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Why Prices Will Stay High

Good post by Scott about the effects of continued scarce inventory.

 

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Why home prices are likely to stay high

Despite talk of the need for new housing, the number of building permits being issued across Massachusetts has yet to rebound to its pre-Great Recession peak.

Building permit slowdown

Developers took out just 1,051 building permits for single-family homes during the first three months of the year, U.S. Census Bureau stats show.

That represents a 16 percent drop from the same period in 2014 and a 65 percent drop from early 2006, when the real estate market was last in boom mode.

New apartment and condo construction is doing somewhat better. Developers took out permits for 2,370 new units, or roughly double the number of single-family homes, according to Census stats.

Yet the number of total housing units is still 33 percent below where it was back in the early months of 2006.

Tough regulations

And the shortage of listings on the market has been widely blamed for pushing up home and condo prices as demand exceeds supply.

“In theory, 2014 should have been better than 2013, but it wasn’t,” said Jeff Rhuda, director of business development at Symes, a home builder in the North Shore. “In theory, you have a recovering economy, but I think 2015 will end up below 2014.”

Tough regulations in towns and neighborhoods across the Boston area are one reason for the slow recovery in housing construction, especially as it relates to single-family homes, builders contend.

“It is going to get worse.” – Jeff Rhuda, director of business development at Symes

It is also especially hard to build new single-family homes within the Route 128 beltway, where the biotech and tech sectors are booming and demand for new homes is the strongest.

A dearth of developable land combined with local restrictions has resulted in a steady decline in home building in the communities closest to Boston.

In fact, teardowns are now the only source of new homes in upscale communities like NeedhamNewtonWellesley, and Weston.

And with no major game changer in the works in terms of efforts to force local communities to open their doors to more housing, the number of homes being built in the Boston area is likely to only continue to fall, Rhuda contends.

“It is going to get worse,” he said.

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The Most Expensive Towns In Mass.

Interesting post by Scott.

 

Homes are getting more expensive all over Mass., but these towns have it worst

The cost of buying a house in Massachusetts, already one of the most expensive states in the nation, just keeps on going up.

The pattern continues

Bay State home prices rose again in April, and several Greater Boston suburbs posted some of the biggest gains.

The median price of a home in Massachusetts rose 3 percent from last year to $324,500, reports The Warren Group, which tracks home prices across the state.

Home sales fell 7.6 percent, but given that most of the initial purchase and sales agreements were inked in February amid record snowfall, with the final closings in April, the decline was likely a result of the extreme winter weather, said Timothy M. Warren Jr., The Warren Group’s chief executive.

“Prices, though, continue to rise, which tells us that the demand is there and the market is strong,” Timothy M. Warren Jr. of the Warren Group said. “Lack of inventory is the biggest problem.”

Overall, a combination of strong demand coupled with a shortage of homes for sale has helped drive prices up, experts say. Newly built starter homes are somewhat of a rarity inside Route 128, and home building numbers are down in general across the state.

“Prices, though, continue to rise which tells us that the demand is there and the market is strong,” Warren said. “Lack of inventory is the biggest problem.”

Some towns stand out

Home prices have risen across the state in the past 30 out of 31 months, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, which issued its own report. And some communities with extreme price increases also saw big dips in the amount of homes for sale.

• Milton saw its median price rise 77 percent to $753,000. The number of homes for sale dropped by nearly 12 percent, according to MAR.

• Hingham saw its median price soar past $952,000. Meanwhile, homes for sale dropped 23 percent.

• Westwood saw a 42 percent increase, to $707,000, while the number of homes on the market lowered by 6 percent.

ArlingtonMedfieldFraminghamNatickHopkintonNeedhamLexingtonMilfordNewtonNorth Andover, and Andover all saw price increases ranging from 12 to more than 30 percent. With a couple exceptions, most also saw the number of listings drop.

PeabodyQuincyRockport, and Concordsaw significant price increases as well in the 8 to 9 percent range, MAR notes.

