Tag: South End real estate

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Buyers Feeling Blue

Another interesting post by Scott about buyer attitudes in Boston

Home buyers feeling blue

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Can’t look at one more fixer-upper? Tired of bidding wars on every half-decent home that comes on the market? Wondering when, if ever, prices will go down, or at least level off, in Greater Boston?

Wondering if we have gone from global warming to a new ice age?

If so, you’ve got a bad case of the home-buyer blues, with Boston area house hunters particularly vulnerable to this new malady, a new report finds.

Confidence in the housing market among Boston area buyers is falling, according to a newreport out by Zillow and is now somewhat below the national average.

Boston’s score on Zillow’s “housing confidence index” weighs in at 63.4, below the national average of 63.7.

Meanwhile, only 8 percent of Boston area renters want to buy in the next year, compared to 10 percent nationally.

By contrast, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Miami have the highest percentage of renters looking to buy.

Rising prices and a growing dearth of homes to actually look at are two likely suspects
here.

But Zillow is not the only one picking up on some increasingly negative vibes coming from home buyers as the spring market gets ready to kick off.

Only 25 percent of house hunters across the country think it is a good time to buy now, compared to 40 percent last year, Redfin reports.

OK, to borrow a popular line from Realtor trade groups, maybe it’s all the nasty weather out there that is getting buyers down.

However, while the wintry view outside the window doesn’t help, there is clearly much more to this story than that.

 

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Boston’s Best Selling Condo Buildings

Interesting post by  Tom Acitelli at CurbedBoston – with some surprising results.

 

Boston’s Best-Selling Condo Buildings

Tuesday, March 11, 2014, by Tom Acitelli

dorave141.jpg
[141 Dorchester Avenue]

‘Tis a busy, busy time in the Boston condo market, what with lightning-fast sales and super-low inventory (two not-unrelated phenomena). But which are the busiest of the busiest condo buildings in the city? Thanks to the crackerjack research of our pals at PropertyShark, we can give you a very good idea. Herewith the 10 Boston condos with the most sales in 2013. Some of the usual suspects are here—Harbor Towers, the W Boston—but also a few surprises (and surprise omissions, we think:paging Millennium Place?). A couple of caveats: The 10 cover closed deals in calendar year 2013, and only deals of at least $10,000.

42 EIGHTH STREET
Number of sales: 48
Median sales price: $380,000
Notable sale: a 1,295-square-foot 1-BR, 2-BA for $700,000
42 8TH STREET, BOSTON, MA 02129
141 DORCHESTER AVENUE
Number of sales: 46
Median sales price: $610,000
Notable sale: a 1,690-square-foot 2-BR, 2-BA for $845,000
141 DORCHESTER AVENUE, BOSTON, MA 02127
45 PROVINCE
Number of sales: 36
Median sales price: $1,262,500
Notable sale: a 2,628-square-foot 3-BR, 3-BA for $4,100,000
45 PROVINCE STREET, BOSTON, MA 02108
WHITTIER PLACE
34
$434,500
A 536-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $360,000
6 WHITTIER PLACE, BOSTON, MA 02114
ONE CHARLES BOSTON
29
$1,345,000
A 761-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $625,000
1 CHARLES STREET SOUTH, BOSTON, MA 02116
RESIDENCES AT RITZ-CARLTON
27
$747,000
A 2,667-square-foot 3-BR, 4.5-BA for $3,162,500.
1 AVERY STREET, BOSTON, MA 02111
W BOSTON
27
$1,730,000
A 427-square-foot studio for $530,000
110 STUART STREET, BOSTON, MA 02116
RESIDENCES AT THE INTERCONTINENTAL
23
$1,425,000
A 3,385-square-foot 3-BR, 4.5-BA for $3,223,000
500 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON, MA 02110
PORTER 156
22
$349,500
A 686-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $300,000
156 PORTER STREET, BOSTON, MA 02128
HARBOR TOWERS
22
$737,750
A 1,223-square-foot 1-BR, 1-BA for $780,000
65 EAST INDIA ROW, BOSTON, MA 02110
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U.S Real Estate Is Cheaper Than Most!

