Tag: Boston condo sales

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Goode and Farmer Report – Boston April 2013

 Lack of Inventory – Still the Challenge

The Big Number is 45%. Combined, all Boston neighborhoods saw a 45% decrease in inventory of condos for sale as of March 30 compared last year at this time.  This decrease in inventory didn’t seem to effect sales as the average sale price went up 10% to $611K vs. $556K and the number of condo sales increased 3% to 644 units from 624. The median sales price increased 4% to $416K from $400K in 2012. On first glance this real estate market seems very healthy but a continuing decrease in inventory levels could create a problem going forward.

The Back Bay saw a 1% increase in condo sales to 74 units from 73 in 2012 while the average price of a condo sold increased by 12% to $1.489M. The number of condos available for sale dropped 50% from 183 last year to only 92 today.

The South End saw an 8% increase in the number of condo sales to 85 condos sold year to date compared to 79 last year. The average price of a condo sold increased 18% to $763K compared with $646K last year. The inventory of condos for sale decreased 57% from a very low 130 last year to a terrifying 56 today.

South Boston saw a 4% decrease in the number of condo sold to 80 in compared with 83 in 2012. The average sales price of a condo increased by 8% to $444K compared with $410K in 2011. The inventory of condos for sale dropped 49% from 154 in 2012 to 79 condos for sale today.

This market is so resilient and so desirable that declining inventory levels have not negatively affected the steady increase in sales and prices, although these increases have slowed somewhat. Spring will tell just how resilient the market is to very low inventory.

 

Boston Q1

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Big Leap In Spring Sales

South End Heli ShotMarket resilience to low invent0ry levels is surprising, but as Scott reports sales continue to increase.

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  April 9, 2013 06:44 AM

Will dwindling listings derail the real estate recovery?

At least for now, the answer is no.

The number of pending sales across the state jumped 4.6 percent in March compared to the same time last year, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reports.

In fact, the 4,308 homes put under agreement was the best showing since March 2005, at the height of the real estate bubble, when buyers laid claim to 4,404 homes.

That’s just a percentage or two difference.

Pending condo sales also took a big jump in March, surging 9.4 percent to 1,888.

Given the number of homes and condos for sale is down roughly a quarter from this time in 2012, buyers are clearly biting the bullet and taking the plunge anyway.

There’s certainly anecdotal evidence of homes that couldn’t sell last year being put on the market and getting offers now.

Buyers are looking past flaws that might have been deal breakers before and likely paying more as well.

And there’s some hard evidence as well.

Home prices in Greater Boston moved up 10.6 percent in February, slightly above the national average, the Boston Business Journal notes in this post on the latest CoreLogic report.

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NAR Report For February- Prices And Inventory All Post Gains

February was a strong month for real estate. The Cape was effected by 4 weekend snow storms but Boston buyers scoffed at the weather and added momentum to sales in the New Year.

Existing-home sales, prices — and inventory — all post gains

NAR: Tight inventory still a drag on recovery

BY INMAN NEWS, THURSDAY, MARCH 21, 2013.

Inman News®

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=117398371" target="_blank" rel=Housing trends image via Shutterstock.” width=”225″ />

Existing-home sales and prices posted strong year-over-year gains in February, while inventory remained tight but eased slightly, according to a monthly report released today by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Existing homes, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million during February, up 0.8 percent from January and 10.2 percent from a year ago. That’s the fastest pace of sales since November 2009 when the first-time homebuyer tax credit boosted purchases.

The national median existing-home price remained level at $173,600 from January but was up 11.6 percent from a year ago, continuing a 12-month string of consecutive year-over-year price increases not seen since May 2006.

Existing-home inventory rose 9.6 percent from January to 1.94 million units in February but remained tight, at 19.2 percent below the inventory level from a year ago.

With the month-over-month growth, the months’ supply of inventory — the amount of time it would take to sell all homes now on the market at the current rate of sales — rose to 4.7 months, up from 4.2 months in January.