Condo sales are more varied

Meanwhile, condo prices fell statewide by 4 percent from last year to $305,000, with sales declining by 12 percent, according to the Realtors group.

However, a number of Boston area communities bucked that trend to follow the familiar growing-prices/falling-inventory arc instead, MAR finds.

• Newton: median condo price jumped 28 percent to $675,000, while the units on the market fell by 33 percent.

• Arlington: 15 percent jump in median condo price to $472,000, coupled with a 23 percent drop in the number of properties on the market.

• Brookline: median condo price rose 14 percent to $672,000, while the number of units for sale dropped by a quarter.

• Boston: median condo price rose 11 percent to $519,000, while listings fell 15 percent.

 

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Boston’s Record Breaking Development

Great post by Scott at Boston.com

The Numbers Behind Boston’s Record-Breaking Year in Development

March 31, 2015 2:53 PM

Boston’s building boom is poised to shift into overdrive over the next few months as two big new tower projects come up for approval at City Hall.

A revised proposal to replace a four-story garage next to the TD Garden with a 46-story residential tower is working its way through the Boston Redevelopment Authority’s vetting process, said Brian Golden, director of the Boston Redevelopment Authority.

And the first of four towers that will replace the Government Center garage eyesore is also moving towards a final approval vote by the BRA’s board, Golden noted.

The progress on the big projects is the latest sign that the handoff of Boston’s development boom to Mayor Marty Walsh has apparently come off without a hitch.

During Walsh’s first year in office in 2014, the Boston Redevelopment Authority gave a green light to 62 projects across the city totaling more than $3 billion.

So far in 2015, City Hall’s development arm has approved another 16 projects, totaling more than $677 million, according to numbers complied by the agency.

“It quite literally has been one of the most active periods for building in Boston’s history.”

All told, 20 million square feet of new development has been green-lit by City Hall over the last few years but have yet to break ground, representing dozens of projects that are coming soon, according to BRA officials.

“That presents a very promising picture about all the projects that are in the pipeline and that will bear fruit in the coming two or three years,” Golden said.

Meanwhile, the amount of new office, lab, residential, and retail space currently under construction has also grown dramatically.

That number has nearly quadrupled to 15.6 million square feet, up from 4.5 million in 2012, according to Nicholas Martin, the BRA’s spokesman.

Projects that have won the blessing of city officials this year include the $290 million Fenway condo and apartment tower, The Point, and an $85 million plan to transform the Chain Forge Building in the Charlestown Navy Yard into a hotel.

“It quite literally has been one of the most active periods for building in Boston’s history,” Martin said.

The numbers also include thousands of new homes, condos, and apartments, with Walsh, like the late Mayor Thomas M. Menino before him, having pledged to make new housing a top priority.

Overall, the Walsh Administration has racked up numbers during its first 15 months in office that appear to match up favorably with Menino’s record — no small matter given Boston’s longest serving mayor’s intense focus on development issues in the city.

Under Walsh, the BRA signed off on plans for 4,158 residential units in 2014, rising to a total of 5,100 if the first three months of 2015 are included.

By comparison, City Hall’s development arm approved 3,898 residential units in 2012 when Menino was mayor. The $3.4 billion in overall development OK’d by the agency that year was on par with the $3 billion under Walsh’s first year.

Behind Boston’s development boom is a diverse economy that is spinning off jobs in a range of sectors, including high-tech, life sciences, and financial services, real estate experts say.

The Hub’s residential, hotel, retail, and office markets are some of the most highly rated in the country when it comes to interest by real estate developers, a new survey by PwC and the Urban Land Institute finds.

There is also pent up demand for new housing amid steady growth in Boston’s population as an eclectic mix of millennials, young families, and empty nesters rediscover urban living.

The big numbers should put to rest early concerns expressed by some in the business community that Walsh might slow down the pace of development in Boston, notes David Begelfer, chief executive of NAIOP Massachusetts, a trade group that represents developers from across the state.

“Things have been moving along,” Begelfer said. “Boston is in boom time right now and it’s not a bubble but a real boom. It is very rational development.”