 

Boy does this post put things in perspective. An interesting world view from Colin Robertson at The Truth About Mortgage! The post is a little long and wonky but gives us a needed perspective – like that the median price in Hong Kong is $4.024M!

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

 January 21, 2014

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

Believe it or not, real estate in the United States is actually really cheap, assuming you compare it to what others are paying in places like Asia, Europe, Canada, and Australia.

A new report released today by Demographia compared housing affordability in 360 markets worldwide and found that the U.S. was far and away more affordable than other countries.

In its 10th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey (which relied upon data from the third quarter of 2013), the company looked at median home prices and household incomes to determine if the dream of homeownership was within reach.

They took the median home price and divided it by the median gross household income to come up with different levels of affordability.

Historically, the median multiple has been similar across the nine nations surveyed, with median home prices typically three times (or less) median household income.

[The Home Price vs. Income Rule of Thumb]

Real Estate in Hong Kong Is Reserved for the Uber Rich

cheap and expensive

But times have changed…

Using that metric, Hong Kong was the least affordable major metropolitan area in the world with a staggering median multiple of 14.9.

In Hong Kong, which is a special administrative region of China, the median household income was $270,000 as of the third quarter.

While that sounds amazingly great, the median home price was $4,024,000. In other words, good luck.

For the record, Hong Kong was the most unaffordable major market (1,000,000+ population) in the world for the fourth year in a row.

Our neighbors to the north have a pretty expensive city of their own, with Vancouver coming in second place in terms of being largely unaffordable.

There, the median home price was only $670,300, but the median household income was just $65,000. That’s a multiple of 10.3, which makes it “severely unaffordable,” according to Demographia’s definition.

The third place you’ll never be able to afford a home is in San Francisco-Oakland, California. Hey, I didn’t say everything in the U.S. was affordable…

The Bay Area had a pretty sizable multiple of 9.2, with the median home price $705,000 and median income $76,300.

The fourth spot was located down under, with Sydney boasting a multiple of 9.0 with a median $722,700 home price and $80,500 median income.

Rounding out the bottom five was San Jose, CA, with a multiple of 8.7. There, the median home price was $805,000 as of the third quarter, higher than SF. And the median income was a hefty $92,400.

Numbers six through 10 included Melbourne, Auckland, San Diego, Los Angeles, and London.  So again, lots of U.S. cities, but those are the outliers.

Unfortunately, it’s a mess that will likely never get better because severely unaffordable markets are also the most attractive to buyers looking to snag short-term profits and “extraordinary returns on investment.”

As a result, home prices in these sought-after regions rise further, thanks to what the report calls “urban containment,” or a lack of land aka supply. Then unsustainable prices in these very cities cause mass damage to the economic system.

The report also pointed out that for young households, the “California” dream requires moving to other states, such as Texas, Indiana or Georgia…

Ireland Is the Most Affordable Nation

affordability ratings

The U.S. also had 84 “affordable” markets, compared to just seven in Canada and four in Ireland. The other regions had ZERO.

Additionally, the U.S. had 100 “moderately affordable” markets, compared to just a handful in other regions of the world.

Overall, the U.S. multiple was 3.4, which is just above the affordable mark. And a lot of pricey regions like California and New York are probably skewing the data.

The only other country to beat us in terms of overall affordability was Ireland of all places. There, the multiple was a low 2.8.

The top 23 major markets were also all located in the United States, with Pittsburgh the most affordable with a 2.3 median multiple.

It was followed by Detroit with a multiple of 2.5, Grand Rapids and Rochester with multiples of 2.6, and Atlanta with a multiple of 2.7.

