Category: general info

Pending home sales jump 10.3% in one year.

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date June 14, 2013

Great national market recap from Tara Steele at Agent Genius.

Pending home sales continue to rise.

9 Telegraph Hill. List price $2.295M Pending.

Although pending home sales improved only 0.3 percent in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, contract signings actually rose 10.3 percent compared to April 2012. Pending sales have now been above year-ago levels for the past 24 months, marking a very slow but somewhat sure recovery for housing.

Regional pending home sales varied, as the Northeast and Midwest saw improvement, while the South and West both dropped. NAR reports that home contract activity is at the highest level since April 2010, immediately before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit which spurred a metaphorical gold rush on homes.

Existing home sales expected to rise to 5M

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said, “The housing market continues to squeak out gains from already very positive conditions. Pending contracts so far this year easily correspond to higher closed home sales in 2013. Total existing-home sales are expected to rise just over 7 percent to about 5 million this year.”

“Because of inventory shortages, higher home sales will push up home values to the highest level in five years,” Dr. Yun added. NAR says the national median existing-home price should increase close to 8.0 percent and exceed $190,000 in 2013.

Sales varied according to region

Home contract activity rose 11.5 percent in the Northeast, marking a 17.7 percent increase from April 2012 and jumped 3.2 percent for the month in the Midwest, and a whopping 15.1 percent for the year.

Meanwhile, pending home sales slid 1.1 percent in the South, but rose 12.3 percent compared to April 2012. The tough spot is currently the West region which saw a 7.6 percent dip in signed contracts, pulling the region down 2.6 percent for the year.

Tags Boston condo market, Boston real estate, Boston real estate sales, Boston sales outlook, Cape Cod condo sales, Cape Cod real estate, Provincetown real estate

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Mid-Market In Provincetown

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date June 13, 2013

The mid-market in Provincetown is the $400K to $800K price range. This segment represented 45% of total sales in 2012…46% of condo sales of 166 and 39% of single family sales of 52…in other words it is where the action is. Below are 3 condos and 3 single family properties that sold in 2012. 40 Pleasant is a beautifully renovated 2 bedroom condo in a 3 unit complex with wonderful outside space. 389 Commercial is a very special 1,384 square foot waterfront condo with vaulted ceilings and a huge deck. 14 Meadow is a free standing condo that lives like a single family home. 3 distinctly different properties in the mid priced segment.

290 Bradford St. 2/1, $490K — 290 Bradford St. SF 2/1, $490K

8 Priscilla Alden 2/2, $800K — 8 Priscilla Alden SF 2/2, $800K

Currently there are 56 properties on the market priced between $400K and $800K representing 33% of the total condo and single family properties available of 155.

10 Washington St is a 3 bed 4 bath condo with 1,175 square feet. 145 Commercial St is in a beachfront complex in the West End. My favorite on market condo is 15 Cottage St. #9 on the pool at the Kensington Gardens complex. 1,710 sf, 3 bedrooms, separate dining room, chefs kitchen and 3 bedrooms for $594K.

The 3 single family’s shown represent some great values. 70 Race Point Rd is a 4 bedroom, 4 bath house with 2,736 square feet. 11 Willow Drive is s brand new 3 bedroom 3 bath house with 2,234 square feet . 1 Railroad Ave is a Provincetown gem and a value at $469K.

condos:

Some single family properties;

70 Race Point Rd. 4/4, $668k — 70 Race Point Rd. SF, 4/4, $668k

11 Willow Dr. 3/3, $769K — 11 Willow Dr. SF, 3/3, $769K

1 Railroad Ave. 2/3, $469K — 1 Railroad Ave. SF, 2/3, $469K

Year to date 20 properties have sold between $400K and $800K, 11 condos and 9 single families. This represents 33% of the total sold of 60. As you can see a perfectly symmetrical market dynamic. 33% of inventory and 33% of sales.

Below are a few of these sold properties. 50 Harry Kemp Way is a spacious townhouse style 2 bedroom condo in an well established condo complex. 381 Commercial is a beachfront condo in the East End and 61 Harry Kemp Way is a magnificent new construction single family home finished with the highest quality finishes.