Some analysts view a six-month supply of homes as a more even balance of buyer and seller demand — anything less than that indicates a seller’s market.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that overall economy is resulting in increased demand, sales and prices. Despite rising prices, however, low mortgage rates are still attracting homebuyers, but tight inventory, he said, will continue to temper the housing turnaround.

“The only headwinds (to a housing a recovery) are limited housing inventory, which varies greatly around the country, and credit conditions that remain too restrictive,” Yun said in a statement.


Source: Calculated Risk blog

Existing homes were on the market for a median of 74 days in February — up from 71 days in January and 24 percent below February 2012’s mark of 97 days.

First-time buyers accounted for 30 percent of purchases, unchanged from January.

Distressed homes accounted for 25 percent of all existing-home sales in February — down from 34 percent in February 2012 but up from January’s mark of 23 percent.

Foreclosures made up 15 percent of February’s existing-home sales and sold for an average of 18 percent below market value, while short sales, which made up 10 percent of February’s sales, sold for 15 percent below market value.

All-cash deals accounted for 32 percent of February’s sales, up from 28 percent in January. Investors accounted for 22 percent of existing-home sales in February.

Existing-home sales, February 2013

Seasonally adjusted annual rate 4.98 million
% change from February 2012 +10.2%
% change from January 2013 +0.8%
National median price $173,600
% change from February 2012 +11.6%
Unsold inventory (months’ supply) 4.7 months
Share of all-cash buyers 32%
Share of investor buyers 22%
Share of first-time buyers 30%
Share of distressed sales 25%

Source: National Association of Realtors

All regions saw year-over-year increases in existing-home sales with the South leading the way with a 14.9 percent jump in sales from a year ago to an annual rate of 2.01 million in February on a median sale price of $150,500.

In the Midwest, sales rose 12.9 percent from a year ago to an annual rate of 1.14 million with a median sale price of $129,900.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast were up 8.6 percent in February, year-over-year, to an annual pace of 630,000 units with a median sale price of $238,800.

The West saw February sales rise 1.7 percent from February 2012 to an annual rate of 1.20 million with extremely tight inventory and multiple bidding raising the median price, year-over-year, 22.7 percent to $237,700.

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Buying Cheaper Than Renting

Another great post from Tara Steele at Agent Genius. Buying is still cheaper then renting in most markets. An interesting national story.

by  in Housing News –   

 

trulia Buying now cheaper than renting in most housing markets

Rents up, home prices up, one still reigns

According to the Trulia Winter 2013 Rent vs. Buy Report, buying a home in the top 100 major metros is cheaper than renting, even in light of home prices rising. The company analyzes homes for sale and rent on the site from December 1, 2012 to February 28, 2013 factoring in transaction costs, opportunity costs, and taxes to uncover that although rents and home prices are both rising, home ownership is still more affordable. Trulia says buying a home is 44 percent cheaper than renting nationwide, down just slightly from 46 percent in 2012.

“Although buying a home is still cheaper than renting, the gap is closing,” said Dr. Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “In 2013, home prices should rise faster than rents, and mortgage rates are likely to rise in the next year as the economy improves. By next year, buying could be more expensive than renting in some housing markets, even for people with the best credit.”

Housing affordability and mortgage rates

Asking home prices rose 7.0 percent year over year in February, which outpaced rents which rose 3.2 percent in the same period. Trulia reports that low mortgage rates (averaging 3.5 percent at the end of February) have kept homeownership costs from rising, and kept affordability high.

“Even in each of the 100 largest metros, buying is more affordable than renting with the range differing significantly from being 70 percent cheaper to buy than rent in Detroit, but only 19 percent cheaper in San Francisco,” Trulia reports.

The challenge that remains for housing

While a positive portrait of homeownership emerging, the stark reality is that many potential home buyers still won’t qualify for a mortgage under current lending conditions, and those that do qualify may not enjoy the lowest of rates unless their credit is near perfect.

That said, Trulia notes that “getting a higher rate does not mean homeownership is completely out of reach. Even with a 5.5 percent mortgage rate, buying a home is still cheaper than renting in almost every market. Only in San Francisco does homeownership become slightly more expensive than renting at the higher rate.”