In all, the U.S. accounted for 40 of the 50 most affordable major markets in the world. So stop complaining! There are plenty of bargains to be had.

[Tips for First-Time Home Buyers]

Who Cares About Worldwide Home Prices?

Why should we care about housing affordability worldwide? Shouldn’t we just focus on local home prices to make real estate decisions?

Sure, it’s good to stay local. But knowing what’s going on in the world is important too.

For example, if home prices are cheap in the U.S. relative to other regions of the world, including places as close as Canada, there’s a good chance those foreigners will be looking to invest in our neighborhoods.

Assuming they do, the supply/demand picture will change, meaning home prices should get a boost. Of course, this could also make it more difficult to land that dream home too.

 

 

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Cold Weather Hot Prices

Succinct post by Scott!

 Cold weather, hot prices

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  January 24, 2014 10:26 AM

Hard to believe with the arctic temps, but the spring real estate market is just around the corner.

And if the latest price and sales numbers are any indicator, this spring is likely to see another big jump in prices, driven in large part by the long-standing shortage of listings.

Just take a look at what happened in December, usually the dead zone of the annual real estate cycle.

Instead, home prices in the Boston area jumped 3.6 percent in December from November to a median price of more than $372,000. That’s also a more than 8 percent rise as well from December, 2012, Redfin reports.

But here’s the key stat: The inventory of unsold homes dropped nearly 20 percent from November to December, a very big one-month plunge, according to Redfin.

Overall, the number of home for sale in December was down more than 30 percent compared to December 2012.

 

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S&P/Case-Shiller: Greater Boston Values Up 10%

Good article by Chris Reidy below. November S&P/Case-Shiller numbers certainly forecast year end figures we have been reporting of Boston neighborhood sales prices up an average of 8% in 2013. The most important result of this good news is in the last paragraph which does follow what we are hearing and experiencing in the field. Sales are moderating and even declining in some neighborhoods while prices do continue to rise.

S&P/Case-Shiller: Greater Boston home values up nearly 10 percent

By Chris Reidy / Globe Staff / January 28, 2014

Home values in Greater Boston rose 9.8 percent in November on a year-to-year comparison basis, according to a report on the US housing market issued Tuesday by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

The widely watched indices tracks repeat home sales around the United States.

The Boston area’s annual rate of 9.8 percent for November represented an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In the 20-city universe that the indices track, Boston was one of nine cities where values accelerated on an annual basis.

From October to November, home values in Greater Boston rose 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices added.

The November report included a statement from David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, commenting on the latest US results.

“Beginning June 2012, we saw a steady rise in year-over-year increases,” Blitzer said. “November continued that trend with another strong month although the rate of increase slowed.”

The Warren Group and the Massachusetts Association of Realtors are expected to issue separate reports on the state’s housing markets later this week. Those reports will focus on Massachusetts home sales in December.

In reporting on November sales, Warren Group chief executive Timothy M. Warren Jr. stated: “This has been a banner year in local real estate, but one with a focus on rising prices. The sales volume growth has been more restrained and now we see a modest decline. We’re seeing the same thing in Massachusetts that the rest of the country is experiencing: a slight slowdown in home sales, driven by increasing interest rates and tight supply.”

Chris Reidy can be reached at [email protected].

© Copyright 2014 Globe Newspaper Company.
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Goode & Farmer Report – Boston Year End 2013

 Goode & Farmer Report – Boston Year End 2013

January 15, 2014

The challenge remains lack of inventory.

The Big Numbers are 6, 8 and 44! Combined, all Boston neighborhoods saw a 6% increase in the number of condos sold in 2013 to 4,605 from 4,361 sales in 2012. The average sales price of condominiums increased 8% to $608K from $563K in 2012. Average days on market dropped 44% to an average of only 46 days from an already historic low last year of 82. This real estate market is healthy except for the continuing decrease in inventory levels. There are only 374 condominiums for sale in downtown Boston, a slight increase from the 347 last year at this time, but still a very low number.

