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Middle Market Towns Back

 

Interesting Boston.com post by Scott.

Middle Market Towns Hot

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis June 2, 2014

The spring market has been particularly choppy this year. Sales have stalled amid a shortage of listings that has left many buyers fuming. The up today, down tomorrow economy hasn’t help things much either.

And it has been an increasingly uneven real estate market as well. A few towns and neighborhoods are super hot, with double digit increases in sales and prices. By contrast, many other communities are seeing a falloff in either sales or prices, and, in some cases, both.

Not hot right now are a growing number of the more affluent suburbs, such as Hingham and Carlisle, which have seen both prices and sales fall off this spring.

Ditto for low income cities and urban neighborhoods, which, after starting to rebound after hitting bottom during the Great Recession, are starting to see prices deflate again.

But the middle market towns out there right now are the hot ones, posting big increases in both sales and prices this springaccording to April numbers recently posted by The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

Towns seeing the biggest jumps in sales and prices this spring include:

Danvers: Median price rose 18 percent, to $377,500, while sales rose by more than 18 percent;
Dedham: Median price surged to nearly $400,000 – a 20 percent increase – while sales jumped 13 percent;
Barnstable: Median price jumped more than 35 percent, to $469,950, while sales soared nearly 41 percent;
Beverly: Sales up 42 percent while prices increased nearly 12 percent to $369,959;
Milford: Sales rose by more than 41 percent while the median price hit $270,000, an increase of more than 17 percent.
Norwood: Sales increased by more than 46 percent while the median price rose more than 9 percent, to $377,450
Wakefield: Median price jumped to nearly $420,000, or a 13 percent increase, while sales rose by nearly 10 percent;
Waltham: Median price hit $441,000, an increase of 11 percent, while sales jumped more than 17 percent.

 

 

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Will Success Ruin Boston?

Another interesting post by Scott.

Will success ruin Greater Boston?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Boston is one of those hot cities increasingly favored by the global business elite.

It’s easy to gaze at all the posh new apartment and condo towers on the city’s skyline and wonder who can afford to live there, but the wealthy buyers just keep on coming, whether from the suburbs or from any number of distant lands.

We’ve got the best colleges and universities, one of the biggest concentrations of bio-tech and life science companies and talent in the world, and a thriving tech sector.

But success can come sometimes with a hefty price-tag, and rising real estate prices tops the list.

Writes Bynxers, a regular contributor to the comment board of this blog:

Eventually- the city will drown in its own success. Is it the natural evolution of a successful city? That only the wealthy can afford to reside there, and to “promote equality” affordable housing is put in place for those needing government subsidy, while no help or policy is put in place to assist the working class, middle class or even upper-middle class??

Right on, Bynxers. Too much success, unless treated properly, can prove to be a fatal disease.

The tendency is to keep on keeping on, despite diminishing and increasingly toxic returns.

Here’s more:

Hop in a plane and ride east for several hours to Europe or West to San Francisco. And behold, there you will see the future of Boston…..

Eventually- the city will drown in its own success. Is it the natural evolution of a successful city? That only the wealthy can afford to reside there, and to “promote equality” affordable housing is put in place for those needing government subsidy, while no help or policy is put in place to assist the working class, middle class or even upper-middle class??

Those original property owners are long gone: residents of Southie sold their triple deckers and now live on the South Shore…. Other neighborhoods have similar outcomes. Is this natural??? Is this the price of success???

I argue, in part, yes…. With a MAJOR “but” at the end….. Housing prices have been pushed up by artificial scarcity for years (atleast 20 or so). Not just in Boston- but eastern mass as a whole. Large lot requirements for single families, height restrictions and density restrictions…. its simple supply and demand. Now the city and state are just trying to catch up, but its too little too late.

There is no vindication at the end of this, no “gotcha” moment, no fairness, really. The middle class will have a choice: pay up or leave. There’s a constant new influx of young grads to fill the void for a while though and it will be a revolving door. Those born and raised here will likely stick it out. However, many will pack up and leave. The fate of the city and region at this point is more or less cast in stone, I’d assert.

