markets were still well below their peak.

Other analysts raised the same point. Prices in San Francisco are still only at 2004 levels, cautioned Steve Blitz, chief economist for ITG Investment Research. “For those who bought and still hold homes in 2005, ’06 and ’07, they may still be in a negative equity position, depending on the terms of their mortgage,” Mr. Blitz wrote. “Don’t let those double-digit year-over-year percentage gains bias opinion to believe all is all right.”

 

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Boston Inventory…Empty!

Curbed Boston and Bates by the Numbers post below.

Inventory in the Boston Condo Market Continues to Straddle “E’

Tuesday, October 1, 2013, by Brenda Phan
Here’s the latest installment of Bates By the Numbers, a weekly feature by Boston real estate agent David Bates that drills down into the Hub’s housing market to uncover those trends you would not otherwise see. And check out his new ebook, Context: Nine Key Condo Markets.

Running-on-Empty.jpg

Compared to a year ago, inventory in the nine neighborhoods is down around 14%, but one bedroom condominiums are the least available, down 30%. In a city of singletons that’s not good news. It may be a wise idea to wave the one-bedroom driver into the pit area for a fill up.

Currently, there are only 82 one bedrooms available for sale in the nine markets, yet in September, (and not all the numbers are in) MLS has recorded that 90 one-bedroom condominiums went into “pending” status, or in other words found buyers. Just two years ago to the day, there were 283 one-bedrooms available, about 3.5 times more.

That’s less than a one month supply. As a reminder we need a three month supply to have anything resembling a neutral market. So guess, what, we don’t have anything approaching a neutral market.

I went to an open house for a Brookline 1BR, priced at $315,000. and the brokers could have done better charging admission in lieu of a commission. There had to be 30 people to view that property, off season, and an open house time of 2:30pm.

I guess the bump of interest rates has had little effect.

In September, the median price of a 1BR, is over $400,000. That’s up from $361,000 for September 2012.

Of course the pickings for a one bedroom can get even slimmer.

You want to super-size that one bedroom, something over 700 square feet. Well, less than ½ the 1BR available have it, (as well down to 39 from 74 a year ago) and the median price jumps to $535,000. But at least you have twice the opportunity of finding one with garage parking, as only 20 available condos have it.

Want it at a reasonable price? Then now is definitely not the time to be looking at Back Bay one bedrooms, there median price for on market is$649,000. Hey, I could buy a parking space and sleep in it for that kind of money.

Where is one bedroom inventory the lowest? America’s new hip neighborhood, Somerville, where there are only two available. Last month in Somerville, five went “pending”, meaning there is less than ½ month supply.

inventory.jpg

 

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The Chevron In The South End

The Chevron. Our favorite new South End building written up in Curbed Boston.

Here’s the South End’s Chevron

Wednesday, September 25, 2013, by Tom Acitelli

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[All photos for Curbed Boston by David Bates]

A year ago this week, 518 Tremont Street, one of the last free-standing retail buildings in the South End (home of the Olde Dutch Cottage Candy & Antiques store), was demolished to make way for a collection ofParisian-style condos known as The Chevron on Tremont. Up top is said Chevron a year on, close to completion.

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Above is a sliver of one of the building’s 2,500-square-foot, floor-through flats, which have retailed for around $3,100,000 and which have all gone at least under agreement, if not sold completely. Below is a view from the Chevron, courtesy of real estate agent David Bates, who has detailed the Chevron’s sales pace.

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Update: Actually, the third-floor spread is back on the market for$3,500,000.

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Boston Prices Outpace Nation

Greater Boston prices outpace nation

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  September 23, 2013

The already overpriced Boston area is even more expensive now, with home values rising more than 10 percent in August to more than $341,000, Zillow reports this morning.

That’s nearly double the pace nationally, with home values across the country (Zillow’s index includes both prices and assessed values) having risen by a comparatively modest 6 percent.

In fact, this is a reversal of the trend we have been seeing over the past year as the real estate rebound kicked into high gear.

Greater Boston, which in most surveys includes everything inside the 495 beltway and some of the bedroom communities of Southern New Hampshire, saw a much less dramatic decline in home values than many other parts of the country after the bubble burst.

Hence, when home prices began to rise again, the Boston area posted respectable, but not spectacular, single-digit gains, compared to hard hit markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, which saw prices suddenly soar by 20 percent or more.

Of course, when you’ve hit rock bottom and have been given up for dead, like Vegas and Phoenix and other overbuilt and over-speculated Sunbelt cities, there’s only one way to go, and that’s up.

Context is crucial.

So why is Greater Boston now outpacing the nation when it comes to rising home values?

A relatively robust economy driven by high-paying industries like biotech and tech are combining with decades of anemic residential construction in a perfect storm of surging demand and dwindling supply.

It may be good news for potential sellers, but for buyers, it’s only getting tougher out there as the fall market continues to heat up.

 

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More Sticker Shock In Boston

 

A recent post by Scott regarding prices and inventory levels in Boston and suburbs.

Coming this fall: More sticker shock

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  September 9, 2013 08:34 AM

Welcome to fall, traditionally the hottest time for home sales, barring spring.

And brace yourself. After a small breather in August as the market slowed down a bit during vacation time, the fall is likely to bring another round of crazy price increases and bidding wars for scarce homes.

Here’s a Globe piece from an old friend of mine, Jay Fitzgerald, which offers a preview of the fall market.

More than 60 towns and urban neighborhoods have already blown past previous price peaks set in 2005 at the height of the housing bubble, the story notes, citing stats from The Warren Group.

And who’s leading the price charge? Well, if you haven’t already guessed it, it is the usual suspects, “desirable Boston neighborhoods and close-in cities and towns such as Arlington, Brookline, Cambridge, and Newton,” Fitzgerald writes.

Here’s a quote from a frustrated buyer interviewed in the piece.

“I always expected high prices,” said Rich Garfield, 31, a software engineer now renting in Somerville’s Davis Square, “but our agent told us right off the bat that everything we looked at would go higher than the asking price, and that’s exactly what has happened.”

If you have lived in Greater Boston for a decade or two, you might be wondering whether the crazy cycle of skyrocketing home prices is starting all over again.

If so, your right, and here’s why.

Here’s Fitzgerald’s piece again:

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a forecasting firm, said longer-term factors are also at work. Massachusetts has a decades-old history of dramatic run-ups in housing prices precisely because not enough new housing is built to meet demand, said Zandi, who has closely followed the New England economy.

A combination of scarce land and sometimes contentious permitting at local levels has inhibited home building in the state, he said. “It’s ultimately a supply problem.”