50 Harry Kemp Way, 2/2, $500K — 50 Harry Kemp Way #3, 2/2, $500K

381 Commercial St. 2/2, $485K — 381 Commercial St. #9, 2/2, $485K

What do these facts and figures tell you about the mid-market here in Provincetown? That it is the most active important segment in the market. That in 2012 it was almost half of all sales in the market with the average condo in this segment selling for $539K, with 2 bedrooms, and 2 baths and 1,122 square feet. The average single family home sold for $621K, had 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and was 1,705 square feet. As you can see from the assortment of properties shown above, the diversity of style, type, location and price in this segment is surprisingly diverse. I’ll keep reporting on interesting developments in the mid market and let you know my favorites as new properties come available.

Tags Cape Cod luxury sales, Cape Cod new construction, Cape Cod real estate, Cape cod real estate sales, Provincetown luxury homes, Provincetown new construction, Provincetown real estate

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Rising Rates!

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date June 12, 2013

interesting post on rising rates from Scott at Boston.com

Will rising rates spur panic buying?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

But before the chill sets in, sales could very well go into overdrive as buyers seek to lock in rock-bottom rates before they are gone.

Interest rates have just topped 4 percent. OK, that’s still incredibly low, but up sharply from 3.4 percent at the beginning of May.

If you doubt the power of the herd mentality to drive sales and prices in the real estate market, just recall what happened back during the nutty spring of 2010 as the expiration of the home buyer tax credit loomed.

Buyers bid up prices on homes in a scramble to grab the seemingly free government money before the offer expired, often negating the value of the $8,000 credit.

Could we see some panic buying over the summer if rates keep pushing up?

Don’t bet against it.

That said, in the longer term, higher rates could put a chill on sales, especially in high-priced markets like Greater Boston, or so says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

OK, NAR is not exactly the first place I look for candid insight, but I thought Yun’s observations in this Forbes piece were worth looking at.

“In Middle America I don’t see much impact since homes are so affordable,” explains Yun. “The more expensive coastal regions is where one will begin to feel the first decline or impact.” He suspects that California metro areas and east coast hubs like Boston, New York, and Washington D.C. could begin to experience slackening sales because low-interest monthly mortgage payments in these relatively pricier places have helped make homes seem more affordable to more buyers despite the fact that relative to income, principal amounts are still expensive.

Are you ready to hit the panic button? Ready to buy now and ask questions later before rates go higher?

Tags Boston condo market, Boston real estate, Boston sales outlook, Cape Cod condo sales, Cape Cod real estate, Cape Cod sales, Provincetown real estate

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Vacation Hotspots

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date June 10, 2013

Fun post by Scott from Boston.com Real Estate

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Ever wonder where your neighbors are headed on vacation? If you live in Greater Boston, it’s a good bet they aren’t headed very far.

Trulia today is releasing its list of the top vacation home destinations for each major metro market, as well as nationally, based on a tally of searches on the real estate portal.

Of the top ten most popular vacation home destinations for buyers from Greater Boston, nine are on Cape Cod.

In fact, the only break from the pattern is Wells, Maine. Sorry New Hampshire, Vermont and Rhode Island, you are out of luck.

Let’s not get big heads here, though. Sure, we love the Cape, though I’d argue traffic and overdevelopment is close to wrecking the place. Just get off Route 6 in Hyannis and take a scenic drive down Route 28.

But the rest of America is not so enamored with our favorite vacation playground.

Only one Massachusetts zip code managed to make it onto Trulia’s list of the top 20 vacation home destinations across the country.

And that happens to be Nantucket, which ranks at a distant No. 20 in popularity.

The most popular vacation home destination in America, at least according to Trulia, is not Chatham or Provincetown, but rather Cape May in New Jersey, and specifically, Oceanwood, where the median price is $525,000.

