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Goode & Farmer Report Boston – January 2013

Lack of Inventory remains the challenge.

The Big Number is 23%. Combined, all Boston neighborhoods saw a 23% increase in the number of condo sold in 2012, from 3,544 sales in 2011 to 4,361 sales in 2012. The average sales price of condominiums increased 5% to $563K from $536K in 2011. The median sales price increased 8% to $410K from $380K in 2011. This real estate market is healthy except for the continuing decrease in inventory levels. The number of condominiums for sale in downtown has dropped 46% to 565 from 1050 last year at this time, and that was an extremely low number!

The Back Bay, saw a 24% increase in sales to 537 units from 433 in 2011, while the average price of a condo sold increased by 5% to $1.18M. The number of condos available for sale dropped 49% from 158 last year to only 80 today.

The South End saw a 9% increase in the number of condo sales to 540 condos sold year to date compared to 497 last year. The average price of a condo sold increased 6% to $704K compared with $663K last year. The inventory of condos for sale decreased 30% from a very low 91 last year to a terrifying 64 today. The dearth of inventory is the issue going forward.

South Boston saw a 26% increase in the number of condo sold to 585 in 2012 compared with 466 in 2011. The average sales price of a condo increased by 11% to $423K compared with $382K in 2011. South Boston has the largest drop in inventory of all downtown n’hoods down 72% from 141 properties for sale on this date last year compared to 39  available for sale today.

Inventory remains the problem, but as I have said repeatedly this market is so resilient and so desirable that declining inventory levels have not negatively effected the steady increase in sales and prices. Time will tell if this dynamic continues.

 

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analytics general info

Lack of Inventory In Boston Getting Serious

My good friend, excellent agent and blogger Briggs Johnson at Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage hits it squarely on the mark with this post which illustrates the decrease in inventory year over year and its potential effect on the market. I have posted it in its entirety below. Visit his blog. 

September 18, 2012 By 

“The Caravan Indicator”

There are several indicators and indexes that people follow to determine market conditions.  The indicator I am going to use that sparked this blog entry is  going to called the “Caravan Indicator”. What many people don’t know is that behind the scenes here at Coldwell Banker (downtown), every few weeks, we hire a bus to drive us all around town to check out new listings in Back Bay, Beacon Hill, South End, South Boston and the Seaport District etc. Its a great way for us to view new inventory and for us to be knowledgeable of the market in all price points. Today, is caravan day and it was cancelled due to lack of inventory…..Wait, What?! I can understand there being a cancelled caravan in late fall or August when everyone is on vacation, but not now, not September, not in the second week of the second strongest time of year to get new inventory. Really?

I was ready to bounce around the city and view some properties, but, since that wasn’t happening, I did some research to see how limited inventory really is. I went on MLS and looked up current inventory, the amount of listings currently under agreement and the amount of listings that have been sold in the past 2 months. The numbers don’t lie and I found them pretty shocking. Since I really only focus on the downtown neighborhoods. I used the 4 neighborhoods i do a lot of business in . Here are the Stats:

Neighborhood         # of Listings    # Under Agreement      # Sold in last 2 months

Back Bay                            104                                  57                                   124

South End                          78                                   57                                    110

Beacon Hill                        59                                  14                                      41

Seaport District               16                                  7                                        23

 

Last Year (2011)              # of Listings                          % Decrease from 2011

Back Bay                                213                                                           52%

South End                             183                                                           58%

Beacon Hill                            82                                                             28%

Seaport District                   37                                                             57%

 

The way I look at this information is that it is a great time to sell and list a property. There are a ton of buyers out there and they are in desperate need of decent inventory. On the flip side, If you are a buyer looking in these neighborhoods, be prepared to be frustrated and be ready to enter a multiple offer situation (if you are a serious buyer looking in a popular area). In the South End alone there have been 24 places go under agreement in the past 2 weeks.  If you are a buyer looking in the South End under $450k. there are only 9 places on the market and only 3 of them are north of Washington Street. If you are a buyer looking in the 800-1 million range in the Back Bay, there are only 11 listings on the market.  Six of those listings have been on the market for over 100 days, so quality is as compromised as quantity right now. If you are a Beacon Hill buyer looking from 600-900k there are only 3 listings on the market. 2 of those listings have been on the market for over 170 days. Brutal!!

I can understand that sellers are hesitant to list because there  isn’t much to move into if they sell and want to stay in downtown Boston. But if you are a possible seller looking to move out of state or to the “burbs” this could be an ideal time to make the jump.

I know all downtown agents are saying “list your property now” but hopefully some of this data, makes you think about the scenario with a different tone. Have hope and don’t be afraid to enter the market, just be informed and realistic.

Happy Hunting and Start Listing!!

 

 

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general info

Are Buyers Bummed Out In Boston?