 

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Sales Rise In Suburbs – Slow Down In Boston

Interesting dynamics in the Boston and metro Boston markets – from Scott at Boston.com.

Sales rise in suburbs, slow down in Boston.

The suburbs led the way. Several communities are actually ahead of last year’s pace when it comes to home sales, according to numbers released by The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

Cambridge proved as desirable as ever, with both condo and home sales rising markedly, as the median price of a house in the city hit $1.3 million.

Boston was more of a mixed bag; some neighborhoods posted strong numbers, but others all but fell off the map.

Overall, home sales across Massachusetts rose 4 percent in February, with the median single-family home price for the first two months of the year increasing 5 percent to $316,000, according to The Warren Group.

Condo prices rose 1.5 percent to $294,250, even as sales fell by 6 percent.

The Warren numbers, of course, only tell part of the picture, as some represent sales that were initially inked late last year, or in January of this year (before the storms) but which finally closed in February.

“The continued, sustained snowfall has been an incredible challenge for the region’s housing market,” said Dan Breault, EVP/regional director of RE/MAX of New England in a press statement. “Fortunately, spring is just around the corner and with low inventory and rising prices, we anticipate a busy spring season.”

Still, Greater Boston homebuyers proved to be a hardy bunch.

The western suburbs held up especially well, according to The Warren Group’s February housing report.

Framingham, Marlborough, Natick, Franklin, Medfield, Wayland, Lexington, Concord, Wellesley, and Weston all put in strong showings in February.

Sales so far this year are up by double digits in Framingham (20 percent), Franklin (118 percent), Concord (54 percent), Lexington (14 percent), Natick (15 percent), Wellesley (26 percent), and Needham (18 percent).

The dire cold may have made buyers stingier, as selling prices were down in a number of towns. Notable exceptions included Needham, whose median home price soared past $1 million after a 33 percent jump; Lexington, where the median price hit $875,000 after a 7.4 percent increase; and Natick and Framingham, which saw prices go up by 6 percent.

Quincy and Braintree were the stars on the South Shore, with sales for the first two months of the year rising 28 percent and 15 percent respectively. Median prices in both cities stayed just about even, at $360,000 for Quincy and $356,000 for Braintree.

North of Boston, Medford is off to a particularly fast start in 2015, with sales up 6 percent and median price up more than 10 percent, to $440,000. Sales in Reading are up 80 percent, though the median price fell 9 percent to $438,000.

But for Boston and Somerville, the latest home sales numbers for the first two months of the year had more downs than ups.

Somerville home sales plunged 36 percent, with just seven properties changing hands so far this year, while condo sales were down 14 percent. The median price of a condo dropped 6 percent, to $422,000.

In Boston, both condo and home sales were down in several neighborhoods.

South Boston saw home sales rise by a quarter, even as condo sales fell by 10 percent, while Jamaica Plain saw condo sales plunge by 25 percent, even as the median price rose nearly 20 percent to $426,500.

East Boston put in one of the strongest showings in the city, with condo sales up 46 percent for the year and the median price rising 10 percent to $385,000.

Downtown Boston saw condo sales drop by a quarter through the end of February, while the median price edged down 14 percent to $757,500.

Neda Vander Stoep, a broker in the Back Bay office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. “However, with inventory remaining low and plenty of buyers on the sidelines, properties that came on during the February storms were nonetheless quick to sell.”

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Q4 Boston…what to expect

 

What David Bates thinks about Q4!