Here’s Trulia list:

Where Bostonians Search for Vacation Homes

# ZIP Code Town    State         Median Asking Price
1 02649 Mashpee MA             $419,900
2 02639 Dennisport MA            $224,900
3 02540 Falmouth MA              $549,950
4 02554 Nantucket MA             $1,799,999
5 02536 Teaticket   MA $379,000
6 02633 South Chatham MA     $815,000
7 02657 Provincetown MA         $596,500
8 02631 Brewster MA               $439,000
9 02642 Eastham MA               $445,750
10 04090 Wells ME                  $256,670

Tags Cape Cod condo sales, Cape Cod luxury sales, Cape Cod real estate, Provincetown luxury homes, Provincetown real estate

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Home Values Rise In Boston Area

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date June 3, 2013

Great Case-Shiller chart illustrating the 2005 peak and where we are now.

Home values rise in the Boston area

Region’s prices less than 15% below peak; national numbers also show increase

By Jenifer B. McKimGLOBE STAFF

Home values in the Boston area increased by 6.7 percent in March compared with the same time last year, according to data released Tuesday by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, another indicator of a rejuvenated housing market.

Nationwide, home prices increased 10.9 percent compared with March 2012, according to Case-Shiller, and values increased in all 20 metro areas measured by the firm. Because Case-Shiller measures repeat homes sales, it is considered one of the best markers of the nation’s housing health.

“Other housing market data reported in recent weeks confirm these strong trends: Housing starts and permits, sales of new homes and existing homes continue to trend higher,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The increase in the Boston area was less dramatic than in other regions that were harder hit by the housing downfall. Between 2005 and 2009, home prices in the Boston region dropped about 20 percent, but the market has generally been more stable than the nation as a whole. Since 2009, area home values have fluctuated and now are less than 15 percent below their September 2005 peak.

Barry Bluestone, director of the Kitty and Michael Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University, expects steady but moderate price increases for single-family homes in the Boston area over the next few years, as more people put their homes on the market. Bluestone said he expects prices for multifamily homes and condominiums to rise even faster. “Older baby boomers are going to look to downsize and younger professionals will be less interested in moving into the suburbs and having to put up with long, tedious commutes,” he said.

Jenifer B. McKim can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter@jbmckim.

Tags Boston condo market, Boston real estate, Boston sales volume, Cape Cod condo sales, Provincetown real estate

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Mass Home Prices Jump 14%

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date May 30, 2013

Mass. home prices jump 14%

By Jenifer B. McKim

MAY 29, 2013

The median price for single-family homes in Massachusetts rose to $313,000 in April, a near 14 percent increase compared to the same time last year as increased buyer demand and a tight housing inventory pushed up home values, new data released Wednesday shows.

April marked the seventh month in a row of rising home prices, according to the Warren Group, a Boston company that tracks local real estate. Between January and April, the median selling price climbed to $294,000, an 11 percent jump compared to the same time last year, according to Warren.

The steep price increase comes as home sales decline. Single-family home sales dropped to 3,504 in April, about 1 percent less than the same time in 2012.

”There is high demand and low inventory this spring, which is causing this pattern of rising prices and dropping sales volume,” said Timothy M. Warren Jr., chief executive of The Warren Group. “Low mortgage rates and steady home values are helping buoy consumer confidence.”

Tight inventory, however, did not hinder sales of condominiums, which climbed more than 8 percent in April compared to the same time last year, the Warren Group reported. Median prices for condos rose to $280,000, a near 1 percent jump compared to April, 2012.

Housing specialists worry that if more sellers don’t come to the table, the housing market could sputter. Inventory of single-family homes in April fell 27.1 percent compared to the same time last year, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, which also released data Wednesday. The number of condos for sale fell 32.4 percent last month, compared to the same time last year.

Providing some relief, new listings for both condos and single-family homes rose in the double digits in April.

“With home prices improving, sellers are finally gaining the confidence they need to list their home,” said association president Kimberly Allard-Moccia, owner of Century 21 Professionals in Braintree. “This should help move us closer to a more balanced market.”