Scott at Boston.com comes up withe some great posts and I have posted another one below. Scott talks about a Redfin survey that finds only 46% of buyers surveyed  think it is a good time for house hunting. This is apparent as well in all anecdotal information from the field specifically in downtown Boston. The issue remains lack of good available inventory and the impact that this will have in the “nascent real estate recovery. Jon

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  September 4, 2012 07:59 AM

So says Redfin in a troubling new survey of buyers in 19 major metro markets across the country, including Boston.

Fewer than half the buyers out there – 46 percent – actually believe it is a good time to be house hunting, according to the online brokerage firm.

That’s a big shift from the first quarter, when hopes for deals and bargains was much higher among buyers as the spring sales season approached. Back then, 56 percent said it was good time to buy, Redfin notes.

However, probably the most dramatic change is in buyers’ expectations of where home prices are headed. The number of buyers who believe home prices are headed up has nearly doubled, to 61 percent from 32 percent in the first quarter.

So what’s made home buyers so glum?

Well bidding wars haven’t helped, with seven out of 10 buyers reporting they had encountered multiple bids on at least one offer, according to Redfin.

In fact, 31 percent of those surveyed said they would back off if confronted with another bidding war, up from 28 percent this spring.

Of course, at the root of the problem is a falling supply of homes for sale, a phenomenon that has endangered the nascent real estate recovery both here in Greater Boston and across the country.

Fewer choices have meant more bidding wars, rising prices and increasingly grumpy buyers. (The Redfin survey is based on the responses of 829 buyers during the week of Aug. 16-22.)

And the stumbling economy – and all those storm clouds over Europe’s rickety banking system – hasn’t helped cheer buyers up either.

The percentage of buyers worried about the economy rose to 27 percent from 20
percent in the first quarter.

We’ll just have to wait and see what the fall selling season brings, I guess.

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general info

Condo Association Hints

We recently had a closing where the buyers had always owned single family homes and never a condominium, so didn’t have any idea of how Condo Associations worked. So…an HOA (home owners association) primer follows. Yes, condo documents are boring, association meeting notes are boring, budgets are boring… but get to know your new new homeowners association! Don’t be surprised by assessments, crazy leadership, unreasonable rules..get to know your HOA and then work with your HOA to make your property a better investment. Below is a great post from Inman News.

Inman News

Here are a few guidelines for buyers-to-be and new owners of condos and other properties in HOAs:

1. Read the HOA disclosures — thoroughly. When you get into contract on a home that is located within an HOA, you receive a bulky stack of documentation about the association. It can be a mind-numbing, eye-twitch-inducing pile of bank account statements, historical documents and legalese. However, these materials are uber-important, as they provide the details and contours of this new business and interpersonal relationship you are about to embark on with your neighbors.

Things like the HOA’s plans for ongoing maintenance and upgrades, the HOA budget, the cash they have in reserve — all these things have the potential to impact your household budget.

For example, if the building needs a new roof and there’s not enough cash to cover the costs, most HOAs have the power to levy a special assessment on each owner for their share of the cost! The fact that you own your place means you also own some share of the responsibility for the building. That’s what owning in an HOA is all about.

Additionally, as you’ve learned the hard way, there are loads of HOA guidelines that may impact your lifestyle and your plans for your home. I have received dozens and dozens of notes over the years from condo owners like yourself protesting HOA restrictions on everything from parking to pet size and even flooring material and paint colors! Yes, the place belongs to you, but when you buy into a condo you opt into following the guidelines the HOA has in place for ensuring every owner can enjoy their home and all can live in peace.

I suspect the fee of concern to you covers the management company’s processing of your plans for modifying your home to ensure their compliance with HOA and other guidelines.

The ideal here is to read these documents thoroughly as part of your decision-making about whether to buy the property while you still have time to back out of the transaction if you don’t want to be bound by the HOA’s strictures.

2. Read more casual HOA member documents. Along with the formal HOA disclosures, condo buyers often receive a set of more casual documents, including a copy of the building rules and regulations, and the community newsletters. In my experience, these documents can actually be even more telling than the formal ones in terms of previewing for you the daily experience of living in the community. Yes, you’re likely to see a fair amount of minutiae, like recipes and block party announcements.

But you’re also likely to see things like board meeting agendas with line items like discussions of whether to raise the HOA dues, and conversations about any concerning, large repairs that might need doing. If you haven’t read these documents yet, you should now, to prevent further nasty or costly surprises.

In the same vein, I encourage condo buyers and new owners to talk with the building manager about common complaints and community issues (including fee increases) that are on the horizon, as well as connecting with other homeowners in the building or complex about their experience and any surprise costs or unpleasant rules they have encountered.

3. Participate in your HOA. Read the agendas of your HOA’s board meetings before they happen, attend the meetings and even participate on your board if possible. HOA boards ultimately have the power to impose dues increases, select the accounting and insurance vendors whose work and fees are so critical to the costs of living in the community, and select the contractors who do major building and community upgrades and repairs.