The Back Bay, saw a 4% increase in the average sales price of a condominium to $1.228 from $1.18M. Total sales of condos were down 12% to 474 from 537 in 2012 with the average days on market down a remarkable 44% to only 59. There are only 58 condos available for sale in the Back Bay today.

The South End saw a 7% increase in the number of condo sales to 578 from 540 condos sold last year. The average price of a condo sold increased 14% to $802K compared with $704K last year. Total sales volume was up 22% to $463M. Interestingly there are only 28 condos for sale today.

South Boston saw an 8% increase in the number of condos sold to 630 from 585 in 2012. The average sales price of a condo increased by 10% to $467K compared with $423K in 2012. South Boston had the largest drop in average days on market to only 32. There are only 54 condos on the market today.

It is so evident that inventory remains the problem in all of the downtown Boston markets, but as I have said repeatedly this market is so resilient and so desirable that declining inventory levels have not  affected the steady increase in prices in most neighborhoods. Although in some neighborhoods like Beacon Hill sales have decreased 25% to 140 from 186 last year – due to the total lack of inventory available for sale. There are a total of only 6 condos for sale on The Hill. Time will tell if this dynamic continues. The addition of Ink Block and numerous other condominium projects just may signal an end to the seemingly endless lack of inventory.

 

Boston chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope this clean and simple year end analysis of some favorite and important Boston neighborhoods has been interesting.

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First Annual Decline For Existing Home Sales In Over 2 Years

Interesting INMAN post with a national perspective mirroring the issues we are seeing locally in both our primary and second home market.

Existing-home sales post first annual decline in more than 2 years

Higher mortgage rates, constrained inventories and tight credit slowed pace of sales in November.

The uptick in construction will help elevate the consistent inventory shortages we are seeing, and the lessening of negative equity will help as Zillow said that by 2014 U.S. homes will have recovered 44 percent of the total value they lost from 2007 to 2011.

Teke Wiggin Staff Writer, INMAN

Higher mortgage rates, constrained inventories and tight credit slowed the pace of existing-home sales for the third month in a row in November, producing the first annual decline in sales in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today.

Existing-home sales dropped 4.3 percent from October to November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9 million, and were down 1.2 percent from a year ago, marking the first time in 29 months that sales were below year-ago levels.

“There is a pent-up demand for both rental and owner-occupied housing as household formation will inevitably burst out, but the bottleneck is in limited housing supply, due to the slow recovery in new-home construction,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a statement.

Rents are rising at the fastest pace in five years, Yun said, and annual home prices are rising at the highest rate in eight years. The spike in mortgage rates that occurred in late spring of this year has hampered home sales over the last few months, Yun and others say.

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announced Wednesday that the Fed will finally begin to reduce its $85 billion-a-month purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities in January. The news did not immediately drive up mortgage rates, but a Fed pullback is still expected to nudge them up further.

If interest rates rise, that could further crimp existing-home sales. Market indicators suggest they are likely to decrease for at least another month. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index — a forward-looking indicator of sales — dropped for the fifth straight month in October. Purchase loan applications recently hit a one-year low.

Yun recently predicted that sales of existing homes will remain flat in 2014 due to headwinds including declining affordability, limited inventory and tight mortgage lending standards.

Despite declining home sales, the outlook for the housing recovery is by no means bleak. Other market barometers point towards improvement. Single-family housing starts jumped to their highest level in well over five years in November, increasing 20.8 percent month over month and 26 percent year over year, the U.S. Census Bureau reported.

The uptick in construction could alleviate an inventory shortage that many analysts say has constrained demand, perhaps boding well for home sales in the long term. Meanwhile, sales of new single-family homes skyrocketed in October, ending a three-month slump that began in July and providing evidence that elevated mortgage rates have not seriously hobbled the housing recovery, research firm Capital Economics said.

