Tag: Boston South End condo sales

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analytics general info

Signs Of Recovery Even With The Cliff!

A repost of Jennifer McKim’s article in the Boston Globe follows. It shows significant evidence that we are in a real estate recovery even in the broader Massachusetts market.  We have been experiencing The Recovery in downtown Boston and on the outer Cape for months now, but this broader evidence is very welcome news as we enter the NewYear.

The pullquote below from the article states what we are hearing all aross the country. Good news especially as we deal with the ramifications of the possible Fiscal Cliff.

“It feels like a housing market that has now switched into the mode of helping drive a recovery,

The Boston Globe/December 28, 2012/Jennifer McKim GLOBE STAff

  • Analysts say prices remained stable, while the number of single­family units sold rose steeply
  • A surge in home sales in November and strengthening property values are adding to a growing sentiment in the real estate industry that 2012 will mark when the housing market in Massachusetts officially began its recovery.

SOURCE: The Warren Group
JAMES ABUNDIS/GLOBE STAFF With the supply of available properties still thin, homes are selling quickly and prices are edging up, prompting real estate specialists to predict that the days of bargain prices for residences are likely to be over soon.

“This year marks the shift in housing,” said John Ranco of Hammond Residential Real Estate in South Boston. “Over the next couple of years we will start to see prices heat up a little bit.”

Last month, 4,539 single-family properties traded owners — the best November for sales since the market peak in 2005, the Warren Group, a Boston company that tracks local real estate, reported Thursday.

The number of single-family home sales through the first 11 months of 2012 exceeded that of all of last year, and the year will probably be the strongest since 2006.

Through the first 11 months of the year, home prices were about where they were for 2011 — at a median price of $288,000 — a trend that industry officials said represents a stabilized market.

In the more active market in Greater Boston, median prices were 1.1 percent above where they were in 2011, at $456,500 for single-family properties, according to the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. It’s been seven years since the housing market in Massachusetts first showed signs of slowing, and during the steepest period of the downturn values plunged 20 percent, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show. Prices have since rebounded modestly, though values have also bounced during the past three years.

But now, prices appear to be on the upswing — with Boston area home values up 1.6 percent in October, compared with the same month in 2011, according to Case-Shiller, which measures repeat sales and is largely considered the best marker of the housing industry.

“It is clear that the housing recovery is gaining strength,’’ said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

This good news comes despite uncertainty over the socalled fiscal cliff and possible changes in the mortgage interest deduction, which provides thousands of dollars in annual savings to many mortgage holders.

There are still many unknowns that could turn the market around.

However, Eric Belsky, managing director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, said he foresees a strong spring season, propelled by tight inventory and low mortgage rates. He also expects markets outside of Boston to strengthen.

“It feels like a housing market that has now switched into the mode of helping drive a recovery,” Belsky said.

Meanwhile, the condo market appears to be even stronger. The number of condos sold in November, 1,635, was 33 percent above the number a year earlier, according to the Warren Group. Year-to-date condo sales rose 27 percent, compared with a year earlier.

Prices are up, too. The median condo sales price was $275,000 in November, more than 7 percent higher than a year earlier.

Warren Group chief executive Timothy M. Warren Jr. said the condo market is thriving because young people and baby boomers are increasingly interested in living in the city, with all its amenities. “Urban living is gaining ground,” he said.

Both condos and single-family homes are selling faster this year, too. And so the supply of available properties is tightening: The number of single-family homes on the market last month was 25.9 percent fewer than in November 2011, with similar declines in the condo market.

Mary O’ Donaghue, president of the the Northeast Association of Realtors, said she expects that improving consumer confidence, low interest rates, and tight inventory will keep housing moving in the spring.

“We are entering a spring market with close to ideal conditions,” she said.

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analytics

Boston’s Fiscal (Listing) Cliff

Great post from Curbed Boston Blog!

Here is the latest installment of Bates By the Numbers, a weekly feature by broker David Bates that drills down into the Hub’s housing market to uncover those trends you would not otherwise see. This week, David looks at the effects of Boston’s absurdly low condo inventory on the city

Boston%20Inventory%20as%20of%2012-12.jpgMcDonald’s would never run out of hamburgers.