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WSJ Calls A Sellers Market

Below is Nick Timiraos’s article in the Wall Street Journal. We are certainly seeing different degrees of this dynamic in our local markets.

Housing: It’s Becoming a Seller’s Market

By Nick Timiraos
National Association of Realtors

The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday what home buyers in many parts of the United States have known for months: it’s becoming a seller’s market.

The number of homes listed for sale in January fell by 4.9%, leaving 1.74 million properties on the market. That’s the lowest since December of 1999, when there were 1.71 million homes on the market. By contrast, there were 2.91 million homes on the market two years ago at this time.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, home sales rose by just 0.4% in January, to an annual rate of 4.92 million units. Still, that’s up from 9.1% one year ago.

The upshot is that there’s a growing pool of buyers chasing a shrinking supply of homes. If the trend holds, prices will keep going up. At the current pace of sales, it would take just 4.2 months to sell the current supply of homes available for sale, down from a 6.2 months’ supply one year ago.

While inventories typically increase in the spring, the Realtors’ group has expressed growing concerns that sales volumes are being held back by the lack of choice. This is good news for homeowners who have watched home prices drop over the last six years, but it’s bad news for buyers—and for anyone that makes their living selling real estate.

Inventory declines have been the most dramatic in California, Arizona, and other markets that witnessed some of the largest home price declines. Those cities have large numbers of underwater borrowers—people who owe more than their homes are worth—while many others may have equity but aren’t willing to sell because prices have fallen so far.

Investors have also been aggressive in buying up properties that are selling for less than their replacement cost.

National Association of Realtors

Home sales could rise to 5.2 million units this year, an increase of nearly 12% from last year, according to economists atGoldman Sachs GS +2.13%. They base their forecast on household formation and demographics, which both suggest rising demand for housing in the coming years, and affordability measures such as mortgage rates and home prices.

But the economists note that there’s a considerable amount of uncertainty that could make those targets hard to hit, particularly if there’s nothing for would-be buyers to purchase.

Follow Nick @NickTimiraos

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Sales Edge Up In ‘Sellers Market’

USA TODAY article indicating national trend of sales being affected by low inventory.  Local implications will be explored in later posts.

Ray Goldbacher, USA TODAY10:32a.m. EST February 21, 2013

Sales of previously owned homes edged up in January, held back by a shortage of homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Single-family home sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.34 million in January vs. 4.33 million in December, and 8.5% above the 4 million-unit level in January 2012.

The median single-family home price was $174,100 in January, up 12.6% from a year ago.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said tight inventory is a problem and, as a result, “We’ve transitioned into a seller’s market in much of the country.”

“Buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, while seller traffic is holding steady,” he said. “In fact, buyer traffic is 40% above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory to improve sales more strongly.”

Homes available for sale at the end of January fell 4.9% to 1.74 million previously owned homes, a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.5 months in December, and the lowest supply since April 2005, when it was also 4.2 months, the NAR said.

The inventory is 25.3% below a year ago, when there was a 6.2-month supply. The number of homes available for sale is at the lowest level since December 1999, when there were 1.71 million homes on the market, the Realtors said.

“We expect a seasonal rise of inventory this spring, but it may be insufficient to avoid more frequent incidences of multiple bidding and faster-than-normal price growth,” Yun said.

Sales rose in every region but the West.

Overall, sales of single-family homes, condos and townhouses were up 0.4% from December, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million. That was up from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in December, and 9.1% above the 4.51 million-unit pace in January 2012.

Distressed homes — foreclosures and short sales — accounted for 23% of January sales, down from 24% in December and 35% in January 2012.

The median time on market for all homes was 71 days in January, down from 73 days in December and 28.3% below 99 days in January 2012.

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What’ s Keeping Sellers From Selling?

As we are all assessing the outlook for the spring market, Scott at Boston.com has some good points, and while this post is based on national polls, we are hearing the same thing in our marketplaces.  Sellers wonder if they do list and sell there propertry, will there be anything decent to buy! An important question as we move into the spring selling season.

 

 

 

Really, why shouldn’t sellers wait for higher prices?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

That’s the question many potential home sellers are asking as they watch prices climb again in an increasingly tight market.