Tags Boston condo sales volume, Boston real estate, Boston sales outlook, Cape Cod real estate, Cape Cod sales

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$1M Plus Market In Provincetown. A Spring Preview

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date May 24, 2013

The $1,000,000 market in Provincetown is solid and active. In 2012 16 properties sold above $1M, 15 single family homes and 1 condo. These represent 7% of the total 218 condos and single family homes sold in 2012. As you can see below, these range in style, size and of course location. The average sales price was $1.575M, had 4 bedrooms and 3.25 baths with 2,250 square feet of living space. (6 of these properties are shown below.)

5 Telegraph Hill $1.15M — 5 Telegraph Hill $2.15M

There are currently 157 condos and single family homes on the market, 31 of which are priced at $1M +, representing 23% of the available inventory. The average property above $1M is asking $1.869M, has 4 bedrooms and 4.5 baths, with 2,763 square feet of living space. Of these available properties 32 are single family homes and 4 are condos. (6 of those properties are shown below)

2013 looks to be as strong or stronger. So far 7 properties have sold, 6 single family homes and 1 condo, and 4 properties are currently under contract. Considering the strong summer fall selling season is still to come this is good news for the $1M + market. (6 of the 7 properties that have sold so far this year are shown below)

7 Pleasant St $1.024M — 7 Pleasant St $1.045M

In many markets the “high-end” or above $1M market is the most visible market. The same is true here in Provincetown. The trophy homes, the big waterfront properties, the East End and West End compounds all draw interest and gossip. But interestingly enough many of these homes are wonderful family and year round properties, very accessible and in fact well priced for the amount of house you get.

The interesting numbers are 7% and 23%. While available properties for sale above $1M represent 23% of the total, only 7% of the properties sold in 2012 were sold above $1M. what does this mean? That while the $1M + market is viable and strong, lots of properties do take a while to sell. We need to remember that the second home market in whatever price point we are talking about is not as fast paced and dramatic as the primary home market. For many this means a more relaxed buying and selling process for others it is frustrating. Where do you fit?

Tags Cape Cod condo sales, Cape Cod luxury sales, Cape Cod real estate, Cape cod real estate sales, Provincetown, Provincetown luxury homes, Provincetown real estate

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Shadow Demand Outweighs Shadow Inventory

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date May 21, 2013

Very interesting post from Mike Simonsen at Altos Research. In essence he is saying that buyers who held back buying in a sluggish economy are now entering the market in a time of low inventory, creating additional demand, which becomes hard to satisfy.

Real Estate Shadow Demand Outweighs its Shadow Inventory

by MIKE SIMONSEN

Quit your yapping about how strong the real estate market is, Simonsen. It’s a fake rally. There is no actual demand.

That’s the bearish argument I’ve been hearing lately. I’m not buying it.

For years we’ve been watching the phenomenon of “Shadow Inventory” of potential homes that need to be sold, and looking for impact on the market. This set of underwater or distressed properties is now shrinking rapidly. The number of homes with underwater mortgages fell by nearly two million last year. According to the Fed, home price gains of 10% will be enough to move 40% of underwater borrowers back above water. These home sellers are highly likely to buy another home in the same or comparable market, off setting new supply with new demand.

Meanwhile another phenomenon that emerged from the bubble burst has been developing, and it’s hit the market with full force. Shadow Demand. Demand for homes that went unsatisfied, primarily due to financial and economic uncertainty, that can now emerge as jobs recover and mortgages remain cheap.

Housing’s Shadow Demand

Let’s look at the source of new demand. Increased demand for housing comes from new “households.”

Cumulative Household formation surpluss/defecit relative to 5 year average (millions). Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Altos ResearchFrom 1997 through 2007, each year an average of 1.3 million new households were formed per year. Our population grows via immigration and kids maturing. These people need to rent or buy homes, or they double up with friends and family. During the Great Recession, household formation was closer to 600,000 per year. Population growth continued at about the same pace but people didn’t move into homes of their own. That means for the three years of 2008, 2009, 2010 we had “Shadow Demand” forming around 2 million potential homes that can’t wait to launch on their own.

In the chart above, you can see that households get formed during times of economic strength. People hide when the economy is bad.