Amazon would never run out of books.

But could Greater Boston run out of reasonably priced condos?

Currently, the city’s on-market condominium inventory is scary low. It’s so low that if we were using actively marketed Boston condos as gas for our car, we might not make it to the closest station to fill up. A year ago, Boston had nearly twice as many condos on the market as it does today. Brookline had two-and-a-half times its current condo selection and South Boston was marketing more than three times the 46 condos currently being marketed. Put simply: Regardless of price, there are very few condos available to buy in Boston; and, when demand is high and supply is low, prices go up.

You might not realize how the pricing menu of Greater Boston condos has changed in just a year. A year ago (12/12/11), the median list price of an on-market condo in the South End was $575K. Today, the median is $749K. Which is more incredible: the $174K increase or the fact that 02118 now has a 90210 median list price?

In Greater Boston, rising median list prices are not relegated to the South End. Brookline’s median list price for on-market condos is $202K higher than it was a year ago, up from $538K to $740K. And a year ago in Back Bay, the median list price for on-market condos was a cool million—today it is a cool $1.47 million. That new median might get Robin Leach excited, but if you’re looking for modestly priced Boston condos to buy, it’s an indication you just might have a better chance of seeing the Jets win the Super Bowl this year.

When Boston housing prices spiraled out of control between 2001 and 2005, the Boston Foundation’s Housing Report Card stated that it contributed to 60,000 more people leaving the Hub than coming to it, many of them in the 20- to 34-year-old age demographic. FYI, back in 2005, when there was no marketing of condos after they had technically found buyers, the city had five times the amount of condos on the market as it does today and the median listing price of the on-market inventory was $390K. Today the median list price of Boston’s on-market available-to-purchase inventory is $483K, which provokes the request: Would the last hipster to leave the Hub please take the titanium spork with him?

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architecture general info

44th Annual South End House Tour

Get a Glimpse Inside the South End’s Coolest Homes on the South End House Tour

This year’s South End House Tour will take place on Saturday, Oct. 20.

by Sara Jacobi…South End Patch

It’s a little bit like the History Channel meets HGTV. Right in your backyard.

Get a peek into several of the South End’s historically notable or highly designed homes on the 44th annual South End House Tour, put on by the South End Historical Society.

The tour, to be held on Saturday, Oct. 20 from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., is a self-guided walk through six amazing South End homes starting at the Southwest Corridor and ending mid-way down Shawmut Avenue. Since the tour is at-your-own-pace and snakes around on a more than 1 mile path, the full tour can take anywhere from two to four hours. It starts at the Boston Center for the Arts.

South End Historical Society Executive Director Hope Shannon said the idea for the house tour began more than four decades ago as a way to showcase the creativity and history of the neighborhood.

“People were buying a lot of run down or abandoned buildings in the South End and restoring them,” she said. “The neighborhood was much different back then.”

Today, the tour seeks to showcase all sorts of notable homes, from the historical, to the “green,” to the homes with unique architecture or high design.

Special to the 2012 tour is a combination deal with the Ellis Memorial Antique Show, which will be held at the Cyclorama on the same day. A ticket to the house tour comes with a complimentary admission to the antiques show. This year’s tour will also feature a stop inside the New Hope Baptist Church, which will soon be turned into condo apartments.

Shannon said that besides serving as a significant fundraiser for the historical society, the house tour’s main goals are to continue bringing people into the South End and to showcase the neighborhood’s history and charm.

“The neighborhood has changed so much, and the homes have so much history,” she said. “We want to remind people of the long history and bring awareness for continued preservation. We want visitors to leave with positive memories of the people they meet and the businesses they patronize, and recognize the South End is an important place historically.”

Tickets are on sale now through Oct. 19 for $25, and can be purchased online at the Historical Society’s website or through several different realtors in the neighborhood. Tickets will also be on sale on the day-of for $30 each. A $50 ticket includes admission to a private party at an additional house. 