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Q1 Goode and Farmer Report Boston

 

The national real estate pundits are talking about the lack of available inventory and declining sales numbers. These first quarter results for downtown Boston condominium sales tell a different story. The average sales price for condos in downtown Boston neighborhoods increased 21%. Sale were up by 12%. Total sale volume was up by 35%.

The South End and Back Bay neighborhoods reflect the more  standard state of the real estate industry here in eastern MA. Prices are up because of buyer demand, but sales are down and volume is flat – the effect of the critically depressed inventory of available condos for sale.

 

Boston chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Boston is  standout neighborhood! Average sales price up 20%.  Sales up 41%. Volume up 71%…and interestingly enough the only neighborhood with an increase in days on market, a result of additional inventory.

The all important spring market will be very important in determining the state of the real estate market in Boston.

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Condo Prices Shatter Record

 

Great post from Scott.

Mass condo prices shatter record

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis
Yes, condo prices are getting nutty again.

The median price of a condo in Massachusetts crossed the $300,000 threshold in January.

That’s the highest condo price ever for a January since The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, began tracking condo prices back in 1987.

It also represents a 24 percent increase from January 2013, when the median price for a condo in the Bay State was at a relatively more affordable $242,000.

By comparison, the median U.S. home price weighs in at $188,900. And that’s after a 10 percent increase in January.

Condo sales were also up by a pretty sizable 16 percent, with 1,144 units changing hands the first month of the year, The Warren Group reports.

What’s even more amazing, condo prices are not all that far behind single-family home prices in Massachusetts, with the median home price in January rising 16 percent, to $315,000.

Condos have long been a starter home alternative in pricey Greater Boston, but it’s not clear how much longer that’s going to last given current trends.

Certainly condo prices are out of sight now in Cambridge, Boston and the inner suburbs.

Of course, the price increases might be good news for sellers, but it’s hardly anything for buyers to cheer about. Even if you are trying to sell a house in order to move up into something grander, you are still going to be scrambling to keep up when prices are rising at double digits.

So what’s driving this price escalation? Some of it is due to pent-up demand, but low inventory – basically not enough listings for all the buyers out there – is the bigger problem right now.

The inventory of single-family homes dropped more than 20 percent in January compared to January 2013, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reports this morning. (There were 15,246 listings this past January, compared to 19,142 the year before.)

Condo inventory was down even more, by 27 percent, to 4,232, MAR reports.

Anyway, it should be an interesting spring market. At a time when sales and prices in many other parts of the country are starting to moderate, the market in Massachusetts kicking into high gear.

 

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U.S Real Estate Is Cheaper Than Most!

 

Boy does this post put things in perspective. An interesting world view from Colin Robertson at The Truth About Mortgage! The post is a little long and wonky but gives us a needed perspective – like that the median price in Hong Kong is $4.024M!

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

 January 21, 2014

Real Estate in the United States Is Actually Cheaper Than Most Other Parts of the World

Believe it or not, real estate in the United States is actually really cheap, assuming you compare it to what others are paying in places like Asia, Europe, Canada, and Australia.

A new report released today by Demographia compared housing affordability in 360 markets worldwide and found that the U.S. was far and away more affordable than other countries.

In its 10th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey (which relied upon data from the third quarter of 2013), the company looked at median home prices and household incomes to determine if the dream of homeownership was within reach.

They took the median home price and divided it by the median gross household income to come up with different levels of affordability.

Historically, the median multiple has been similar across the nine nations surveyed, with median home prices typically three times (or less) median household income.

[The Home Price vs. Income Rule of Thumb]

Real Estate in Hong Kong Is Reserved for the Uber Rich

cheap and expensive

But times have changed…

Using that metric, Hong Kong was the least affordable major metropolitan area in the world with a staggering median multiple of 14.9.

In Hong Kong, which is a special administrative region of China, the median household income was $270,000 as of the third quarter.

