Categories
analytics general info

2012 Housing Outlook. Compare And Contrast

In its latest economic outlook, NAR released its forecast figures for 2012. In attempting to bring it all right back home to what it means to us, I will compare and contrast these national figures with those here at home.

I have used MLSPIN data including all Boston neighborhoods for this post. MLSPIN groups all Boston neighborhoods together from South Boston to Back Bay to Dorchester and the Waterfront. This  broad data representation compares more effectively with broad national and regional data, in other words apples to apples, vs a more micro comparison with core downtown neighborhoods, which I will do in future posts.

NAR projects that new-home sales fell 5.9 percent in 2011 to 303,000, but will rise 16.2 percent in 2012 to 352,000 and jump a whopping 53.4 percent in 2013 to 540,000. National new home sales figures have less to do with our local market in that they represent such a small portion of it, but national and regional new home sales figures do drive attitudes and consumer confidence in general.

Existing-home sales, which we will use as the figure better relating  to our marketplace, fell 3.7 percent in 2010 from 2009 to 4.18 million units, according to NAR’s rebenchmarked figures. In 2011, final sales figures are expected to rise 1.7 percent to 4.25 million. In 2012, NAR predicts sales will jump 4.7 percent to 4.45 million with a further 5.2 percent increase to 4.68 million in 2013. The total number of condominiums sold in Boston in 2011 was 3,519, a 5% decrease from 3,713 sold in 2010.  The consensus varies for unit sales increases projected for 2012 but an allover 5% increase in units while not a consensus figure seems realistic to me relative to NAR’s 4.7% projected increase.

This year’s median price for new-home sales was an estimated $222,800, a slight 0.8 percent rise from 2010. NAR expects the median will rise 1.9 percent to $227,000 in 2012 followed by a projected 3.3 percent increase to $234,500 in 2013.

NAR expects the median price for existing homes to drop 4.4 in 2011 to $165,200. Nevertheless, NAR predicts prices will subsequently rise 2 percent in 2012 to $168,500 and another 2 percent in 2013 to $171,800. Median price for condos sold in Boston in 2011 was $380,000, a 3% increase over $369,000 in 2010. The average sale price in Boston for condominiums in 2011 was $535,000 a 3% increase from $520,000 in 2010.

For the first time, NAR forecasts rent inflation, predicting rents have risen 2 percent from 2010 this year and will rise 3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in 2012 and 2013. We will hear more on this from Briggs Johnson my rental contributor in future posts.

 

 

 

Categories
analytics trends

Inventory Scarce in The New Year

The buzz this past week in the market and in the office was of the extremely low inventory level of property for sale and in turn how this is effecting buyer engagement in the New Year. In stark contrast though there was lots of  buyer activity this past weekend. Plenty of buyers were out at open houses, showings were plentiful for what inventory there is and from all reports buyers were excited and and motivated. The challenge for agents and buyers alike is to keep engaged in the process as we wait for the inventory level to increase.

 

MLSPIN shows 94 condos on the market for sale in the South End on January 13. Last year at this time there were 102. In comparison, there were 133 condos for sale in January 2010 and 134 condos for sale in January 2009  in the South End.

For context the historically highest level of inventory we have seen in the South End was 268 condos for sale in May 2009, the height of the Spring selling season, and the historically lowest level of inventory is now. Today’s inventory level is approximately 1/3rd the inventory of May 2009. Unbelievable!

What has created this low inventory level? In the last 30 days we saw 16 properties expire out of MLSPIN. 32 went under agreement and in the same 30 day period 35 sold. This sustained level of activity created a 46% decrease in inventory in the last 90 days! From 173 condos for sale in mid October to 94 today. Currently there is just 2.3 months supply of inventory in the South End with similar conditions in other neighborhoods. There is 4.6 months of available inventory in the Back Bay, 3.2 months in Beacon Hill, and 3.3 months in both Charlestown and South Boston. A normal market, at least nationally,  balanced between a buyers and sellers market, is when between 6-8 months supply of inventory for sale exists.