Related Topics: south end historical society and south end house tour

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analytics general info

Lack of Inventory In Boston Getting Serious

My good friend, excellent agent and blogger Briggs Johnson at Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage hits it squarely on the mark with this post which illustrates the decrease in inventory year over year and its potential effect on the market. I have posted it in its entirety below. Visit his blog. 

September 18, 2012 By 

“The Caravan Indicator”

There are several indicators and indexes that people follow to determine market conditions.  The indicator I am going to use that sparked this blog entry is  going to called the “Caravan Indicator”. What many people don’t know is that behind the scenes here at Coldwell Banker (downtown), every few weeks, we hire a bus to drive us all around town to check out new listings in Back Bay, Beacon Hill, South End, South Boston and the Seaport District etc. Its a great way for us to view new inventory and for us to be knowledgeable of the market in all price points. Today, is caravan day and it was cancelled due to lack of inventory…..Wait, What?! I can understand there being a cancelled caravan in late fall or August when everyone is on vacation, but not now, not September, not in the second week of the second strongest time of year to get new inventory. Really?

I was ready to bounce around the city and view some properties, but, since that wasn’t happening, I did some research to see how limited inventory really is. I went on MLS and looked up current inventory, the amount of listings currently under agreement and the amount of listings that have been sold in the past 2 months. The numbers don’t lie and I found them pretty shocking. Since I really only focus on the downtown neighborhoods. I used the 4 neighborhoods i do a lot of business in . Here are the Stats:

Neighborhood         # of Listings    # Under Agreement      # Sold in last 2 months

Back Bay                            104                                  57                                   124

South End                          78                                   57                                    110

Beacon Hill                        59                                  14                                      41

Seaport District               16                                  7                                        23

 

Last Year (2011)              # of Listings                          % Decrease from 2011

Back Bay                                213                                                           52%

South End                             183                                                           58%

Beacon Hill                            82                                                             28%

Seaport District                   37                                                             57%

 

The way I look at this information is that it is a great time to sell and list a property. There are a ton of buyers out there and they are in desperate need of decent inventory. On the flip side, If you are a buyer looking in these neighborhoods, be prepared to be frustrated and be ready to enter a multiple offer situation (if you are a serious buyer looking in a popular area). In the South End alone there have been 24 places go under agreement in the past 2 weeks.  If you are a buyer looking in the South End under $450k. there are only 9 places on the market and only 3 of them are north of Washington Street. If you are a buyer looking in the 800-1 million range in the Back Bay, there are only 11 listings on the market.  Six of those listings have been on the market for over 100 days, so quality is as compromised as quantity right now. If you are a Beacon Hill buyer looking from 600-900k there are only 3 listings on the market. 2 of those listings have been on the market for over 170 days. Brutal!!

I can understand that sellers are hesitant to list because there  isn’t much to move into if they sell and want to stay in downtown Boston. But if you are a possible seller looking to move out of state or to the “burbs” this could be an ideal time to make the jump.

I know all downtown agents are saying “list your property now” but hopefully some of this data, makes you think about the scenario with a different tone. Have hope and don’t be afraid to enter the market, just be informed and realistic.

Happy Hunting and Start Listing!!

 

 

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general info

Are Buyers Bummed Out In Boston?

Scott at Boston.com comes up withe some great posts and I have posted another one below. Scott talks about a Redfin survey that finds only 46% of buyers surveyed  think it is a good time for house hunting. This is apparent as well in all anecdotal information from the field specifically in downtown Boston. The issue remains lack of good available inventory and the impact that this will have in the “nascent real estate recovery. Jon

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  September 4, 2012 07:59 AM

So says Redfin in a troubling new survey of buyers in 19 major metro markets across the country, including Boston.

Fewer than half the buyers out there – 46 percent – actually believe it is a good time to be house hunting, according to the online brokerage firm.

That’s a big shift from the first quarter, when hopes for deals and bargains was much higher among buyers as the spring sales season approached. Back then, 56 percent said it was good time to buy, Redfin notes.

However, probably the most dramatic change is in buyers’ expectations of where home prices are headed. The number of buyers who believe home prices are headed up has nearly doubled, to 61 percent from 32 percent in the first quarter.

So what’s made home buyers so glum?