While the number of existing homes for sale at the end of November slipped 0.9 percent to 2.09 million, the amount of time it would take for those homes to clear at the current sales pace increased to 5.1 months, up from 4.9 months in October and 4.8 months a year ago, NAR reported.

The median price of an existing single-family home slid 0.6 percent from October to November, to $196,300, but was up 9.4 percent from a year ago. Elevated home prices have begun to chip away at buying power, analysts including Yun say.

But the price appreciation has also freed millions from the shackles of negative equity, making it possible for them to sell their homes without having to resort to a short sale. Zillow said that by 2014 U.S. homes will have recovered 44 percent of the total value they lost from 2007 to 2011.

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US Economy On Best Footing Since 2007

Interesting year in review article from Lou Barnes at INMAN.

US economy is on best footing since 2007 — maybe even 1998

Lou Barnes INMAN Contributor

As with all New Year look-aheads in this space, begin with Peter Drucker: “Nobody can predict the future. Stick with a firm grasp of the present.”

Thus a focus on where we are, and things to watch, not wild swings at the blue sky.

Then note that we focus on real estate, investors and owner-occupants, mortgages and credit. The stock market does affect the economy and interest rates from time to time, but its wanderings defy grasp, firm or otherwise.

Changing my mind is a painful process. An original hypothesis may have grown obsolete, but a new one can double the chance of error. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy is on a better footing and facing lighter headwinds than any time since 2007, and maybe since 1998.

On the turn of the century we labored in the goo of a blown stock bubble, and then splattered credit and housing bubbles all over our faces. The bulk of those messes is past. The most durable and stiff breeze against us, still: Since circa 1990 global competition has capped U.S. wages.

The table set, here follows the watch list:

Incomes

Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.”

Above all else, watch incomes, especially wages in the bottom two-thirds of the workforce. Stagnant income has been the primary force frustrating the Fed’s stimulus, and tripped every Fed forecast since the show stopped in 2008.

Inflation

Until incomes grow, a ramping of inflation is impossible. That was your dad’s — or granddad’s — problem.

The Fed

So long as incomes and inflation behave, the Fed can and will continue extreme stimulus. It has to pull back from QE and will, even if the economy slows.

Credit

Next to incomes the most important thing to watch. We cannot accelerate, or even get off Fed life support without it. My very smart friend, Paul Kasriel, has detected an acceleration in bank credit, one strong enough to offset the gradual end of QE. I can’t find it. I will look, early and often.

Regulation

Ow and ouch. Most folks have noticed the difficulty the administration has had with “Obamacare.” These are the same officials who have presided over implementation of Dodd-Frank. The nation has felt the chaos of “Obamacare” for two months. The same people have been rearranging the financial world for four years. It’s amazing that we make any loans at all. At banks the combined effects of new capital requirements and the Volcker Rule are incalculable, but none lead to more credit.

Mortgages

Under the heading “Everybody Gets Lucky,” the White House has at last succeeded in replacing the Fannie-Freddie regulator. The White House’s intentions (trying fitfully for three years): Find somebody who would make life easier on underwater households, specifically by forgiving loan balances, a very bad idea. Now they’ve got their guy, Mel Watt, but the foreclosure tide has receded to scattered puddles. However, he may be just the man to lift the dead hand choking mortgage credit. At the top of the we’ll-see list.

Housing

Will not lead a cyclical recovery. Not. See “incomes,” above. Also far too many households damaged by the Great Recession. Good jobs replaced by poor ones, savings exhausted, credit damaged. Hey, Mel Watt! Want to do something useful for foreclosed families and the nation? Shorten the punitive lock-out intervals for new mortgages. Housing will over time repair itself the old-fashioned way: As rents rise, a new generation will grasp the big benefit of homeownership: The monthly payment stays put, and the mortgage balance falls over time for the persistent and disciplined.