While that sounds amazingly great, the median home price was $4,024,000. In other words, good luck.

For the record, Hong Kong was the most unaffordable major market (1,000,000+ population) in the world for the fourth year in a row.

Our neighbors to the north have a pretty expensive city of their own, with Vancouver coming in second place in terms of being largely unaffordable.

There, the median home price was only $670,300, but the median household income was just $65,000. That’s a multiple of 10.3, which makes it “severely unaffordable,” according to Demographia’s definition.

The third place you’ll never be able to afford a home is in San Francisco-Oakland, California. Hey, I didn’t say everything in the U.S. was affordable…

The Bay Area had a pretty sizable multiple of 9.2, with the median home price $705,000 and median income $76,300.

The fourth spot was located down under, with Sydney boasting a multiple of 9.0 with a median $722,700 home price and $80,500 median income.

Rounding out the bottom five was San Jose, CA, with a multiple of 8.7. There, the median home price was $805,000 as of the third quarter, higher than SF. And the median income was a hefty $92,400.

Numbers six through 10 included Melbourne, Auckland, San Diego, Los Angeles, and London.  So again, lots of U.S. cities, but those are the outliers.

Unfortunately, it’s a mess that will likely never get better because severely unaffordable markets are also the most attractive to buyers looking to snag short-term profits and “extraordinary returns on investment.”

As a result, home prices in these sought-after regions rise further, thanks to what the report calls “urban containment,” or a lack of land aka supply. Then unsustainable prices in these very cities cause mass damage to the economic system.

The report also pointed out that for young households, the “California” dream requires moving to other states, such as Texas, Indiana or Georgia…

Ireland Is the Most Affordable Nation

affordability ratings

The U.S. also had 84 “affordable” markets, compared to just seven in Canada and four in Ireland. The other regions had ZERO.

Additionally, the U.S. had 100 “moderately affordable” markets, compared to just a handful in other regions of the world.

Overall, the U.S. multiple was 3.4, which is just above the affordable mark. And a lot of pricey regions like California and New York are probably skewing the data.

The only other country to beat us in terms of overall affordability was Ireland of all places. There, the multiple was a low 2.8.

The top 23 major markets were also all located in the United States, with Pittsburgh the most affordable with a 2.3 median multiple.

It was followed by Detroit with a multiple of 2.5, Grand Rapids and Rochester with multiples of 2.6, and Atlanta with a multiple of 2.7.

In all, the U.S. accounted for 40 of the 50 most affordable major markets in the world. So stop complaining! There are plenty of bargains to be had.

[Tips for First-Time Home Buyers]

Who Cares About Worldwide Home Prices?

Why should we care about housing affordability worldwide? Shouldn’t we just focus on local home prices to make real estate decisions?

Sure, it’s good to stay local. But knowing what’s going on in the world is important too.

For example, if home prices are cheap in the U.S. relative to other regions of the world, including places as close as Canada, there’s a good chance those foreigners will be looking to invest in our neighborhoods.

Assuming they do, the supply/demand picture will change, meaning home prices should get a boost. Of course, this could also make it more difficult to land that dream home too.

 

 

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Goode & Farmer Report – Boston Year End 2013

 Goode & Farmer Report – Boston Year End 2013

January 15, 2014

The challenge remains lack of inventory.

The Big Numbers are 6, 8 and 44! Combined, all Boston neighborhoods saw a 6% increase in the number of condos sold in 2013 to 4,605 from 4,361 sales in 2012. The average sales price of condominiums increased 8% to $608K from $563K in 2012. Average days on market dropped 44% to an average of only 46 days from an already historic low last year of 82. This real estate market is healthy except for the continuing decrease in inventory levels. There are only 374 condominiums for sale in downtown Boston, a slight increase from the 347 last year at this time, but still a very low number.

The Back Bay, saw a 4% increase in the average sales price of a condominium to $1.228 from $1.18M. Total sales of condos were down 12% to 474 from 537 in 2012 with the average days on market down a remarkable 44% to only 59. There are only 58 condos available for sale in the Back Bay today.