This low inventory can usually be explained by the regularly lower inventory levels that are seen at the beginning of the year, and that is surely part of the answer, but I think there is more to it. There are many sellers who just aren’t putting their properties on the market because they see a new normal for price appreciation. On the other hand for those sellers who can see the opportunity in this rather unique historical perfect storm with lack of inventory and high demand for reasonably priced properties, there has been no better time in the last several years then now to market a property for sale. There is less inventory thus less competition, and demand is exaggerated by this lack of inventory. Interest rates are at an all time low too!

I am not playing the role of realtor cheerleader here, I am just relaying the facts. Although I may be an optimist I am a pragmatic optimist. Facts are facts and they all point to a market situation which is just begging for inventory.  I will keep you posted week by week as we see how the Spring Market of 2012 evolves.  It is sure to be interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

Categories
analytics

Pending Home Sales Jump

I love going into the New Year with all the positives we can get. A monthly index that tracks pending sales of U.S. existing homes rose to its highest level in 19 months in November, according to a report  released by the National Association of Realtors.  Pending sales figures are a very good indication of what consumer attitudes and confidence are going into the New Year as they directly correspond to buyers attitudes and confidence.

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on purchase contracts signed but not yet closed, jumped 7.3 percent from an upwardly revised 93.3 in October and 5.9 percent compared to November 2010, to 100.1. That’s the highest index score since April 2010, just before the deadline for a federal home-buyer tax credit program, when the index was at 111.5, NAR said. “Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,” Yun said. “November is doing reasonably well in comparison with the past year. The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales, which are the important final economic impact figures, should continue to improve in the months ahead,” Yun added.

What we are seeing statewide through December bears these NAR figures out. A more recent Massachusetts Association of Realtors report shows that the number of condos put under agreement in December in Massachusetts was up 13% to 1,179 units vs 1,046 in December 2010.  The number of single family homes put under agreement in December was up 11.7% to 3,227 units vs 2,888 units in December 2010.  Pending sales in my Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage South End office are up 20% December over December. As with the NAR and MAR figures these positive figures are a reliable sign of increased sales occurring in January and February.  Time will tell.

Categories
analytics general info trends

Solid Year End For Downtown Boston

I love getting my hands on “hot off the presses” year-end sales results from MLSPIN, the real estate industry’s data platform.  I have written in prior posts that the South End and the $1M+ markets in particular have fared well in 2011.  Well, the good new continues as we look at initial year-end data.

Boston’s core downtown neighborhoods showed strength and resiliency in 2011.  As a group of neighborhoods including Back Bay, Midtown, South End, Bay Village, Beacon Hill, Charlestown, Fenway, Seaport, Waterfront and the North End, the median condo sales price in 2011 was $545K,  up 1% from 2010. The average condo sales price $769K, was down only 2% year over year. Total sales units were 1727 vs 1707 an increase of 1%.  This is an important number as most of the year we had been up against the inflated sales numbers caused by the tax credit through spring 2010. Total core downtown neighborhood sales volume was even with 2010 at $1,329M. (That’s One Billion and three hundred twenty-nine thousand dollars in condo sales.)

When you look at all of Boston neighborhood’s*, including the core downtown neighborhoods and others from Allston/Brighton, Chinatown, South Boston, Dorchester, Roslindale, to W. Roxbury, the average median sale price for condos was $380K which was up 3%. The average sales price was $535K, up 3%.

These preliminary figures reflect  a market that remains consistently strong, and resilient. We are extremely fortunate to be living in Boston, and experiencing a relatively strong market where opportunity exists whether you are buying or selling. Boston is a great place to be in 2012.

*MLSPIN groups all these neighborhoods under Boston when doing a general “Boston” search.

Categories
analytics trends

Ft. Lauderdale Ranks #5 on Realtor.coms Top 10 Early Turnaround Report.

The post below is by Steve Roberge, my South Florida contributor writing about market conditions in Ft. Lauderdale. Interesting information, and counter to what you may think. Steve is a top producing agent with Coldwell Banker in Ft Lauderdale. He was with my office in Boston before moving to Florida and has been very active in real estate in Boston, Ft Lauderdale and Provincetown. Enjoy.  Steve will be a regular contributor to the blog. Steve can be reached at [email protected].