Wild cards

The whole friggin’ outside world! Which is today a lot bigger relative to us than it used to be. One major nation is in genuine recovery: the United Kingdom. Europe is a wreck with no structural political progress at all, financial and social stresses rising. Japan’s risks are internal, but we’d all get wet in the tsunami following implosion. China is an all-time black box. Makes us look well-governed. Perverse benefits: Trouble over there might help here, just as the U.K. looks safer for business than the Continent.

Rates

Oh, that. Mortgages will rise into the fives on the slope of GDP. Or not. :-)

 

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Boston Is One Of The Healthiest Markets

I like Scott’s take on what constitutes a healthy real estate market.  A more balanced inventory picture certainly is part of it.

Greater Boston one of the “healthiest” markets?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

The Boston area has been anointed one of the “healthiest” real estate markets in the country by real estate website Zillow.

In fact, we weigh in at No. 6, behind only the top California markets and Denver, healthier than 75 percent of the hundreds of markets surveyed by Zillow.

And how did Zillow come to this conclusion? Apparently, we have a relatively low foreclosure rate – just one in every 10,000 was foreclosed on in October – while just 12 percent of homeowners in the Boston area are mired in the negative equity trap.

Overall, home values were up more than 9 percent in October to a median of $343,000.

I beg to differ.

Zillow’s metrics speak volumes about the health of the Greater Boston jobs market, one of the strongest in the country for some years now.

More high-paying jobs compared to other metro markets mean higher prices, less negative equity and fewer foreclosures. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that one.

But while Boston-area sellers are doing better now, this has to be one of the worst markets in the country for home buyers right now.

Listings of homes for sale are skidding along at all time lows and construction of new homes and condos remain mired in what has become a decades-long slump.

Some buyers have become desperate enough to resort to mass mailings in a hunt for potential homes to buy.

At least for buyers, the Boston area is hardly a healthy market. In fact, right now, it has to be one of the sickest housing markets in the country, if measured by buyer frustration.

So what’s your take? Is Greater Boston really one of the country’s healthiest housing markets? And frankly, what does “healthy” truly mean when we are talking real estate?

 

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Sellers No Longer Sitting So Pretty?

It is smart to pay attention to what the national market prognosticators are thinking and then digesting the information relative to our market. We need to pay attention to the NAR too. But when Lawrence Yun of NAR says, “…sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers…” we need to be a bit suspect. This doesn’t sound like a savvy sound bite from the leader of NAR, and it is not the case in our markets.  Whatever happened to the natural dynamic of the supply and demand curve Lawrence?

Substantial price jumps are unlikely

Brena Swanson of Housing Wire

As more inventory hits the housing market and buyers rebel against rising home prices, the real estate market is likely to shift from seller dominance to one that is more counterbalanced by buyer reluctance to acquire homes deemed too expensive.

The tighter inventory conditions of this recent spring and summer are going away as the spring months of next year start to approach, analysts say. Right now, builders are trying to make up for a lack of inventory with new homes,  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, claimed.

According to the latest Home Price Index report fromCoreLogic, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by only 0.2% in October when compared to September.

“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10% of their respective historical price peaks,” Fleming said.

The report comes with both good and bad news. It is good news certainly for the owners and home sellers who are getting the appreciation and housing equity increases, in addition to helping the economy in terms of consumer spending, Yun explained.

However, the report is not as positive for homebuyers. “There are still in my view a lot of potential homebuyers getting blocked out from buying due to rising home prices,” Yun said.

He added, “It is a clear signal that sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers. More housing inventory is coming into the market from new home construction, but it is still a sluggish pace.”

If prices increase, homebuyers may choose to step out of the market if sellers do not adjust their list prices.

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 12.5% annually in October, marking the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices.

“In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

“The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates,” Nallathambi added.

Heading into 2014, sellers are still in fairly good shape with prices edging up, but they don’t have that much further to rise, CoreLogic suggests.