Boston Condos in the Last Bit of 2014: What to Expect

CurbedBoston.com by Tom Acitelli

Here’s the latest installment of Bates By the Numbers, a weekly feature by Boston real estate agent David Bates that drills down into the Hub’s housing market to uncover those trends and people you would not otherwise notice.Follow him on Twitter and check out his ebook, Context: Nine Key Condo Markets, 2.0.

holiday-house_283.jpgIt’s Q4. And while Q4 is packed with holidays, let’s not forget that it’s also chock-full of home sales. Nearly 1,000 Boston condos went under agreement during the fourth quarter of 2013, and sometimes holidays and sales were linked—like last Halloween when 12 Boston condos went under agreement, what a treat. And, on Thanksgiving 2013, twoBoston condos sellers gave thanks as they signed offers with one hand and presumably held drumsticks with the other. Also, while you might have missed the real estate door-buster last Black Friday, four Boston condo buyers didn’t; they put condos under agreement that day.

Even on the night before Christmas, when all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse… three Boston condo sellers could be heard countersigning offers. At least that’s what the MLS data shows. Then, on Christmas itself, one Boston condo seller got a present they may not soon forget. It wasn’t an ugly sweater or something to be re-gifted, it was an acceptable sales price, so they wrapped up the paperwork and went on their merry way.

Will Q4 bring joy to Boston-area real estaters in 2014. Why not? There are plenty of reasons to buy this Q4. Interest rates are low; and, for many, new babies and new jobs crank up the home-buying motivation. And let’s not forget that what we often want most in a new year is positive change. Hey, what’s more positive change than a new home? In the last week of 2013, a week where almost nothing of consequence happens for most, 45 Boston condo buyers put units under agreement, guaranteeing their new year would start off on the right foot.

Today’s buyers, who for one reason or another missed the spring market, will note that more Boston condos were available for sale on Oct. 1 than were available for sale on April 1. Additionally, it is highly likely that there will be more Boston condos available on Nov. 1 than were available on May 1. So, if you like selection, put on your condo-buying shoes. Of course, while buyers note more selection, they’ll also note fewer competitors as it’s traditionally a slower time of the sales year—even more reason to buy in Q4 2014.

While there are many reasons to buy this Q4, it would be an injustice not to point out that it can be a great time to sell as well. Last year, 865Boston condo sellers listed their homes for sale in Q4. And, although Q4 is not known for its buyer quantity, it might be remembered for its buyer quality. That’s because the median list price of a Boston condo that went under agreement in December 2013 was $449,000. Heck, the median list price of a Boston condo that went under agreement in April 2013 was only $429,900. Can there be any doubt that holiday décor and wishes for joy, peace and goodwill toward all adds to home values?
· Our Bates By the Numbers archive [Curbed Boston]

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Three Boston Neighborhoods With A September To Remember

 

An interesting post from Curbed.com.

 

Three Hub Condo Markets Have a September to Remember

Thursday, October 16, 2014, by Tom Acitelli
Here’s the latest installment of Bates By the Numbers, a weekly feature by Boston real estate agent David Bates.

up-arrow.jpgIf September was the month that you were supposed to put down the home sale and pick up the homework, then nobody told the CambridgeSomerville and South End condominium markets. In Cambridge, the number of condominiums that went under agreement in September 2014 was 53 percent greater than did so in September 2013. In the South End, September under-agreements were up 64 percent. And versus September 2013, Somerville’s under agreements were up 18 percent and the median list price of Somerville under-agreements was up an impressive 20 percent.

These significant sales gains were in sharp contrast to the weak and somewhat flat results of many other Hub condo markets. In Back Bay, 17 percent fewer condominiums went under agreement in September 2014 than in September 2013. And, in Charlestown, September under-agreements were off 29 percent compared with the year before.

What was the leading indicator of how a market fared in 2014 versus 2013? Inventory, of course. In Cambridge, 40 percent more listings came to market this September versus last. The South End listed 20 percent more condos than it did in September 2013. In contrast, the Back Bay (-23 percent) and Charlestown (-23 percent) markets had significantly fewer condominium listings come to market than they had last September.

The increase in for-sale inventory and the advantageous market conditions combined to make this the best September for Cambridge pending sales since 2007. As well, according to MLS, data it was the best South End September for pending sales in at least as long. In Somerville, where nearly three times as many condominiums went under agreement as did in September 2011, it might have been the best ever September.