In addition to Fort Lauderdale, six other Florida markets (Miami, Orlando, Fort Myers/Cape Coral, Sarasota and Lakeland/Winter Haven) dominate the Top 10 list, based on 3rd quarter 2011 data. All of these markets have experienced significant reduction in inventory, median price appreciation and the length of time a property sits on market for sale. Also, Florida has a lower unemployment rate and the warm climate makes it an ideal location for vacation/second home. With a decline in the US dollar, Florida has seen a steady flow of foreign buyers taking advantage of both their currency purchase power and the depressed real estate market, scooping up properties at much lower prices.

The Fort Lauderdale Real Estate market inventory has reduced by as much as 38% and real estate prices are trending upward after falling as much as 50% since 2005. 

In summary, the real estate market seems to be in a recovery mode.  Buyers who are on the fence about buying or convinced prices will continue to fall, may want to reconsider.  Interest rates are at historic lows and now be the perfect time to jump in. Besides… the weather is great!!

Categories
trends

T’was the Week Before Christmas And All Through The Real Estate Office…

What a week last week was in the Boston South End office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Agents were uncharacteristically busy for the week before Christmas. Showing levels increased on many properties that have languished on the market for months. Six under agreements came in in the last 3 days. It’s as if folks realized the year is about to end, and oooops! Realized they forgot to buy a condo!

A number of agents were rushing past my office frantically scheduling multiple last-minute showings on their properties. “You want to see the property at 6PM Friday evening, the night before Christmas Eve? Of course we can schedule that!” I heard negotiations between buyers who had walked away from negotiations a week ago and sellers who were willing to revive those negotiations, finally come to an agreement. We have had several closings that had been postponed finally close and others will close this coming week.

What does this year end flurry of activity mean? It might be simply that the weather outside was 50 and sunny. It might be some year-end pent up demand or it could be just the natural urgency in negotiations that typically occur at the end of every year. Whatever it is, it is welcome. Year-end sales figures will ultimately give us the answers.

As the year winds down conversations around the office and in our last business meeting invariably end up being about what business will look like in 2012? Interestingly, with all the challenges we have faced in 2011 – from financing problems, to a shortage of inventory, to tough negotiations – agents are very positive and upbeat going into the New Year. I think that for agents who have learned to work successfully through the challenges in this “new real estate normal,” they have come out the other side with a renewed confidence in their ability to succeed and with a more positive attitude for the year ahead. This is surely a good sign for all of us for 2012.

Have a wonderful holiday week.

 

Categories
style

Scale And Proportion

Michael Ferzoco is the principle of Eleven Interiors, the interior design firm he founded in 2005. Michael will be a regular contributor to my blog adding a fabulous design component to the conversation. His first post distinguishes the differences between scale and proportion in design… fascinating. Enjoy. You can reach Michael at [email protected].

Let’ take a minute to clarify a couple of terms used in daily communication in the design world – scale and proportion. These terms are frequently used interchangeably because their meanings can be confusing, but they are quite different.

In the simplest and fewest words, scale refers to overall size. Proportion refers to relative size. But that doesn’t really help very much, does it? How about this instead?

The scale of an object or a space is relative to the idea of that object or space, literally the human perception of what is the norm or the ideal for that object or space. For example, the scale of a sofa is either small or large when compared to other sofas. So when you walk into a friend’s 1,000 s.f. apartment and he has one of those overstuffed, lounging sectional sofas, you’re correct in thinking to yourself  “Wow the scale of that sofa is HUGE!” And of course you’d be thinking of that sofa relative to other sofas that you’re familiar with…and you’d graciously keep your thoughts to yourself!

On the other hand, proportion refers to the relative size and scale of the various elements in a space. The issue here is the relationship between objects, or parts, to a whole. So your thoughts about the aforementioned sectional sofa would now be “wow the scale of that sofa is HUGE and the proportion for this room (basically the amount of space it requires relative to other furnishings in the room) is all wrong”.

Our most universal standard of measurement is the human body. Think about it. We judge the appropriateness of size of objects by that measure. For example, a chair in the form of a hand is quite an attention getter because of the distortion of expected proportion of a human hand, and therefore it becomes the center of attention in the space.