Well bidding wars haven’t helped, with seven out of 10 buyers reporting they had encountered multiple bids on at least one offer, according to Redfin.

In fact, 31 percent of those surveyed said they would back off if confronted with another bidding war, up from 28 percent this spring.

Of course, at the root of the problem is a falling supply of homes for sale, a phenomenon that has endangered the nascent real estate recovery both here in Greater Boston and across the country.

Fewer choices have meant more bidding wars, rising prices and increasingly grumpy buyers. (The Redfin survey is based on the responses of 829 buyers during the week of Aug. 16-22.)

And the stumbling economy – and all those storm clouds over Europe’s rickety banking system – hasn’t helped cheer buyers up either.

The percentage of buyers worried about the economy rose to 27 percent from 20
percent in the first quarter.

We’ll just have to wait and see what the fall selling season brings, I guess.

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analytics general info

More Evidence That Home Prices Have Hit Bottom.

Great article in the WSJ. Nick Timiraos does a great job in putting things in perspective.

By Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal

In each of the last three years, home prices have increased in the spring and summer, when more people are buying homes, before giving back all of those gains and then some in the fall and winter, when activity cools.

But it is beginning to look like that might not happen this year, absent a major stumble for the economy.

Home prices in July were up by 3.8% from one year ago, the largest year-over-year jump in six years. Moreover, prices have shot up by 9.6% from February, when they registered their lowest levels of the housing downturn, according to CoreLogic CLGX +0.40% data released Tuesday.

This adds evidence to the case that U.S. home prices may have hit bottom earlier this year. Even though prices will soften in the autumn, “we have a much better supply and demand dynamic” than in previous years, said Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic.

So when people say they believe home prices haven’t reached a bottom—that this year’s seasonal gains will be wiped away by January or February of next year—here’s the relevant question: Will home prices fall by 9.6% in the next six months?

Anything, of course, is possible. Home prices fell in the winter—what Mr. Fleming calls the “offseason”—in each of the last three years to record a new low. But they have not fallen by 9.6% in any six-month span since March 2009, which was when the U.S. economy was still in recession.

That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news: While the year-over-year comparisons look good right now, the economy—and workers’ wages—aren’t growing fast enough to justify this kind of increase on a sustained basis.

Instead, the snapback in home prices in the last six months is more an indication of how prices “over-shot” over the past year. Investors, sensing deals, began buying up homes. The most likely scenario for home prices over the next year is that they may rise, but not at the breakneck pace of the past few months (and they’ll fall on a relative basis in the coming months due to normal seasonal factors).

There are other serious headwinds. It’s still hard to get a mortgage, and many households have too much debt. Millions of homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. Millions more have enough equity to sell their house but not enough to make a down payment on their next house and pay a real-estate broker’s commission.

As we’ve written many times before, the strong rise in home prices this year owes as much to sharp declines in inventory as it does to demand-side improvement. Banks have been much slower to take back and list foreclosed properties, easing pressure on home prices but leaving a bloated “shadow inventory” of potential foreclosures.

These homes will weigh on markets for years, though there’s less evidence that they will be dumped on the market at once. While the shadow inventory may not lead to a big drop in prices that some have feared, it will probably keep a lid on future home-price gains.

Finally, lower mortgage rates have dramatically increased the purchasing power of today’s home buyers when compared to one year ago. Some real-estate executives are nervous that demand isn’t stronger given today’s low mortgage rates, and they’re worried about what will happen if rates rise.

The bottom line: Don’t be surprised if the all-time low in home prices is in the rearview mirror. But this doesn’t mean a full-on recovery is here, and there’s little evidence that the current pace of improvement can continue. For now, home prices appear to be bumping along a bottom.

Follow Nick @NickTimiraos

 

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analytics

Massachusetts July Home Sales Hit 7 Year High

Boston Business Journal by Lisa van der Pool, Broadcast/Social Media Editor

Date: Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 2:07pm EDT
Broadcast/Social Media Editor-Boston Business Journal

Massachusetts single-family home sales rose nearly 27 percent on a year-over-year basis in July, according to The Warren Group.