The South End saw a 7% increase in the number of condo sales to 578 from 540 condos sold last year. The average price of a condo sold increased 14% to $802K compared with $704K last year. Total sales volume was up 22% to $463M. Interestingly there are only 28 condos for sale today.

South Boston saw an 8% increase in the number of condos sold to 630 from 585 in 2012. The average sales price of a condo increased by 10% to $467K compared with $423K in 2012. South Boston had the largest drop in average days on market to only 32. There are only 54 condos on the market today.

It is so evident that inventory remains the problem in all of the downtown Boston markets, but as I have said repeatedly this market is so resilient and so desirable that declining inventory levels have not  affected the steady increase in prices in most neighborhoods. Although in some neighborhoods like Beacon Hill sales have decreased 25% to 140 from 186 last year – due to the total lack of inventory available for sale. There are a total of only 6 condos for sale on The Hill. Time will tell if this dynamic continues. The addition of Ink Block and numerous other condominium projects just may signal an end to the seemingly endless lack of inventory.

 

Boston chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope this clean and simple year end analysis of some favorite and important Boston neighborhoods has been interesting.

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Sellers No Longer Sitting So Pretty?

It is smart to pay attention to what the national market prognosticators are thinking and then digesting the information relative to our market. We need to pay attention to the NAR too. But when Lawrence Yun of NAR says, “…sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers…” we need to be a bit suspect. This doesn’t sound like a savvy sound bite from the leader of NAR, and it is not the case in our markets.  Whatever happened to the natural dynamic of the supply and demand curve Lawrence?

Substantial price jumps are unlikely

Brena Swanson of Housing Wire

As more inventory hits the housing market and buyers rebel against rising home prices, the real estate market is likely to shift from seller dominance to one that is more counterbalanced by buyer reluctance to acquire homes deemed too expensive.

The tighter inventory conditions of this recent spring and summer are going away as the spring months of next year start to approach, analysts say. Right now, builders are trying to make up for a lack of inventory with new homes,  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, claimed.

According to the latest Home Price Index report fromCoreLogic, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by only 0.2% in October when compared to September.

“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10% of their respective historical price peaks,” Fleming said.

The report comes with both good and bad news. It is good news certainly for the owners and home sellers who are getting the appreciation and housing equity increases, in addition to helping the economy in terms of consumer spending, Yun explained.

However, the report is not as positive for homebuyers. “There are still in my view a lot of potential homebuyers getting blocked out from buying due to rising home prices,” Yun said.

He added, “It is a clear signal that sellers cannot keep jacking up the prices since there is a lack of buyers. More housing inventory is coming into the market from new home construction, but it is still a sluggish pace.”

If prices increase, homebuyers may choose to step out of the market if sellers do not adjust their list prices.

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 12.5% annually in October, marking the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices.

In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

“The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates,” Nallathambi added.

Heading into 2014, sellers are still in fairly good shape with prices edging up, but they don’t have that much further to rise, CoreLogic suggests.

 

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Low Interest Rates – Forever?

Another good post by Scott.

Low interest rates today, tomorrow, forever?

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis  October 10, 2013 09:30 AM

Who knows where the economy will be by the time the Tea Party wrecking crew in Congress finally wears itself out.

But if there is any near certainty, it is the latest bout of uncertainty the nuttiness in Washington has injected into an already wobbly economy will keep interest rates at their historically low levels for some time to come.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed over the summer flirted with cutting back on its multitrillion-dollar home buyer subsidy program – known as quantitative easing – amid signs of a modest improvement in the economy.

But of course Big Ben beat a hasty retreat in September after the Fed’s well telegraphed intentions started to push up rates and spook the housing market.

Now with the threat of a slowdown or even a full blown Depression looming should Congress force the federal government to default on its debt payments, there’s zero chance the Fed will be backing off from its $85 billion a month mortgage bond buying program anytime soon.