Would-be home sellers, as they consider taking the plunge, are no longer primarily concerned with the state of the economy in deciding whether to list their house now or wait. Instead, the top concern now is whether by selling now, they will pass up even bigger gains down the line if they should choose not to hold out for a few more months, Redfin reports in a new survey on seller attitudes.

It’s not that they are not interested in selling – just under half the more than 1,800 homeowners polled by Redfin said they were planning to sell, up from 45 percent in the fourth quarter. (Just to be clear, this was not a broad sampling, but rather a tally of homeowners who visited Redfin’s website.)

But 34 percent  of homeowners surveyed told Redfin that missing out on future gains was their biggest concern with diving in now, up from 30 percent at year end. Moreover, potential sellers are also growing increasingly bullish in their take on the market as well, with 81 percent now predicting more increases in home prices over the next year, up from three-quarters last fall.

Needless to say, with warmups beginning for the annual spring market, this is not a good sign. In fact, we could see some sellers sit out the spring market altogether, waiting to see if prices continue to rise. After that, we could see new inventory start to trickle on, but it seems unlikely at this point we are going to see an avalanche of new listings in the next few months.

That’s my bold prediction – feel free to jump on the comment board with your own take.

It’s certainly not what frustrated buyers, yearning for more listings to choose from, want to hear, but the market is what it is right now.

Of course, there are other factors at work here. Any broker will tell you another big concern of potential home sellers, especially here in the Boston, is the fear they won’t be able to buy anything decent if they go ahead and sell what they have now.

Not unreasonable given the precipitous drop in home listings, which fell by more than 25 percent in Boston alone over the past year, helping push prices up 4.1 percent, according to the Department of Numbers.

So why shouldn’t sellers keep holding out for more? Until buyers and brokers come with a better argument – or really any counterargument at all – sellers are likely to keep on watching and waiting instead of listing.

 

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Tight Inventories Effect Growth Prospects.

The Inman News article below provides interesting national context to the extreme lack of inventory in our local markets.

NAR: Pending sales dip from November to December

BY INMAN NEWS

Inman News®

Tight listing inventories are likely to constrain growth in 2013 home sales, the National Association of Realtors said in releasing a report showing that pending sales dropped 4.3 percent from November to December.

Despite the month-to-month drop, existing homes under contract were up 6.9 percent from a year ago, making December the 20th month in a row to see an annual gain in pending sales.

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, which represents existing-home contracts signed but not yet closed, rose to 106.3 in November before slipping to 101.7 last month. In April 2010, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was still in place, the index hit 111.3, but soon dipped back down.

An index score of 100 is equal to the average level of sales contract activity in 2001, the first year examined by the trade group and a year in which home sales fell in what’s considered a normal range for the current U.S. population. Contracts signed in a month typically close one or two months later.

Although NAR is projecting that home sales will pick up by 9 percent in 2013, tight inventory, paired with near-record low new-home construction levels, is an obstacle to more rapid growth.

The month-to-month dip in the pending sales is not a “statistical fluke,” Yun said, but signals a loss of momentum in home sales. The momentum, however, is inventory-related, he said — demand is still high.

New homes, Yun said, are the solution to the inventory challenge. “True relief to the inventory has to come from new home construction.”

Regionally, the West, with extremely tight inventory, was the only region to see a decrease in pending home sales in December from a year ago with a 5.3 percent drop.

December 2012 year-over-year change in pending sales of existing homes index by region

Source: National Association of Realtors

The Midwest, South and Northeast had year-over-year index increases of 14.4 percent, 10.1 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, in December.

On a monthly basis, only Midwest’s index increased in December — 0.9 percent. The pending existing-home sales index fell in the West, Northeast and South from November to December 8.2 percent, 5.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, in December from November.

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Local Market Best Since ’06’

A great article below from The Boston Globe’s Jennifer McKim. 
  • The Boston Globe
  • By Jenifer B. McKim

The Massachusetts housing market made a comeback last year, with 46,887 single-family homes sold — the best showing since 2006!