A total of 4,979 single-family homes were sold in the state in July, up from 3,922 during the same month last year, marking the highest level of sales volume in July since 2005.

Between Jan. 1 and July 31, 26,596 homes were sold in Massachusetts, a 24.8 percent increase over the same period in 2011.

“There are a lot of good signs pointing toward a real estate recovery,” said Cory S. Hopkins, editorial director of the Warren Group. “But we are comparing sales to a very depressed market last summer, so it’s important to step back and realign expectations.”

Condo sales also increased in July, rising 34 percent over the same month last year. A total of 1,994 condos were sold in July, up from 1,487 from July 2011, the Warren Group reported.

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analytics

Call It A Comeback?

Tara Steele is the News Director at AgentGenius, a terrific real estate blog, covering real estate news, technology news and everything in between. Below are excerpts of  one of her recent posts asking the questions:  Are lowering inventory levels good or bad for housing? Are reduced sales a good sign or not? Is housing recovering, or are these just signs of life? I have posted about the shrinking inventory levels and how this is pushing up demand and prices. It’s a great question to ask. While it is a positive development that inventory is being absorbed, especially foreclosures, the lack of good inventory which is required to to fuel a recovery is an issue.

Is it time to call it a comeback?

Housing has had some recent signs of health, causing a frenzy in traditional media outlets who are calling a comeback for housing, but is it too soon? When a coma patient who has been nearly beat to death opens one eye, no doctor would call the patient recovered, rather showing signs of hope for a potential recovery some day. As housing has been beaten to a pulp and opens one eye and two or three indicators show improvement, many are desperate to cling to hope that everything is recovered, but that just is not the case, and pushing that idea that everything has recovered is unhealthy for those looking for the recovery. Let’s just say that the moment anything backslides, the overly enthusiastic commentators and their following will feel slighted.

At AG, we are not calling it a comeback, in fact, you’ll see with the positive reports coming out of housing recently, we say as much in the first few lines, so that when good news is delivered, there is a huge “but” on the delivery.

Economist, Dr. Kolko weighs in

We have noted that while some economists are allowing themselves to get worked up by tiny signs of life, Dr. Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Trulia.com agrees with us that the good news should be taken as part of the whole picture, not independently as a sign of recovery.

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that home prices have risen, but inventory is tight, explaining the lowered sales numbers.

Dr. Kolko agreed that the sales data reflects the tightening inventory, as it fell 24.4 percent year-over-year, telling AGBeat that “Although sales increased year-over-year, they’re only 35% of the way back to normal. The June sales level of 4.37m is much closer to the worst of the recession (3.77m in Nov 2008) than to its long-term normal level (5.5m).”

“The shrinking supply of foreclosed homes drives the drop in inventory and sales,” added Dr. Kolko. “The share of distressed-home sales fell from 30% one year ago to 25% in June. Sales of homes priced under $100,000 in the West – which includes lots of distressed homes — fell 36% year-over-year.”

Low inventory levels: good or bad?

Dr. Kolko notes that while inventory feels tight when compared to recent years, “it’s actually only slightly below normal levels. ‘Normal’ inventory is 2.5m, which is roughly 5-6 months of supply when sales are at their normal rate of 5.5m. Now, inventory is 2.39m, which is very near ‘normal’ but way below the elevated level of the past few years.”

Many are enthusiastic about inventory levels, but who does it benefit, and does it hurt anyone? Dr. Kolko said, “Tight inventory is good for some and bad for others. Tight inventory hurts buyers, helps sellers, and hurts real estate agents and others in the industry who depend on sales for their income.”

“Tight inventory is a necessary step on the road to recovery,” said Dr. Kolko. “As prices start to rise, buyers get impatient but sellers want to hold off. Longer-term, rising prices will encourage new construction and lift homeowners above water, both of which will bring more homes onto the market and increase inventory. But inventory has to shrink first before it expands.”

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analytics general info

Low Inventory Pushing Prices Up In Boston?

Scott Van Voorhis  did a great post on declining inventory levels finally driving up prices in Boston.  I have excerpted the post below. The numbers are staggering in many of the markets shown.