Household formation in the five years of the housing bust was lower than any five year period since the 1960s. This is the Shadow Demand and it’s now hitting the real estate market. These millions of potential buyers were waiting until they were financially stable and until the bargains arrived. In 2012, these conditions converged. In 2013 employment and recovery is stronger. Real estate demand is higher.

Despite all the risks in the US and global economies, the 2012 real estate market’s demand is a function of years of pent up purchases. After years of historic lows, this demand trends seems poised for a multi-year recovery.

Tags Boston condominium market, Boston real estate, Boston real estate sales, Boston sales outlook, Cape Cod condo sales, Cape Cod real estate, Provincetown luxury homes, Provincetown real estate

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Are 2013 Forecasts Too Low?

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date May 14, 2013

Here is a great article by Mike Simonsen of Altos Research.

Why Forecasts for the 2013 Housing Market are Too Low

MARCH 2013

by MIKE SIMONSEN

I’m in Washington DC to talk to the National Association of Business Economics on the state of the housing market. I ran into Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and he mentioned that he just raised his forecast for 2013 from 4% year over year to 7-8%. That’s pretty bullish. Yun, of course, takes a lot of flack for being an industry cheerleader rather than objective. So he should be bullish, right? I told him he’s still too low.

The logic is this: in 2012 US Housing Prices climbed between 5 and 12%, depending on which measure you choose. The Case-Shiller Index climbed 6.8% year over year at the end of 2012. Here in 1Q 2013, all the leading indicators are stronger than they were a year ago. (For those of you just tuning in, this is the third in a series of “home prices are stronger than you think” posts from me this winter.)

Contact Altos if you want details on the our housing market data.

	2012 (December)	2013 Forecast
Altos Research	7.9%	10%
CoreLogic	6.8%	6%
NAR	11.5%	8%
Clear Capital	4.9%	5%

Note that all these measures, except for Altos, focus on the closed transactions. They are, by definition, lagging. It makes sense that, in an accelerating market, the Altos number is going to hit it’s high several months before the others do.

The always-lucid Bill McBride at CalculatedRisk saw homes prices rise in 2012 but anticipates a slowdown in 2013, though he doesn’t say why.

Composite Prices. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of February 22, 2013. Source: Altos Research

If you observe that home prices rose at x% last year and that the conditions (low supply, high demand) that created that rise are stronger this year, it’s reasonable that your models should indicate stronger price appreciation this year. Don’t be surprised when 2013 turns out to be another roaring year for home prices.

Tags bost, Boston real estate, Boston real estate sales, Boston South End condo sales, Cape Cod real estate, Provincetown real estate

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Towns Rush Past Their 2005 Peak Values!

Post author By Jon Goode
Post date May 8, 2013

WOW!!! Interesting post by Scott on BostonRealEstate.com

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

OK, I guess the rich towns just keep getting richer.

Home values in Cambridge, Arlington and Brookline have all shot past their peaks reached during the bubble years, Zillow finds in its latest quarterly report.

The median home value in Cambridge (yes trolls, I know, it’s a city, was using “town” loosely) is now $463,000, a level last seen back in 2005, one of the bubbliest years on record. That’s compared to $453,000 in April, 2005.

Brookline last fall blew past its 2005 price peak of $502,000, with the median home value having skyrocketed over the past five months to just under $530,000, according to Zillow, whose home value index blends both prices of homes sold with assessed values of homes that are not on the market. (Basically, it’s a measurement of the value of all homes in the market, not just a compendium of sale prices.)

Arlington is back as well, with a median home value of $475,000 – higher than Cambridge.

That’s compared to Arlington’s bubble years’ peak of $463,000 reached back in October, 2005, Zillow reports.

Meanwhile, other local cities and towns are on target to equal and then pass their 2005 peaks over the next year.

Boston’s median home value is $372,900, a single percent below peak, while Newton, at $714,400, is just two percent off, Somerville, at $381,400, is within striking distance, at 5 percent below its last peak.

Ready to party? What’s the value of your home?

Tags Boston condominium market, Boston real estate, Boston real estate sales, Boston South End condo sales