Single-family home sales statewide rose by 18.4 percent in 2012 compared with 2011,according to Warren Group, a private company that tracks real estate. Prices also rose, with the median price, or midpoint price, climbing a modest 1.8 percent compared with 2011, to $290,000.The new data seem to confirm what housing specialists have been saying for months — that the Massachusetts and US housing markets have turned a corner. The state’s single-family housing market hit a price peak in 2005 — at $355,000 — before dropping about 20 percent by 2009, Warren Group said. Home values have fluctuated, but now appear to be strengthening steadily, especially in the Boston area.This year “is going to be the base the housing recovery is built on,’’ said Alex Coon, a Boston market manager for the online brokerage firm Redfin.The state’s condominium market also is improving, with sales rising more than 25 percent in 2012 compared with the previous year, marking the highest number of condo sales in Massachusetts since 2008,according to Warren Group. The median condo sale price rose $277,000 in 2012, up 2.6 percent from 2011.The annual data were given a boost by brisk activity in December. Single-family home sales jumped by 8 percent compared with December 2011. Median home values rose to $300,000, a 12.3 percent increase compared with the same time in 2011, according to Warren Group.Condo sales also increased by 5.4 percent in December, compared with December 2011. The median condo sale price increased to $275,000 last month, 8 percent higher than during the previous December.

“It is clear we have turned the corner and are gaining ground rapidly,’’ said Timothy M. Warren Jr., chief executive of Warren Group.

Greater Boston showed even better numbers in 2012, with the median price for singlefamily homes hitting $470,000, 6.8 higher than in 2011, the Greater Boston Association of Realtors said. The group includes communities largely within the Interstate 495 loop. Condo prices in that region rose to $380,000, a 10.3 percent increase compared with 2011.

But as more buyers compete for homes, the number of properties on the market continues to shrink.

The inventory of single-family homes fell by 28.1 percent at the end of December, compared with 2011, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, which also released data Thursday.

The number of condos for sale fell by 34.3 percent in December, compared with 2011, the association said.

John Ranco, senior associate at Hammond Residential Real Estate in Boston’s South End, said the lack of homes to sell is proving a challenge to the market’s recovery.

“We seem to have lots and lots of people looking for housing and very, very little to choose from,’’ he said. “It’s a little bit of a horse race to get properties into agreement right now.”

Christopher Doherty, president of the Northeast Association of Realtors, said he hopes more people start to realize now is a good time to put their homes on the market. “Buyers are out looking now, and every property that comes to the market is getting tremendous attention,” he said.

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$500K In Provincetown And The South End

Provincetown waterfront or the heart of  Boston’s South End. Two great condos priced at $500K (+-).  One in a waterfront complex in Provincetown and the other a new construction one bedroom/ one bath condo on Washington Street in the South End. Zero Worcester Square #F is being marketed at $822 per square foot, and 381 Commercial #9 is being marketed at $852 per square foot. An interesting comparison….and remember my caveat…descriptive copy has been taken directly from MLS.

 

Zero Worcester Square #F, $495K, ..1/1, 602 sf. Fabulous new construction one bedroom residence with private elevator access. This is a unique opportunity to live in an elegant contemporary space surrounded by a charming nineteenth-century view! This sun-filled corner home has walls of windows, a southwestern exposure looking over the Square, private balcony and hardwood floors throughout. The beautiful kitchen has three windows, gas cooking and is fully applianced. Located just steps from the best of the South End’s restaurants and shopping!

 

 

 381 Commercial St #9,  Bull Ring Wharf. $499K, 2/2, 586 sf . A charming home filled with Cape Cod charm provides the ultimate in beachfront living. Situated in the heart of Provincetown this newly renovated 2 bedroom condo has been updated with new custom tiled bathroom, new kitchen cabinets with granite countertops, new appliances and gleaming refinished wood floors throughout the living room and bedrooms. Quite simply this condo is the perfect Provincetown getaway or rental. There are 2 expansive common decks to enjoy sun bathing and beachcombing, all just steps from your door. Parking for one car, common laundry and extra storage for owners. Pets and weekly rentals allowed. Very strong rental history! Buyer to assume remaining sewer betterment.