Boston has landed near the top of a list of major metro markets across the country where low inventory appears to finally driving up home prices.

Boston comes in No. 11 on the report, having seen the number of homes on the market drop 37 percent over the past year, as of June 19, according to a new report by Movoto Real Estate. (Movoto is an national on-line brokerage whom I am certainly not endorsing but who did an interesting report). During the same period prices of homes on the market in the Hub have risen 11 percent to nearly $300,000.

Here’s an excerpt from Movoto’s report.

We are seeing a gradual increase in the prices of homes in areas that have been most affected by low inventory. This could be an indicator the housing market has finally pulled out of its slump. We’d like to think so.

Here are the two relevant sets of stats taken from the Movoto report. The first shows declining inventory levels in Boston and other major metro markets across country.

  • Las Vegas, down 66 percent
  • San Francisco, down 65 percent
  • Miami, down 62 percent
  • Fresno, down 52 percent
  • Oakland, down 50 percent
  • Long Beach, down 49 percent
  • Seattle, down 42 percent
  • Mesa, down 41 percent
  • Phoenix, down 41 percent
  • Portland, down 41 percent
  • Boston, down 37 percent

The second set of stats, also from Movoto, shows the rise in list prices in these same cities.

  • Las Vegas, up 52 percent
  • Phoenix, up 30 percent
  • Mesa, up 25 percent
  • Miami, up 23 percent
  • San Francisco, up 23 percent
  • Austin, up 22 percent
  • Oakland, up 17 percent
  • Seattle, up 14 percent
  • Fresno, up 13 percent
  • Long Beach, up 12 percent
  • Boston, up 11 percent

Combine more buyers with fewer sellers and prices start to go up.

That tried and true  economic law of supply and demand is always the reason why prices go up or down. As I say repeatedly… Empirical data does not lie.

 

 

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analytics

Amazing Year-To-Date Sales In Boston

Stunning figures. In all Boston neighborhoods combined, year-to-date as of May 31, the average selling price for condominiums is up 12% to $542K. The number of condo sales is up 19% to 1,443. Total dollar volume is up 20% to $782,000,000. The number of condos available for sale is down an amazing 65% from the same time last year, from 2,132  to 1,293 condos for sale today.

The story continues to be inventory, yet the number of sales in downtown Boston neighborhoods is up markedly or at least even with last year, except in Dorchester where the number of sales was down 17% and where inventory was down 36%.

2 Commonwealth Ave $1.43M

 

In Back Bay the number of condominium sales is up 27% to 166 sales against 131 last year. The average sales price is down 7% to $1,154K and inventory is down 34% to only 174 condos on the market as compared to 264 last year. The total dollar volume of condominium sales year to date in the Back Bay is $191M.

 

 

 

 

40 Worcester St, 1B/1B, $439K

 

In the most popular Boston neighborhood, the South End, the number of sales is up 25% to 186 against 149 last year. The average sales price for a condo year to date is equal to last year at $678K. The unbelievable story in the South End is that the inventory of properties for sale is down 49% to 122 from 241 last year.

The pressure on existing inventory is acute. The fact that we are seeing both a substantial increase in sales units and a substantial decrease in inventory for sale has created an uncomfortable balance between buyer engagement and frustration.

 

 

 

26 Danforth St., 3B/1B, $380K

 

Jamiaca Plain is experiencing the same dynamic as the South End. The average condominium sale price year to date is $363K, a 4% increase from $348K last year. The number of sales has increased 33% to 120 from 90 in 2011. The number of available condominium properties for sale is 96, a 41% decrease from 162 available last year.

 

 

 

 

529 E 8th St, 2B/2B, $463K

South  Boston, our “other” hot neighborhood saw a 27% increase in the number of sold properties to 183 versus 144 sold last year. The average selling price for a condominium year to date increased 3% to $412K from $399K last year. The number of available condos for sale decreased 57% to 112 against 261 last year at this time.

In most downtown neighborhoods the sustainability of high sales numbers in light of the huge decreases in inventory levels poses a real challenge for market balance. As always market forces will come into play. We have begun to see this in the increases in sales prices. Barring a substantial increase in inventory this trend will continue.