President Obama’s choice of Janet Yellen to fill Big Ben’s shoes – she’s a strong supporter of the Fed’s cheap money policies – all but seals the deal, as economist Elliot Eisenberg notes in his daily “Laughs and Graphs” blog.

Here’s Elliot, the former chief prognosticator of the National Home Builders Association.

Given the government closure and resulting lack of economic data, the fact that Q3 GDP growth will be below 2% and that inflation remains very tame, virtually guarantees that tapering will not commence following the conclusion of the late October Fed interest rate setting meeting. Now with the formal nomination of Janet Yellen for the post of Chairman, I’m 100% sure tapering will not commence before January.

This is big news for home buyers – today’s low interest rates, hovering now at 4.25 percent for a 30 year mortgage, represent a massive government subsidy.
.
At their current, rock bottom level, today’s interest rates shave as much as 30 percent off the average monthly mortgage payment, at least compared to what it would be under more historically normal rates of 7 or 8 percent.

It’s hardly all gravy. There is a strong argument to be made that home buyers still pay for it all by having to pay more of the same house – just look at what’s happening with home prices.

But frankly most home buyers, for good or ill, aren’t looking at it that way.

 

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Goode and Farmer Report – Boston October 2013

Most Boston neighborhoods are showing a very real trend as we look at third quarter sales. The sales increases we have seen quarter after quarter are moderating. Average sales prices continue their upward trend and average days on market are plummeting. In all Boston neighborhoods combined the average total days on market has decreased an average of 47% in 2013. The number of available condos for sale has decreased an average of 6% from this time last year. Inventory numbers are at a record low of 686 condos for sale in all Boston neighborhoods.

All Boston neighborhoods combined saw an 8% increase in the average sales price of condos to $592K from $544K last year. The total number of condos sold increased 6% to 3,599 units from 3,407 last year.

The Back Bay saw a 9% increase in average sales price to $1.215M but a 9% decrease in sales from 402 in 2012 to 365 this year. The inventory of available condos is equal to last year as 73 condos are available for sale.

The South End saw a 12% increase in the average sales price to $772K from $687K in 2012 and a 15% increase in the number of sales to 463 from 427. Inventory of condos for sale decreased 13% to 63 from 72 last year.

South Boston experienced a 10% increase in average sales price to $463K from $420K. Available condos for sale increased by 54% to 88, the largest and only increase in inventory in any Boston neighborhood. The number of sales increased 4% to a total of 489 from 471 last year.

The outlier neighborhood is Beacon Hill which saw a 21 % decrease in unit sales to 110 from 139 last year but did see a 12% increase in average sales price to $892K. Average days on market decreased 57% to a Boston low of 30 days! There are only 21 condos available for sale on The Hill.

The moderating number of sales as well as the crazy decrease in days on market…shows that inventory is of course the problem. While the market continues to show resilience, declining inventory levels are beginning to impact sales as is evidenced on Beacon Hill and Back Bay.

 

Boston Q3 chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will watch the fall market closely for the effect of declining inventory levels. The addition of many units for sale in South Boston is one positive sign, and we will see what develops going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Chevron In The South End

The Chevron. Our favorite new South End building written up in Curbed Boston.

Here’s the South End’s Chevron

Wednesday, September 25, 2013, by Tom Acitelli

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[All photos for Curbed Boston by David Bates]

A year ago this week, 518 Tremont Street, one of the last free-standing retail buildings in the South End (home of the Olde Dutch Cottage Candy & Antiques store), was demolished to make way for a collection ofParisian-style condos known as The Chevron on Tremont. Up top is said Chevron a year on, close to completion.

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Above is a sliver of one of the building’s 2,500-square-foot, floor-through flats, which have retailed for around $3,100,000 and which have all gone at least under agreement, if not sold completely. Below is a view from the Chevron, courtesy of real estate agent David Bates, who has detailed the Chevron’s sales pace.

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Update: Actually, the third-floor spread is back on the market for$3,500,000.