Will the uptick in pending sales continue in these key Hub markets for the rest of the year? It will depend on the amount of sale-able inventory that comes to market.
· Our Bates By the Numbers archive [Curbed Boston]

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Boston Metro Luxury Town Rundown

 

Interesting post from Scott about the “W” towns.

 

Luxury Towns

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Thumbnail image for 190 Pond Road, Wellesley.jpg

The luxury market is red hot right now. And the suburban epicenter for multimillion-dollar home sales in the Bay State can be found in the suburbs of Wellesley and Weston.

High-end sales have always been big in these two coveted suburbs. Now both towns are nearing the point where practically all sales are in the luxury price ranges, a new report by Wellesley-based Pinnacle Residential Properties finds.

A total of 274 homes were sold in Wellesley and Weston during the first seven months of 2014. Of these, just ten homes changed hands for $600,000 or less, with just three selling for less than $400,000.

By contrast, more than twice as many homes in the two W towns – 21 – sold for $3 million and up through the end of July, Pinnacle finds. (This five bed, eight bath manse, at 190 Pond Road in Wellesley, is now on the market for $5.2 million after a price cut of $100,000.)

Another 131 homes sold in the $1 million to $2 million price range during the same period in Wellesley and Weston, the report finds.

So as the W towns go, so goes the state? Well, not exactly. Still, luxury sales are on fire in upper income towns and neighborhoods across Massachusetts right now. The number of homes fetching $3 million and up has jumped by more than 30 percent compared to 2013, Pinnacle reports.

“It has certainly been a strong year for the trade-up and luxury markets,” writes Elaine Bannigan, the report’s author and owner and founder of Pinnacle Residential Properties.

 

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Four Reasons To Buy Before Winter

 

A great post below from the KCM crew.

 

4 Reasons to Buy Before Winter

by  on September 8, 2014 in For Buyers

4 Reasons to Buy Before Winter | Keeping Current Matters
It’s that time of year, the seasons are changing and with them bring thoughts of the upcoming holidays, family get togethers, and planning for a new year. Those who are on the fence about whether now is the right time to buy don’t have to look much farther to find four great reasons to consider buying a home now, instead of waiting.

1. Prices Will Continue to Rise

The Home Price Expectation Survey polls a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. Their most recent report released recently projects appreciation in home values over the next five years to be between 11.2% (most pessimistic) and 27.8% (most optimistic).

The bottom in home prices has come and gone. Home values will continue to appreciate for years. Waiting no longer makes sense.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Projected to Increase

Although Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have softened recently, most experts predict that they will begin to rise later this year. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors are in unison projecting that rates will be up almost a full percentage point by the end of next year.

An increase in rates will impact YOUR monthly mortgage payment. Your housing expense will be more a year from now if a mortgage is necessary to purchase your next home.

3. Either Way You are Paying a Mortgage

As a recent paper from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University explains: “Households must consume housing whether they own or rent. Not even accounting for more favorable tax treatment of owning, homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord plus a rate of return. That’s yet another reason owning often does—as Americans intuit—end up making more financial sense than renting.”

4. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. It appears that both are on the rise. But, what if they weren’t? Would you wait? Look at the actual reason you are buying and decide whether it is worth waiting. Whether you want to have a great place for your children to grow up, you want your family to be safer or you just want to have control over renovations, maybe it is time to buy.

Bottom Line

If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

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Boston Condo Record

WOW!

Boston Condo Goes for Record

Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Four Seasons, luxuryboston.jpg

 

A condo sold at the Four Seasons came close to hitting the $3,000 a square foot mark.

That’s the word from Kevin Ahearn, chief executive of one of downtown Boston’s leading luxury marketing and condo sales firm.

Unit 1201 at the Four Seasons, fetched $10.5 million back in May in a quiet deal involving only a few brokers.

The final sale price weighed in at $2,908 square feet for the four-bedroom, three-and-a-half bath penthouse.

That’s the highest amount paid to date, on a per-square-foot basis, for a Boston condo, Ahearn believes.