If you have a very strong issue with fees or rules that are currently governing your experience as a homeowner, the best way to address them is to become a vocal, active participant in your HOA board.

 


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analytics general info

The Goode and Farmer Report – Boston Q2 Update

The Big Number is 16%. That’s the increase in condo sales in Boston as of June 30. Combined, all Boston neighborhoods saw a 16% increase in the number of condo sales year to date, a 2% increase in the average price of a condominium sold, and a 5% increase in the median sales price. Put together all this good news is more evidence that while not necessarily out of the woods, this real estate market is healthier than most. The one downside to this exceptional sales activity is that inventory levels of available condo’s for sale have fallen 38% to 1,177 properties for sale versus 1,903 at th is time last year.

Boston’s most expensive neighborhood the Back Bay,  saw a 30% increase in sales while the average price  of a condo sold dropped by 11% to $1.162M. The inventory level of properties for sale dropped 31% to 168 condos for sale vs 242 last year.

The South End saw a 24% increase in the number of condo sales to 264 properties and  the average price of a condo sold increased 1% to $684K. The inventory of condos for sale decreased 45% from 208 to 114. Unless this condition corrects itself this will be a factor in market performance going forward.

South Boston, the darling of the my last market report moderated somewhat with a 4% increase in the average sales price to $408K and a 12% increase in sales to 235 properties sold through the second quarter. South Boston has the largest drop in inventory of all downtown n’hoods down 56% from 225 properties for sale last year to 99 available for sale today.

Every downtown neighborhood has it’s own story and most are positive excepting the inventory numbers. Total Boston numbers highlight the good news. Sales volume is up 19% to $1.080B… One Billion, 80 million dollars! Average days on market are down 12% and the inventory of properties for sale is down 38%.  These numbers highlight incredible short term performance but portend serious issues going forward.

 

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analytics general info

Low Inventory Pushing Prices Up In Boston?

Scott Van Voorhis  did a great post on declining inventory levels finally driving up prices in Boston.  I have excerpted the post below. The numbers are staggering in many of the markets shown.

Boston has landed near the top of a list of major metro markets across the country where low inventory appears to finally driving up home prices.

Boston comes in No. 11 on the report, having seen the number of homes on the market drop 37 percent over the past year, as of June 19, according to a new report by Movoto Real Estate. (Movoto is an national on-line brokerage whom I am certainly not endorsing but who did an interesting report). During the same period prices of homes on the market in the Hub have risen 11 percent to nearly $300,000.

Here’s an excerpt from Movoto’s report.

We are seeing a gradual increase in the prices of homes in areas that have been most affected by low inventory. This could be an indicator the housing market has finally pulled out of its slump. We’d like to think so.

Here are the two relevant sets of stats taken from the Movoto report. The first shows declining inventory levels in Boston and other major metro markets across country.

  • Las Vegas, down 66 percent
  • San Francisco, down 65 percent
  • Miami, down 62 percent
  • Fresno, down 52 percent
  • Oakland, down 50 percent
  • Long Beach, down 49 percent
  • Seattle, down 42 percent
  • Mesa, down 41 percent
  • Phoenix, down 41 percent
  • Portland, down 41 percent
  • Boston, down 37 percent

The second set of stats, also from Movoto, shows the rise in list prices in these same cities.

  • Las Vegas, up 52 percent
  • Phoenix, up 30 percent
  • Mesa, up 25 percent
  • Miami, up 23 percent
  • San Francisco, up 23 percent
  • Austin, up 22 percent
  • Oakland, up 17 percent
  • Seattle, up 14 percent
  • Fresno, up 13 percent
  • Long Beach, up 12 percent
  • Boston, up 11 percent

Combine more buyers with fewer sellers and prices start to go up.

That tried and true  economic law of supply and demand is always the reason why prices go up or down. As I say repeatedly… Empirical data does not lie.

 

 

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analytics

We All Knew It – Home Sales Are Back

The comeback in home sales that many of us have been seeing hints of is now backed up with solid numbers. All reports are showing sales increases as well as declining inventory levels. Second quarter sales reports will show terrific numbers especially in downtown Boston neighborhoods. Sales of single-family homes in Massachusetts have bounced back to levels not seen since the Great Recession sent an already declining market into a tailspin. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported this week that May home sales were up more than 27 percent over the same month last year, while  The Warren Group pegs the jump at 35 percent.

The best news is that after hints of recovery for months, and most importantly our experience on the streets, the long-suffering real estate market finally appears to be living up to expectations and is finally in a recovery and coming out of the the deep trough it plunged into after the near global economic collapse of September 2008.