Architectural spaces that are intended to impress us are usually scaled to a size that dwarfs the human viewer. Public spaces, such as churches or government buildings, corporate spaces and museums are often very large in scale relative to other buildings. These structures impress us with their grandeur and size, creating a sense of power and invincibility. In contrast, the proportions of a private home are usually more in scale with human measure, and as a result the home appears friendlier, more comfortable, less intimidating.

Not so confusing after all.

 

 

Categories
general info

Bill Farmer Joins Beachfront Realty in Provincetown

With over 25 years of experience, Bill Farmer has made the move to Provincetown where he will continue helping buyers and sellers with all their outer Cape Cod and Boston real estate needs.

Bob O’Malley, broker/owner of Beachfront Realty says, “I’m so excited to have Bill on board. I really appreciate his years of professionalism, honesty and integrity. Please stop by, say hello and help us welcome Bill to Beachfront Realty.”

“I’m thrilled to be selling real estate in Provincetown after assisting buyers and sellers in Boston and Minneapolis for so many years,” adds Bill Farmer. Bill can be reached at 617.823.2444 or by email at [email protected].

 

Categories
analytics trends

Stable and Consistent! – The Over $1M South End Condominium Market

The over $1,000,000 high-end market gets all the attention. We all love talking about these fantastic properties! And interestingly enough, this market for all its glamour, has remained very stable and solid over the last two years in downtown Boston and specifically in the South End.

Year-to-date – as of 12.15.11 – 60 condominiums sold for over $1M in the South End vs. 64 last year. Broken down, 44 properties selling from $1M to $1.5M closed this year vs. 48 last year. Of those properties sold for $1.5M+, 16 were sold this year – the same number as last year.

Average price per square foot in this category is approximately $720 this year and last year it was approximately $702 per square foot. Very stable. The median price for properties sold for over $1M this year is around $1,575K vs. $1,525K last year. Again, very stable.

The average days on market (DOM) for properties above $1M was 140 days this year vs. 165 days last year. DOM is an excellent marker of market demand. The fact that DOM went down 15% this year means these properties are selling a bit faster than last year. This is a great sign of market strength.

The strong and consistent performance in the luxury market in the South End is excellent news for the market in general. These sales get all the glory, but they support the entire market as it instills confidence citywide. For those looking to buy or sell in any price point in the South End these encouraging figures should add an additional level of comfort for both buyers and sellers.

What is the prognosis for the above $1M market for 2012? I will post an update in the New Year with finalized year-end figures along with my thoughts on what I think the market might look like next year. I will also post the opinions of others talking about where they think the luxury market will take us in 2012. Stay tuned.

NOTE
All sales data are from MLSPIN
All price per square foot data are from LINK

Categories
architecture trends

Provincetown Construction Everywhere You Look

There’s an awful lot of construction activity in Provincetown these days. East End, West End, downtown. Seems like you even have to watch for construction vehicle traffic everywhere you are – and it’s December!

Harborfront Landing at 333R Commercial Street is a newly completed luxury beachfront condominium development in the center of town. Currently, the new project consists of seven 1BR and 2BR homes from 465 to 798 square feet and listed for $476K to $998K – parking included.

 

 

 

 

Province Landing is a $14.5M, 50-unit rental community offering a high-quality, green community for year-round residents with moderate incomes. Located on an undeveloped parcel along Shankpainter Road, this project is a great new addition to the western most entrance to Provincetown.

 

 

 

Construction at Herring Cove Village Phase 2 is well under way with six new units targeted for summer 2012 completion. Located in the far West End very close to the moors, this great mix of 2BR and 3BR+ condominiums are priced from $749K to $1.399M.

 

 

 

 

A new 9-lot subdivision on the famed Murchison House property at 2 Commercial Street in the far West End is quickly moving ahead. Called Pilgrim’s Landing, the projects sits directly across from the Provincetown Inn with great water views. Phase 1 is already under construction and includes the renovation of the existing gatehouse (pictured), the grounds and the Murchison House designed by Walter Gropius.