“Big jumps in pricing are occurring,” Ahearn said. “We don’t see any slowdown, in fact we see an acceleration.”

At 3,525 square feet, the Four Seasons condo is the size of a large suburban home, but with with upper floor views of the Back Bay and Public Garden.

Given just a few months ago all the hype in the market was about a few units that managed to break the $2,000-a-square-foot mark, Boston condo prices are clearly on a tear.

The Four Season penthouse was last sold in back in the summer of 2000 for $6.3 million – some pretty decent price appreciation there.

“It is indicative of very significant upward pressure on prices,” Ahearn said.

Well you can say that again.

 

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Fabulous Ink Block In Boston

great post by Scott!

From Tabloid to Hip Condos

Link|Comments ()Posted by Scott Van Voorhis

Location, location, location – that’s what real estate is all about. And the new Ink Block, taking shape where the South End meets Chinatown, has it in spades.

The glitzy glass-and-steel, six-building condo and apartment development is taking shape on Harrison Ave., where the big old brick red Boston Herald building stood until it was demolished last year.

As a reporter at the Herald back in the 2000s, the location couldn’t be beat. Need to get to Beacon Hill? No problem, that’s a 20 minute walk. Press conference in the Back Bay – be there in 15 minutes. Hungry? Let’s head across the street to Chinatown. Or for that matter, around the corner to the South End, a restaurant paradise. No car needed – just you and your two feet. (OK, I’m tall and a pretty fast walker, but still.)

That location, which was great for reporters, will be even better for the residents of the $500 million Ink Block, with the city and its attractions literally at their feet.

A total of six buildings are planned, each featuring a unique design inspired by the South End and intended to be an antidote to the Boston’s increasingly hard to tell apart bevy of new luxury condo towers, Ted Tye, managing director of National Development, tells me.

“There is so much being built in the city these days that is very generic – you can’t tell whether you are in the Seaport, the Back Bay, or the South End,” Tye says.

Final Sepia Hero Night.jpg

 

More than 60 percent of the units at the Sepia, the project’s 83 unit condo building, are already spoken for, Tye tells me. (Herald, Ink Block, Sepia – you get the theme.)

Prices range from $500,000 for a studio to over $2 million for a penthouse unit. The condos come with balconies large enough to actually recline in a chair and take in the city skyline, with a neat rooftop hangout spot, complete with an outdoor kitchen.

The developer’s initial proposal to build condos at the Herald site drew its fair share of skeptics a few years back, with condos still recovering from the downturn. Now demand is soaring, condos are hot, and Tye feels vindicated.

“On Sepia, the idea has been to create luxury condos and really take advantage of being in the South End,” Tye said. “We bet a couple years ago the condo market would come back. We took a risk.”

Beyond skyline views – the project is taking shape roughly where the Herald’s publisher once held court in a suite facing the city – some additional treats are in store as well for Sepia residents.

A 50,000 square foot Whole Foods is also taking shape at the site, along with a bevy of what will hopefully be some hip new restaurants, in keeping with the South End’s proud culinary traditions.

There are also some extra perks for residents, who can enter the store directly from the Sepia without going outside, and then head back up the elevator, groceries bags in hand, to their condos. Or they can take a plunge in the rooftop pool that is being built on the roof of the grocery store.

Three apartment buildings are well underway now, with openings planned for early 2015.
Named Ink Block One, Two and Three, each takes a different design theme from the South End. Ink Block Two, for example, will feature loft style units with a black and white color theme.

While the Ink Block is a great launching pad from which to explore Boston, the immediate area around the project wasn’t always much to write home about.

In fact, the old Herald, when it was standing, was an outpost of zaniness amid a no-man’s land of sprawling parking lots, a homeless shelter, and the occasional streetwalker.

But the streets around the emerging Ink Block are on their way to becoming a residential hot spot, with a number of projects taking shape in the area.

The Ink Block itself was deliberately designed with six different buildings in a bid to give the project more a vibrant neighborhood feel, Tye notes.

Stay tuned.