The 4,445 homes sold in May surpassed both May 2007 and May 2006 as well, when 3,884 and 4,200 homes were sold, respectively, in those months, according to a comparison of numbers from past monthly reports on the MAR website.

Look for articles and reports touting these terrific results and for the resulting positive effect on buyer and seller confidence.

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architecture general info

Highest Condo Sale In South End!

32 Rutland St #3L, the penthouse, is not only the most expensive condominium sold in the South End this year, but it is one of the most incredible penthouses ever built in our wonderful neighborhood.  This condo was one of six units built in the recent renovation of the old “Project Place” at 32 Rutland St, which was a homeless and low income assistance program (which is a great cause and still exists).

The project was marketed beautifully by Mary Kelleher and her team at Sothebys International Realty and sold by Briggs Johnson in the South End office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Two of the best!

                 

This particular penthouse duplex is 1 of 6 units that has about everything that you could Imagine: Direct Elevator Access, 2 Fireplaces, Enormous Master Suite, Surround Sound throughout, 3.5 bedrooms, garage parking, modern metal and wood railings, 2 decks (with 1 being 1100sf with outdoor kitchen and grill and a 6 person hot tub, with tv). The Master bath is in a class of it’s own. It boasts a whirlpool tub with a tv built in, and the master shower has the Kohler 12 jet digital shower system which is just just crazy , oh, and a TV in the shower too. It has 3,145 square feet and sold for $2.6M which comes out to $827 per square foot.

                 

So far, 5 of 6 have been sold with the largest and priciest one left which can be seen here This unit is a large lower duplex with even more bells and whistles, so check out this listing.

Compare this property to the “Best on the Beach” Waterfront property I posted about a few weeks ago. An interesting comparison as to what close to $3M buys you in the South End vs Provincetown.

 

 

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analytics

Boston Condo Inventory Down 32%

The supply and demand dynamic is firmly in place in downtown neighborhoods with not enough property for sale relative to buyer demand. Taking all Boston neighborhoods together, condominium inventory is down 32% from the same time last year – from 2,010 properties for sale last year to 1,360 today. In the South End there are 129 condos for sale versus 205 on the market last year at this time,  a 37% decrease.

Linda Ciborowski, a top South End agent with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, sees two very interesting developments as a result of these depressed inventory levels.  Linda says, “Anything that shows well, is in good condition and in a desirable location sells with amazing speed. I’ve noticed two interesting things that make it even more important to be working with a good broker.”

“Brokers who don’t know the market are pricing properties too low based on old comps or too high based on false expectations. Initial pricing just seems more important than ever.”

 “Appraisals have become very difficult since the properties that have closed in the past 6 months don’t reflect the prices that new listings are going under agreement for due to prices being driven up by low inventory.”

In the Back Bay today there are 171 condos on the market compared with 240 last year. That’s a 29% decrease. In South Boston 145 condos are listed for sale compared with 232 last year, a 37% decrease. Reports are that there are not a lot of listings in the pipeline. Hopefully, we will see a surge in listing activity through the end of April and into May.

This low level of inventory poses a few issues for the strengthening real estate market downtown. The first being that inventory is needed to sustain the strong beginning to the spring market. The second is that high demand and low inventory creates what some may consider “irrational exuberance.” I don’t believe it is irrational. These conditions “on the street” have created this excitement… and the excitement is real!  Just ask any buyer who has missed out on a property or talk to any agent who has dealt with 40 people at each of their Sunday open house. It is exciting… and we will keep our eye on the market as we move into May.

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analytics general info

The Goode and Farmer Report – Boston Q1 Update

Excellent news for Boston is that condominium sales rose in the first quarter when compared with last year. All Boston neighborhoods combined saw an 8% increase in sales from 572 last year to 616 this year. Increased sales meant increased dollar volume in most neighborhoods. South Boston leads the way  in percentage increase with a 32% increase from last year to $33M in sales volume. . All Boston neighborhoods combined saw a 5% increase in sales volume from $321M to $338M.

The average sales price for a condo in Back Bay decreased 4% to $1,263K but the number of units sold increased 6% to 72.

On Beacon Hill the average sales price for a condo decreased 10% to $860K but the number of condos sold increased wildly by 30% to 30. Interestingly total days on market decreased by 37% to 114 days versus 180 days last year.

In the South End the number of units sold increased by 21% to 78 condo properties, also a very strong but not surprising increase, given the demand we are seeing in the neighborhood.

As mentioned South Boston saw a 32% increase in sales volume representing 19% increase in sale units. The average sales price increased 8% to $410K from $379K last year. If this were a competition, South Boston takes first place with these numbers… and average days on market decreased by 30% which is yet another indication of the demand for South Boston properties.

In general with sales up everywhere, and inventory still very low, the supply and demand dynamic is firmly in place. We are in the key Spring selling season and inventory is needed to maintain the strong sales pace we have seen so far.